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Reflect & Market Overview | Week 8
Reflection on last week's lesson
Last week, "$4k Minimum Trading Size | Y2023W7", trading less is paying off. I no longer have those extreme levels of exhaustion or fatigue where I make massive mistakes. So 90-120 minutes is going well (ideally even 90 minutes). I want to continue doing that.
My stats were overall okay for the fact that opportunities last week were basically nonexistent. A lot of sub-dollars, traps, failed momo and big Macro drops. R:R was overall good. Total winners at 40% is low but that highlights the bad opportunities and follow through as well as the only 40 trades I did. The biggest concern is the largest losing trade which % wise isn't bad but $ wise was quite large. Luckily this concern isn't too urgent as it was an accident trade, I accidentally used more size on a lower-quality setup than I should have due to a calculation mistake.
SPY Trend
$SPY had technically a break in the trend but it could be a bear trap. Either way, I'd like to see and I expect to see at some point in the future (maybe not this week) a retest of the big $392 support zone. The question is will we see a blow off past $420 before or only after?
Gameplan - | Day Trading | Swing Trading | Crypto Trading
Important Macro Scheduled Events
https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar
| Wednesday February 22 2023 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||||||
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| 02:00 PM |
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FOMC Minutes | ||||||||
| Friday February 24 2023 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||||||
| 08:30 AM |
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Personal Income MoM JAN | 0.2% | 1% | 0.7% |
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| 08:30 AM |
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Personal Spending MoM JAN | -0.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
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| 08:30 AM |
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Core PCE Price Index MoM JAN | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
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Gappers Still Holding & New Ones On Watch (adding new tickers here throughout the week)
View post on Former Top Gainer (gappers) Stocks On Watch, On Ice, & RIP.
This Week's Broader Gameplan
2 BIG macro drops Wednesday and Friday. This could result in a continued kangaroo market before we have clear direction from the fed. Luckily Wednesday's drop is not pre-market and we could see some nice momo pre-market until Friday unless we just continue the trend from last week which was a total small-cap disappointment.
Ideally, my avg $size at the end of the week should be as close to or above $5k. I want no less than $4k base size and when there is a setup with multiple pattern alignment I should be doing 2x+ size. If this week goes well (is green) I'd like to increase to $5k base size.
Monday Feb 20
General Gameplan
Markets Closed (Washington's birthday)
Macro / SPY Observations & News
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Live Record (Wrap-up & Trade Reviews In Video Description)
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Tuesday Feb 21
General Gameplan
People should be eager to be back after 3 day weekend plus don't expect hungover traders BUT we do have a big carnival holiday in Germany but not so many traders here. I think people want to get in some clean trading before tomorrow's macro drops start. In the end, we can only trade the reality the markets present us.
No pre-7 AM tickers over 40% yet. ARBE on the horizon at 30% could see some potential.
Macro / SPY Observations & News
Biden says "he'll back Ukraine as long as it takes". That will surely spook the market as that is a high level in uncertainty in terms of costs and direct and indirect ripple effects.
Live Record (Wrap-up & Trade Reviews In Video Description)
Wednesday Feb 22
General Gameplan
Search for the 5m or daily trend. Avoid sketchy new gappers.
Macro / SPY Observations & News
2 PM EST today will be busy. Don't be in a trade leading up to it!
Yesterday was the worst day in the markets this year. No wonder I got stopped out so many swings. The market is nervous with the fed decision and I don't think the Biden Ukraine news is helping. The winter storm is also not going to help much.
Live Record (Wrap-up & Trade Reviews In Video Description)
Thursday Feb 23
General Gameplan
Yesterday was super sloppy for me. Today focus on less is more and the two strategies. Either active frontside or passive support.
Macro / SPY Observations & News
No macro drops today. This could be a good opportunity for smalls to rip.
Also besides the massive winter storm in the US no major news drops that could affect the market.
Live Record (Wrap-up & Trade Reviews In Video Description)
Friday Feb 24
General Gameplan
Take the profits I can and call it. If nothing happens pre-market nap and then watch around 10 AM again for 15-30 min to review.
Macro / SPY Observations & News
8:30 Macro Personal Spending Drop comes out. Beware.
Besides news of the Ukraine war's 1 year anniversary and the massive storm in the US leaving 1 million homes powerless. The market may have some potential today. Not too optimistic.
Live Record (Wrap-up & Trade Reviews In Video Description)
Insider Review
At the end of every week don't forget to join us for our weekly group calls where we break down the biggest lessons of verified traders followed by Q&A sessions. Full playlist here: Insiders Trading Podcast
Quick Overview
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My Lesson
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My Notes From Other Insiders
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News | Know Your Macro!
I have about 30 tabs that auto-open when I click my "NEWS" bookmark folder which contains a bunch of news sites, portfolio analytics, charts, upcoming US gov reports and more things along that line. One app I'm always a big fan of and complete read through is the MorningBrew daily newsletter. I find it hits most topics every day.
