chop, FOMO, Guessing/Gambling,

chop, FOMO, Guessing/Gambling,

chop, FOMO, Guessing/Gambling,

chop, Range Fake Out,

10AM Data, 8:30 DATA, chop, Consumer Sentiment , H12 Bullish Trend Failure, H12 Line In The Sand, M15 Bearish Orderblock, M30 Bearish Trend Shift Signal, Personal Income And Outlays, VWAP Upperband short,

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July 26, 2024

• Trade Entry Time: 9:29 AM
• Asset: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 10 AM Data
  • 8:30 DATA
  • Chop
  • Consumer Sentiment
  • H12 Bullish Trend Failure
  • H12 Line In The Sand
  • M15 Bearish Orderblock
  • M30 Bearish Trend Shift Signal
  • Personal Income And Outlays
  • VWAP Upperband Short

Notes:

• Initial Bias: Long off the open.
• Market Expectation: Response to economic data releases (10 AM, 8:30 AM) and market reaction to consumer sentiment and personal income/outlays data.
• Trade Plan: Short at the VWAP Upperband with expectation of continuation downward post-data releases.

10:06 AM:

• Two losses on trap longs. VWAP action was unproductive.

10:20 AM:

• Contemplated M15 entry but decided against it due to poor R/R.
• Preference for extremity trades at VWAP bands.

10:49 AM:

• Shorted at the area signaled long by the M15 chart.
• Marketed short, breakeven OTD.

11:40 AM:

• Boring session, stuck in a tight range.
• Down $56, aiming to get green OTD.

12:43 PM:

• Frustrated by false signals and missed opportunities.
• Could have been profitable if long at LOD liquidity sweep.

1:38 PM:

• Passed evaluation despite multiple chop outs OTD.
• Noted necessity for deep journaling to avoid future stop outs.
• Recognized over-risking, but trading with weekly profits.

Key Points:

• Right:
  • Accurate identification of bearish signals and alignment with economic data.
  • Entry aligned with multiple timeframe confirmation (H12, M15, M30).
  • Recognized importance of journaling and addressing chop outs.
• Wrong:
  • Multiple stop outs and false signals due to choppy VWAP action.
  • Over-risking despite weekly profits.
  • Missed key liquidity sweep long opportunity.
• New Rules Learned:
  • Implement a rule for avoiding chop outs.
  • Prioritize order blocks alignment:
    • Shorts: Higher timeframe order blocks should be above lower timeframe order blocks.
    • Longs: Higher timeframe order blocks should be below lower timeframe order blocks.
  • Limit trading to 1 micro contract for the first 10 days of being funded.

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Overall Summary

Strengths:

• Strong market analysis and ability to identify traps.
• Effective use of playbook trade principles.
• Recognized need for risk management and journaling.

Weaknesses:

• Struggled with choppy price action and false signals.
• Over-risking and missing key opportunities.
• Need for better confirmation signals to avoid multiple stop outs.

New Key Rules Learned:

1. Reassess timing and confirmation signals before re-entering trades.
2. Incorporate additional data points to strengthen the thesis.
3. Implement order block alignment rules for better trade confirmation.
4. Limit trading to 1 micro contract for the first 10 days of being funded to manage risk.

Overall Performance:

• The week involved a mix of strong analysis and execution issues due to choppy market conditions.
• Important lessons on trade confirmation, risk management, and order block alignment learned for future improvement.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9:29AM. Looking for longs off open atm, would write more detailed but I have 30 seconds.

10:06AM. Ive taken 2 loses on trap longs. Garbage action at the VWAP. 

10:20AM. This is seriously awful price action. I am currently following a rule of going to the next timeframe over if my entry fails. So far I have been stopped out of M2 & M5. I am contemplating M15, but I honestly dont think I want to take the trade. I would prefer an extremity at the VWAP bands at this point. Im thinking to trust a VWAP trade for the 3rd time would be a mistake, also because the R/R would put me at negative R Multiple from the 15M chart.

10:49AM. I took a short at the area where the M15 chart signaled long. I wasnt comfortable taking the trade after that type of trade stopped me out 2 times prior. Also, because of the negative R Multiple, I just marketed short and it got me bascially at breakeven OTD.

11:40AM. Pretty boring trading session, stuck in a tight range, chopping the VWAP with no extremities trade opportunities. Down around $56 on the session. Looking to just get green OTD so I can walk.

12:43 What a stupid fucking trading session. Shit is so fucking annoying. Just constantly giving me flase signals over and over again. If I just took the fucking long trade at the sweep of liquidity lower at LOD, id be up on fucking session and could have walked already. 

1:38PM Passed my evaluation, multiple chop outs OTD, and we will have to do some deep journaling this week to figure out how to avoid that many stop outs in the future. But we put our money where our mouth was. Took on a bit too much risk to be honest. But we were playing with some profits on the week. 

It doesnt matter how much profit we made OTW in theory, because we are against trailing drawdown. 

Trading the M30 trend shift would have resulted in the least amount of drawdown upon entry for the trading session.

I also could have avoided squeeze loses but waiting for the break below the upperband, in which this case, we were trending above from the area we broke out of.

I also think that following the rule of going to the next timeframe higher upon each stopout, would really help with mitigating my risk. 

 

This was a very difficult trading session due to many mixed signals on my days VWAP. I was thinking long, which was the first initial move. I just got chopped out of all of my variation signals. And the moment I tried to trade against the range, I got squeezed. But ultimately, the trade OTD that worked was off of yesterdays orderblock signals, from M30 orderblocks down to the M2 Orderblocks. That was in confluence with another H12 bullish trend attempt and fakeout for a move lower. The only difference with todays setup was that the H12 candle didnt sweep the Buy Side Liquidity from the orderblocks presented before it dropped. Thats why this action was so tricky. It was a fight for price the entire time, and my trend shift signals kept going off, I will have to implement rules that keep me from getting chopped out like this in the future.

The short rejection came from the prior day 15 Minute Bearish Orderblock. The orderblock sequence was larger timeframe orderblocks lower to higher. As the timeframes granually got shorter as the orderblocks went higher, (as it should during a short trade) this M15 bearish orderblock was ABOVE the 5 minute and 2 minute bearish orderblocks. In the future, I will have to make sure that I implement it as a rule, that if there is an inconsistency with orderblocks in relation to their location, that will be the new A+ orderblock rule.

I will make it official

(New Trading Rule For Orderblocks)

Order blocks that come from shorts, tend to come from lower timeframes the higher the orderblock

Orderblocks that come from longs, tend to come from lower timeframes the lower the orderblock

Our new rule is

***If an orderblock from a higher timeframeframe is above an orderblock from a lower timeframe for a short, that will be our short signal***

***If an orderblock from a higher timeframe is below an orderblock from a lower timeframe for a long, that will be our  long signal.***

 

 

NOW THAT YOU ARE FUNDED, YOU **MUST MUST MUST** NOT TRADE MORE THAN 1 MICRO ON ANY GIVEN TRADE FOR **AT LEAST** THE FIRST 10 TRADING DAYS OF BEING FUNDED. YOU SIMPLY CANNOT EXECUTE TRADES WITH THE SAME AMOUNT OF RISK YOU HAVE USED TO PASS THIS EVALUATION. OUR MAIN PRIORITY IS SIMPLY GETTING OUR FIRST PAYOUT. MAKING TRADING BECOME REAL, SEEING SOMETHING IN RETURN FOR THE YEARS OF HARD WORK AND DEDICATION YOU HAVE PUT TOWARDS THIS CRAFT. YOU OWE IT TO YOURSELF, AND YOU DESERVE IT. 

IF YOU TAKE 1 MICRO CONTRACT WITH YOUR SYSTEM, YOU WILL BE ABLE TO INCREASE YOUR TRADING FREQUENCY, BUILD THE CONFIDENCE FOR HITTING THE BUY OR SELL BUTTON AND GETTING RID OF FEAR AND HESITATION, HELPING YOU FINE TUNE YOUR STRATEGY IN THE PROCESS SO THAT YOU CAN HELP DEVELOP YOUR PLAYBOOK AND TRADING RULES. 

WITH GOOD TRADES YOU SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO MAKE AROUND 250-300 BUCKS TRADING A DAY. AND AFTER THE 10 DAY PERIOD, THAT IS A 2500 PAYOUT, 5K A MONTH, 

LETS DO THIS.

 

 

chop,

Bought in small size on a pull back.

chop,

Lucky trade. Small sized this one because I wasn't sure. Still lots of chop. A little bit of a breakout after descending triangle? Still hitting resistance at 1800 so keeping eye on that. Expecting a steep drop. 

chop,

Chop, not winning in trades for a while now, market all over the place. I need to stay calm and just let the trend be my friend. Stick to my strategy and place buys on the way down, sell on the way up .