Juli Futures Stats

Buying Absorption, key levels,

Premarket plan: ES in the bigger picture is making higher highs which shows that bulls are in control. My idea is that pullbacks should be getting bought up. With that being said I am watching for a pull back into 4414-4407 to gauge the market to see how it reacts. It has been an area where buyers have been interested and many rallys higher have happened. If we are able to pull into this level and see strong buying I am willing to go long targeting the next supply at 4430 which is a daily demand zone. However, if we do see selling through this level, I am interested in playing the market short targeting the lows of yesterdays action and then demand lower. 

Market Context: Market opened up and pulled into 4416 where there was a large passive order. It got filled with a lot of selling but no move lower. A few minutes later it pulled into that level again, broke the lows, and rallied once again showing that there are trapped sellers at the low. It was not a few minutes later that market pulled back into that level and showed better signs of buying.

Where/Why did I enter: I entered around 9:48 where I saw the 3 pullback into that level that absorbed the bid. I was interested in playing long for mulitple reasons: Delta was showing lots of selling at lows, Was at a key level, and every push lower followed with stronger buying

Where/Why did I exit. I was looking for the opening high to break in order for me to be more comfortable with the trade as I knew that we were in low volume conditions and we have to keep our targets smaller. I also know that because there was low volume it could be a case of "Stairs up Elevator Down". We pushed into the open and I saw that we had a small pullback. I closed my position in that pullback to be safe.

What I did Right: I had a really good entry at the lows and noticed the selling that was getting absorbed. I was also playing off a key level which was supporting it really well. I was also patient enough to wait for the market to develop a little more before entering in any trade.

How I can improve: One main thing I can improve on, HOLDING MY POSITION. There are many moments where I am leaving a lot of money on the table because of a small pullback. Pullbacks are inevitable and they are bound to happen. There is rarely going to be a shot up into the target level and that is what I need to work on. I got scared from that small pullback at the highs and lost the opportunity of an amazing trade that hit exactly at my target. ONLY CLOSE A POSITION AT STOP LOSS OR TAKE PROFIT. A PULL BACK SHOULD NOT SCARE YOU JULI

 

pullback, Resistance Rejection,

Pre Market Plan: CPI came out and it came out pretty bullish. Over the past two days we broke out of the range and are now rallying so bulls are in control. My levels of interest are 4187-4181 to see if bulls can buy any dips. If buying pressure is good then I would like to play long targeting the high of day and then 4430 supply. For bearish scenario I am looking at 4430 to see if we can find any sellers or if we are able to break belown 4187-4181. I would then like to target 30 min supply @4367 but better target would be 4354. I want to also look at the VX and how the volatility is . If the VX is able to bid above 19.4 then a chance of a selloff is better. If not expect dips to get bought up

Market Context: We were bouncing off 4406-4403 level intraday with a lot of volume. We broke down later in the day with heavy selling and was interested in playing a pullback into that level due to the liquidity that was being provided before. 

Where/Why did I enter: I entered when we pulled into that range and saw a bit of rejection. I entered in short with 3 contracts. I later entered later again after we saw more weakness and bigger selling. During that selling I also accidently entered in long which caused me a small L. I have to more cautious when closing my short positions. 

Where/Why did I exit: I exited both trades at my 3 point stop loss. I respected my stop loss as there was no selling that made us go lower which caused a further move up.

What I did well: I respected my stop loss and was patient. I also didnt let the emotions get to me and closed my computer after the second L. 

How can I improve: I can be more patient with my trades and not take any trades where there is lackluster and no volume. Just because I am trading futures does not mean I should not account for volume anymore. All day it was chop action which indicated no big move. 

Delta profile, pullback,

I dont remember much from this trade all I know is that I saw a large amount of value being built up and I took the market long. Delta was strong here too which was an additional bonus

Delta profile, pullback, Volume Profile,

Today was not a good day and a day to learn from. I gave back a whole week of profits for overtrading. One thing I have to get into my head is that it doesn't matter who is around because youre not trying to impress them but rather do this for yourself. This whole time I had the idea that I had to be green in order to prove a point and that made me overtrade. There was also a lot of fighting the trend which I should not be doing. Play levels and that is simple. Big day of loss and a day to learn from but we recover from the loss and start to acknowledge the market and when it presents opportunity. I also had a lot of bias watching the /VX and believing that since it was at a key level that couldnt break. We were going to sell off. Its a good analysis and the first trade was okay to take an L from because we can not always be right, however I overtraded today which is not ideal and caused me to lose a large chunk of profits and momentum. The moment my area of delta broke I should have disregarded the short trade and tried to go long.

Another thing I did wrong is not wait for my levels to trigger. If I would have waited for it to come to my level then I could have not taken the trade. Its better to see and wait the market does at your levels.

Delta profile, key levels, pullback, Volume Profile,

 

Thesis: Get Long above 4134 which is a key level and I would not like to see it act as resistance

Market Context: We sold off below 4134 but my ideal play is always a retest. However I noticed strong buyingn at the lows (4170) and sellerstrying to push lower but would get bought up. Where/Why did I enter: I actually took two trades. First trade I took a trade speculating strong buying above 4134, however we broke above it with strong buying volume but no continuation which is a red flag in my book (do not want to be a trapped buyer). My second trade when we pulled back at 4134-4130. I loved the volume which was represented in these areas and there was a lot of buying as well (delta column). I took the trade @4135 with a 3 point stop loss which is my sweet spot for risk.

Where/ Why did I exit: I exited at my 4185 level which has shown to be a level of support that turned into resistance. I sold 1 contract at the top once we hit it and sold another one once we saw that we could not break above. There was a lot of liquidity at this area as the ask built up the closer we moved to the level.

How can I improve: Honestly I think this was a textbook trade. There is always room for improvement when it comes to trading but I believe this trade was a flawless one which I give a pat on my back for. Perhaps I could have sized up due to the confidence in this trade and this is something I could learn from. Believing more in my trading capabilities.

What I did well: Held to my target. Biggest flaw with my trading as I feel like I go with the motto "Green is green" but for this trade I held to my target. Also patience was really good here as I waited for that pullback.

Confirmations: Strong Buying, Pullback, Huge ask at TP level, Respect of my key level

Entry: 4175 Stop Loss: 4172 Target: TP 1 4185; TP 2 4190 Take profit: 4185 RR: 1: 3.334