I caught an upperband to lowerband short, as I came into this trading session looking for an 'easy money trade'.
I was stop hunted on the first move, and immediately re entered on the second variation, with slightly bigger size, because the stoploss was tighter.
I hit my first take profit, and had a lower takeprofit on my second partial, but unfortunately was wicked out, trail stopping on the 5 minute chart, and as Im typing this now, it is almost at my second take profit for my partial.
It is what it is, I guess I could have just left the second partial with a stopout at breakeven instead, but I really wasnt interested in doing that because I wanted to at least make over 100 dollars today. What really messed me up a little bit was the first stopout, because I likely would have just covered 2 contracts on the first take profit, but because I was barely up on the day after covering a partial from the first initial loss, I wanted to let the second trade run, and if it came back to breakeven, woulda been a pretty crap trading day profit wise, so... read price correctly, just got unlucky on the trail stop grab.
I accidentally left a fucking limit order at my second tp and it filled me long and I got destroyed on the position and gave back over 100 dollars. So fucking annoying.
No trade day for me. Just watched from the sidelines as I didnt see any setups worth taking, because no daily levels were hit for me to take anything off of.
Not the VWAP, Upperband, Lowerband, moving average, or any key levels in the center. I had marked prior.
The market also closed basically near its opening price on the day for the 9:30 session, so the real trade of the day was another long near 19600 in the overnight, or just simply buy at the open after the fed rate decision.
For now, were are close to trading into a monthly draw on liquidity and key level, so I have to be careful trading around these areas, as they have been the kryptonite to my trading success, between the monthly and weekly levels.
So far, adding extra day candle analysis has greatly improved my trading and directional bias. Since there isnt such a big discrepancy between the 1 day and weekly chart.
You felt that your trading approach has leveled up, emphasizing the value of journaling and preparation. This shift from impulsive execution to a data-driven strategy, along with the influence of Lance’s quote about work outside of trading, has led to more focused and patient trading.
Focusing on Expected Value Dynamics and waiting for full reactions off key levels has sharpened your decision-making, boosting your confidence.
Strong Execution During FOMC:
You executed with a bullish bias based on solid technical reasons, including a weekly trend shift and untapped liquidity. This analysis led to your best trading day on the evaluation, earning over $600 with just 2 micros, indicating improved performance and risk management.
Adaptability and Use of VWAP:
You adjusted your strategy by utilizing a longer-term VWAP on the 5-minute chart to confirm entries. This led to a better, more accurate entry from the lower band, reinforcing the importance of using higher timeframe VWAPs in volatile markets.
Although you fought for price on the 1-minute chart and faced two stopouts, you recognized that sticking to the 5-minute VWAP would have provided a more optimal, no-drawdown entry.
Awareness of Weekly Bearish Orderblock:
Despite the bullish bias, you noted the importance of the weekly bearish orderblock that triggered towards the session's end. You plan to monitor closely how the weekly trend interacts with this key resistance level in the next trading session.
Contract Rollover Anomaly:
You observed an interesting discrepancy between /MNQU24 and /NQ regarding the quarterly draw on liquidity, suggesting that different contracts are giving you different reads on price action. You plan to track this during future rollovers to better understand which contracts hold more weight.
Patience and Decision-Making:
You demonstrated patience in waiting for your bullish setup to develop, but you also reflected on the importance of simplifying your entry approach by relying more on the higher timeframe charts, which would have prevented multiple stopouts.
Key Learnings and Adjustments:
Journaling and Preparation: Continue to prioritize reviewing and refining your system outside of market hours, as this has significantly improved your trading approach.
Stay Focused on Higher Timeframes: Rely more on the 5-minute chart for entry confirmation instead of fighting for price on the 1-minute, which can lead to unnecessary stopouts.
Monitor Weekly Bearish Orderblock: Pay close attention to how the weekly bearish orderblock and the new trend shift interact in the next session, as this could signal an important turning point for future trades.
Track Contract Rollover Discrepancies: Stay vigilant regarding discrepancies in liquidity levels between contracts during rollovers to avoid confusion or misreading price action.
This session highlights your growth as a trader and how detailed analysis, patience, and preparation have led to improved results.
Woke up a bit late, around 10:00AM because my alarm clock didnt go off.
Noticed price action was basically untradable on the open, and luckily I fell asleep yesterday while monitoring price action, because the overnight long theory didnt play out, It played out during todays trading session.
I traded this FOMC like a true elite trader, and I really feel like im stepping into the next level up in my trading career, and I definitely believe that journaling is part of the reason why. As soon as I decided to take a data backed approach to trading, rather than an executional and high pressure decision based trading, it feels like that has put me into the next level. And a quote from Lance hit me hard, and that is, his workday actually starts when the trading day ends. Its all about what you do when the markets not trading, and how you are fine tuning your trading system, and identifying what works well and what doesnt. He compared his quote to a basketball game, where if a professional, only got hours in when they were in game, but never practiced or fine tuned the small things off of the court, then they would fall short during the game, and thats exactly how trading is. Your simply waiting for your setup.
Those quotes, coupled with the concepts of 'Expected Value Dynamics' and trading the "Right Side of The V" has dramatically changed my trading, Because now, I am waiting for full reactions off of the levels im interested in, and my risk is defined, and my edge is high.
With that being said, I came into this trading session (FOMC interest rate decision) with a bullish outlook, specifically because, we shifted trend on the weekly timeframe, and had untapped liquidity and an unfinished auction to the upside, and also, broke the 4 day bearish orderblock weekly trend. So i seen this setup quietly approaching under the radar, while everyone was bearish for the most part.
I like how consistent I have been as well for this evaluation, it has taken alot of pressure off of me not having to worry about trailing drawdown, breakeven trades, and letting them just work. I also had my biggest trading day so far on this evaluation, with only 2 micros. Making over $600 on the day.
When I was in my trade, it was for sure the trade of the day setup at that time, but one thing I have to take note of is how the market closed today, and it closed with a trade of the day setup, favoring bears with a short from the weekly bearish orderblock. This is something that im going to have to monitor closely going into tomorrow. And that is, how I should approach the trading day with the right bias, when the weekly bullish trend shift has occured, at the same time that the weekly bearish orderblock bas been triggered, withoutn tapping into the weekly buyside liquidity to the upside.
So we have a new weekly high, weekly trend shift, weekly orderblock all around the same vicinity. with the draw on liquidity, shifting way to the upside on the next deviation timeframe, (Monthly) at 20262.25.
Im noticing something extremely interesting, and that is, on the new contract roll over for the nasdaq, its displaying that the quarterly draw on liquidity has been breached, which is the first time im seeing this, because on all of the other contracts, it doesnt display that. Im looking at /NQ now, and it is giving me a completely different read of price action, so this is something we are going to have to get to the bottom of. /MNQU24 (prior contract) is also displaying the same thing, that the quarterly draw on liquidity hasent been breached. So we will have to track this closely by the time the next contract rollover comes around. and see is the newer contracts/or older contracts hold more weight.
Now, when I was analyzing an entry for the day, I noticed that, the 1 day VWAP might not have been the best choice, because I felt that price would go higher, but there were so many support levels below in which price could have bounced off of, that I couldnt gauge what would be the best one, so I simply decided to throw on a longer term VWAP on my 5 minute chart, for double the confirmation, and I am very glad I did, because it gave me a great entry from the lowerband, with a bearish to bullish variation for an upside trade.
I decided to start fighting for price on the 1 minute chart, as it was trend below the 1 Day VWAP lowerband, because I was anticipating a squeeze, and it was also trading my demand area of interest which was yesterdays manipulation stop hunt area, and bullish line in the sand, 1 minute demand. So I figured that if I fought for price on the 1 minute, I could get a great price for the turn of the 5 minute variation.
Due to this, I was stopped out 2 times, and had I just traded off of the 5 minute chart instead, I could have got a no drawdown entry. Which likely would have been favorable.
I just have such a hard time not executing on the 1 minute because it provides a very deep edge and risk to reward. Had i traded specifically off of the 5 minute chart, I would have gotten a no drawdown entry, but I also would have gotten filled at 19610, and because I fought for price, I had an average price of 19602 with 2 contracts.
You woke up late and missed key setups, resulting in the break of your 6-day green streak during this evaluation. Starting late disrupted your usual flow and mindset.
Market Bias Conflicts:
The market presented conflicting biases, making it difficult to align with a clear direction. You were waiting for an "easy money trade" off the VWAP bands, but market indecision caused confusion.
You observed a repetitive pattern of 9:30 short opportunities and end-of-day long opportunities with overnight moves higher. You are considering holding an overnight long trade, targeting a draw on liquidity around 19870 due to the weekly downtrend reversal and untapped liquidity on the weekly order block.
Missed Setup from Yesterday:
Yesterday’s setup hit your profit target before the 9:30 open, and you noted that this should have indicated that the price would likely come down, but you initially missed this clue.
You felt frustration about missing out on a potential 4R+ trade due to not being able to hold overnight positions.
Failed Easy Money Trade:
Your easy money trade and bullish line in the sand failed, suggesting a possible manipulation stop hunt.
You followed your rules by not executing a short trade because the 1-minute candle came just ticks away from the VWAP upper band, even though you accurately called the false break to the upside in the chatroom. This missed opportunity weighed heavily as the exact trade unfolded after you passed on it.
Choppy Price Action:
You faced frustrating and choppy price action around the lower band, with constant invalidation of signals. Both the first and second trades were stopped out, with one possibly being a stop hunt.
The second trade reversed right after hitting your stop-loss, reinforcing the idea of manipulation and adding to the mental frustration.
Contradictory Signals & Missed Alerts:
You struggled with contradictory signals, especially around the 1-minute demand level where price traded into the level but didn’t trigger your alert. This left you uncertain about the reliability of your signals.
You also identified an untapped demand area below the prior day’s low, leaving you concerned about whether price would sweep the longs out before potentially moving up.
Caution Regarding Overnight Trading:
Despite frustrations, you’re wary of overnight trading scenarios, fearing a nightmare where you trade throughout the night only for the setup not to play out.
Key Learnings and Adjustments:
Stick to the Plan, but Be Open to Adjustments: The strict adherence to your VWAP level rules prevented you from taking what could have been a profitable short trade. While rules are important, consider incorporating flexibility for trades that come very close to key levels.
Focus on Higher Timeframes for Direction: The choppy and confusing price action on the 1-minute chart could be resolved by focusing on higher timeframe setups, reducing the noise and uncertainty around micro-level decisions.
Recognize Repeated Patterns: You’ve noticed a consistent market pattern (9:30 short followed by end-of-day longs), which is valuable for planning future trades. Keep this in mind for upcoming sessions.
Frustration from Missed Opportunities: Missing out on potential 4R trades due to the inability to hold overnight positions added frustration. This might indicate a need to consider alternative strategies to participate in overnight moves without breaking rules.
Manage Overnight Risk: Your concerns about taking overnight trades are valid, and it’s important to weigh the potential rewards against the risk of trading throughout the night with uncertain outcomes.
In summary, today's session highlighted the challenges of conflicting signals, the importance of flexibility within your system, and the need for greater clarity in your approach when the market is choppy. Keep refining your system to accommodate these nuances.
woke up late. And broke my 6 day green streak on this evaluation.
The market was very conflicting between both biases on the day, so my approach for the trading session was that I was going to wait for an 'easy money trade' against the extremities on one of the first VWAP bands that were trades into.
Also, my trade setup from yesterday, worked perfectly to my diesred profit target, which was hit before the 9:30 session opened, so because of this, of should have figured that price would come down instead of up.
I also had a gut instinct that longs wouldnt work as well, because yesterday I didnt make much money on longs, because the trade was broken up between the prior eod of day session and the overnight trading session, and I cant hold trades overnight, so I had to only take profit at 1R multiple. Which is really annoying to me because I would have held the trade for a 4R + trade.
But the market for the past 2 sessions is trading as a 9:30 short opportunity, with an end of day long opportunity, with a move higher in the overnight, so for this reason, Im thinking about taking an overnight long trade, to target the draw on liquidity higher which I believe is around 19870. And the only reason I think the market will go higher is because the weekly downtrend reversed in todays trading session, and there is still untapped liquidity on the weekly bearish orderblock to the upside, with buy side liquidity above it.
My easy money trade failed, as well as my bullish line in the sand, 1 minute demand, which reversed. Which could have been a manipulation stop hunt.
I also beloeve I would have caught the short on the trading session, but because the 1 minute candle literally came TICKS, away for the vwap upperband, I didnt execute on the trade, because my rules suggest that I have to wait for price to hit the level exactly and wait for a reaction or its invalidated, I literally called out in the chatroom for tanjas livestream that I was expected a false break to the upside, and that I was looking at a reaction at 19850n short. Well little do you know, that its the exact trade that took place on the session, and because I was ticks away from the upperband level. I never took the trade. And the only trade that was presented to me from that point was the lowerband extremity trade.
And might I add, there was terrible price action around the lowerband. Constantly chopping above and below, signaling a trade, and then it becoming invalidated shortly after.
The first trade I took was a 1 minute variation close back above the lowerband, which also had displacement after a liquidity washout of the 6 hour bullish orderblock, and it failed.
The second trade. I didnt put much weight on the Lowerband, because it was continuosuly giving false signals, and decided to just play the reaction off of the line in the sand. And it literally swept my stoploss, and then immediately went in my direction, without breaching that low for the duration of the trading session, this is what leads me to believe it could be a possible manipulation stophunt.
With that being said, I have a 1 minute demand level marked as my long level of interest, as well as, but it appears that price trades into the level, potentially sweeping the liquidity, YET, it never tiggered my alert. So I am getting so many contradicting signals its almost hard to dechipher anything.
I have also Identified an untapped demand area beneath the prior days low, which is also scary to take longs still because Im unsure if it will trade into that level first and sweep all of the longs out of poisiton prior to potentially moving to the upside.
The market it about to open, and Im just hoping this isnt a nightmare scenario where I am trading throughout the nighttime and overnight session for nothing. Hopefully it pays off.
Here are the key takeaways from today's trading notes:
Neutral Opening Approach: You began the day with no specific directional bias, opting to read pure price action during the 9:30 trading session, while keeping in mind the 4-day bearish orderblock from last week.
Bearish Context Awareness: Despite no bias, you were conscious of the prevailing bearish trend from the 4-day bearish orderblock and the overnight selloff, indicating the market might lean bearish.
Caution Due to Contract Rollover: Aware of the increased potential for market chop during contract rollover, you decided to avoid meaningless trades and only take an A+ setup with good risk-to-reward.
Volatility and No Hasty Entry: You observed high volatility and waited for a confirmed multi-timeframe variation switch before executing a trade, showing patience and discipline in managing risk.
Technical Analysis Led Long Trade: Even though the market was flushing to the downside, you anticipated a short squeeze due to sellers trying to sell low rather than high. This led to a long entry targeting the 4-day bearish orderblock for a retest.
Missed "Trade of the Day" Setup: You identified the 9:30 short as the "Trade of the Day" setup, a strategy that had worked last week, but you didn't execute it today.
Conservative Trade Management: After entering long, you covered the trade early, booking a profit of around 1 R. Despite this, you left the trade template on the screen to see how the trade might have unfolded if held longer.
Second Trade Opportunity: After cutting the first trade at 1R, you re-entered in case of a squeeze to the upside, effectively managing risk and positioning for potential upside.
Reflections on Swing Shorts: You noted that the successful shorts for the day were those who held positions from Friday's close. You remain curious about whether the market will retest key levels in the upcoming session.
New Rule for Orderblocks: You implemented a rule that if the timeframe of the orderblock is trending against the signal, it lowers the probability of a successful entry. This added to your caution about taking further short trades.
Summary:
You maintained a disciplined, cautious approach with no bias.
Took a long position despite the bearish context, capitalizing on a potential short squeeze.
Missed executing the "Trade of the Day" short setup.
Ended the day up 1 R, showing strong risk management.
Today, we came into the trading day with no directional bias, and decided that we would just read pure price action from the opening bell for the 9:30 trading session.
One thing that I kept in mind from last Friday, was that we have bearish orderflow & distribution from the 4 day bearish orderblock. So when I came to the computer today, I noticed that we were selling off from the overnight, and everything seemed like a bearish bias would have been the correct though process for the trading day, but I still aproached it with an open mind, to just wait for a clean price action signal with good risk to reward, and that I would be content it I didnt execute a trade on the day. We had a bearish line in the sand, and a VWAP lowerband that wasnt being respected in the overnight session.
I also was aware that there was a contract rollover for the Nasdaq, and I have noticed in the past that there tends to be more chop during contract rollover. Ontop of that, volatility for the trading session was high, so I knew that if there wasnt an A+ setup, I would be content with not trading, to avoid taking any meaningless losses.
When the market opened, we flushed to the downside, but at this point I was just reading price action, and I was waiting for full confirmation of a variation switch from a multi timeframe analysis persepctive.
I also had in mind that this new weekly candle that has opened, is still in a bearish downtrend, and currently still distributing from the 4 day bearish orderblock, with the prior weekly high, as a supply area.
But i figured that, there was an extremity to the downside, without full price action confirmation to take the short side trade, and from my technical analysis, it displayed that the real short entry for longs on the session, was near the pre market high and the 4 day bearish orerblock. So I began to assume that shorts would be squeezed due to the fact that they were trying to sell low, rather than sell high.
So when I went long, I targeted the 4 day bearish orderblock, assuming that we could see a retest, and look for short entries if they provided an opportunity.
But as it stands, todays price action displayed that the real shorts who won on the session, were those that swung short from the friday close over the weekend, from the 19555.25 level. I am curious to see if the market will provide another retest of this level. Because there is also an un swept liquidit area above it for a weekly bearish orderblock, but the thing is, if we manage to make it to that level, it will likely be invalidated due to the fact that we recently implemented a new rule that if the timeframe of the orderblock is trending against the signal, it is a less likely chance it will be a high probability trading entry.
So my thought process is, that if shorts want to stay in control, then this weekly candle should flush out, and hold the 4 day bearish orderblock for a drop lower. For that reason, I left my current trade template still on the screen, even though I covered early, to see if the trade theoretically would have worked if I swung.
Another important thing to note, if that I didnt execute the 'trade of the day setup' that was working all of last week. From what Im looking at, the 9:30 short was the trade of the day setup, and also the overnight short. So i decided to mark those, since they are currently positoned. Will be very telling to see if they get knocked out of position in the overnight and premarket session before tomorrows trading day.
With that being said, I ended the day green, up around 1 R-Multiple.
I cut my first trade at 1R, and immediately re entered incase we squeezed to the upside, to bankroll the second trade if it worked.
Consistency in Strategy: You continued with the setup that's been working well all week—a deep long entry around the pre-market low area—and ended the day green, which reaffirms that your strategy is effective.
Premature Profit Taking: Your emotions influenced your decision to cover profits earlier than desired. Although your directional bias was correct, fear of losing out led to smaller gains, when holding longer could have doubled your profit.
Resilience in Directional Bias: Despite multiple retests and breakeven exits, you stuck to your directional bias, entering with more conviction each time while staying within your daily loss limit.
Adjusting Stop Loss Strategy: After price rallied to the upper band, you moved your stop to breakeven to protect profits. While this was a cautious move, it prevented you from holding the trade to your intended profit target.
Sizing Up as a Recovery Mechanism: You incrementally increased position size after losses, staying within your risk management framework. This helped you recover and end the day positive, but it's important to avoid revenge trading impulses.
Impact of News Data: The 10 AM consumer sentiment data had a stronger-than-expected market impact. You noted that certain green folder news events can act like red folder news, so it's crucial to account for this in future sessions.
Order Management Oversight: You discovered an open position due to not canceling remaining orders after exiting a trade. This oversight could have led to significant unintended losses.
Trend and Order Block Alignment: You recognized that order blocks in trend with the timeframe have a higher probability of success, and you'll want to implement this as a rule moving forward.
Ended todays trading day green. Took the same setup that has been consistent all week, which is a deep long entry around the pre market low area for a move higher as the journal has been suggesting.
It was definitely a difficult trading day overall, as my first position was taken out at breakeven, as well as my second. And it tricked me to think it would also do the same a 3rd time, which prompted me to cover profits earlier than my desired profit target, and what do you know... it ran to my profit target, and I likely would have made double on todays trading session.
I just began to start feeling unsure whether or not price would get the rip higher than I was continuosly anticipating over and over again.
Each trade I entered, I entered with 1 more contract than the trade earlier, because it was still in the path of my directional bias, and i also was staying with in my max loss limit for the trading day.
It was definitely a tricky trading session because price came back to my demand area entry 2 times before finally rallying higher, and I fought for price pretty aggressively right at market open, and the first retest took me out at breakeven, because price had rallied to the upperband, but I didnt want to cover profit because I had a higher upside target, but I also didnt want to lose on a trade that went that far in the money, so thats when I decided to place my stoploss at breakeven.
My second entry, took me out for a loss, with another price action reaction response at my prior demand area, so yet again for the 3rd time, I re entered long, because I was only down $80 dollars at that time, with a $200 daily loss limit. So i decided to size up with 1 more contract to compensate my pain and suffering in this trade haha.
It faked a flush down below the VWAP upperband, and I had enough with the trading day, I decided to take the 300 dollar winner which is 10% towards the profit target goal for this evaluation. Just trading the account slow and steady.
I also just took a mental trade short in my head and not on the account, and Im noticing it would have been a loss. And that was a 1 minute and 5 minute reaction at the 4d bearish orderblock. And I think I should implement a rule that if that timeframes trend is going against the orderblock, it is not as strong of a setup, if the orderblock is in trend with the timeframe, it is a stronger setup, and will likely end up with a higher probability of success.
and also, when my first trade was taken out at breakeven, it was based on a data drop at 10:00AM, which was counted as green folder news, when it really reacted like red folder news. I thought it was quite comical that price moved aggressively as it did, but I will have to remember that consumer sentiment data moves heavier than it may appear.
ALSO, DO NOT FORGET, to hit CANCEL ALL button after you exit a position. During this journaling session, I wasnt even aware that a 2 contract limit order was filled and that I was actively in a position. My account would be taking damage right now if I didnt just notice that. I also missed out on locking in a massive trade as well.
I had a chance to briefly review yesterdays trading session before today trading session (Day After) and I noticed that the 1 Day Moving Average was the perfect entry for yesterdays session, and I likely could have avoided the first stopout had I waited for that entry. I will remember this going into todays trading session. Because I had the moving average turned off yesterday, which is pretty ironic because its the first time I have turned it off in a while, due to the fact that it was minimizing my chart and I couldnt see price very well. Guess I should have kept it.
Key Takeaways from Today's Trading Notes:
Trade of the Day Setup: Successfully hit the "Trade of the Day" setup, similar to the previous day’s trade.
Premarket Analysis on Multi-day Charts:
Noted that the 2-day chart closed above a 2-day bearish order block, suggesting potential bullishness.
Contradiction with the 4-day chart, which was still in a downtrend unless yesterday’s high was broken.
Supply Area Breach as a Bullish Signal: Drew a 1-minute supply zone from the prior day's high, and when price breached that area in the morning, it indicated potential for higher prices.
Choppy Market Open: The 9:30 AM session was choppy, with price fighting in an accumulation zone for longs. The VWAP lower band aligned with the 2-day bearish order block, marking a critical "line in the sand."
Morning Losses from FOMO and Oversizing: Experienced FOMO, took oversized positions, and suffered larger-than-necessary losses in the morning session. Despite a 33% win rate, ended the day green.
Turtle Soup Setup: The final long trade was based on a Turtle Soup setup after the first stop run for longs. Opted for a 1-minute entry due to large candles on the higher timeframes (5 and 2-minute charts).
Held for Larger Move: Decided not to take profit at the VWAP upper band, choosing to hold for a larger move since stops were set at breakeven and no risk was left in the trade. The trade eventually hit the higher target at 19,449, the daily bearish order block.
Benefit of Multi-day Chart Intervals: Breaking down the daily chart into 1, 2, 3, and 4-day intervals improved the ability to read price action and trends, especially identifying trend shifts on the 4-day chart.
Confluence of 2-day Order Block and VWAP: Recognized the importance of the 2-day close above the bearish order block and the VWAP lower band sitting at the order block, focusing on high-probability, low-risk entries.
Evaluation Progress and Prop Firm Strategy: Almost halfway to the profit target for the evaluation account. Enjoying the flexibility of trading without a trailing drawdown, which favors the strategy of holding for larger moves. Believes that trailing drawdowns would have limited the ability to hold through significant pullbacks.
Today was an interesting trading day. I wound up hitting yet again the trade of the day setup, which looked very similar to yesterdays setup.
Going into todays trading day, when I was doing premarket analysis, I noticed that on the 2 day chart, yesterdays 2 days bar, closed above the 2 day bearish orderblock. With that being said, there was still a contradiction because on the 4 day chart, a brand new bar opened today. And price was technically still in a 4 day chart downtrend, unless price was able to take out yesterdays high.
So what I did, was draw a 1 minute supply area from yesterdays high of day, and when I woke up in the morning, I noticed that the high, and the supply area was breached. So this gave me an indiciation that we would likely see higher prices on the day.
The 9:30 open was pretty sloppy and choppy, and it was a fight for price, as we were in an accumulation zone for longs. And one of the main things I had noticed, was that the lowerband of the VWAP was sitting directly on the 2 day bearish orderblock. So I knew that that area was going to be the line in the sand essentially.
And the actual line in the sand on the session, was far far below where price was trading, because the 12 hour chart was actually in the process of creating a 3 bar variation for a 12 hour fair value gap.
I got stop ran in the morning on the first long, and I had fomo and was also getting greedy for a long entry, so I decided to market at prices I shouldnt have been, and I also oversized by 1 contract on the second try, which resulted in a bigger loss than I should have taken in the morning.
I ended this session with virtually a 33% win rate, yet I am still green on the day.
When I entered the final long trade, It was a turtle soup setup, after the first stoploss was ran for longs. And it seemed like the first loss was basically inevitable, because I was taking the trade from a 1 minute chart, due to the fact that the candles were massive on the 5 minute, And even the 2 minute as well. So the 1 minute entry was the best for todays session.
When I was in the long trade, I decided not to take profit at the VWAP upperband, and hold through a rotation for the bigger move, because I was down on the day, I had no risk left on the trade because I had stops set at breakeven, and I didnt see any reason to take profit yet as I had a higher upside target
I have also noticed that breaking the daily chart up into 1,2,3,4 day intervals really helps me read price action and trend better.
Just simple noticing the trend shift on the 4 day chart, dramatically helped with my daily bias for the day, and also, taking note of the 2d bearish orderblock, the 2 day close above the orderblock, and the lowerband and 2 day orderblock confluence, to really focus on the highest probability, lowest risk entry on the day. And with that being said, we are almost at half the desired profit target to be hit on this evaluation account, and I am really loving the fact that I dont have to trade this prop firm with a trailing drawdown. I believe it favors my strategy more. As i am a daytrader. And I highly believe that if I was trading an apex evaluation with a trailing drawdown, I wouldnt have been able to to hold for the larger move on the day because of how massive the pullback was from the first rotation.
It hit my profit target as planned at 19449 which was the daily bearish orderblock. And I figured it was a very high chance we would get there, because the 2 day hold, holds more weight than a 1 day supply area.
Best Trading Day: Achieved the best trading day since starting the Topstep evaluation, with the main trade being a "Trade of the Day" setup.
Missed Alarm: Overslept and woke up at 9:30 AM, just as the market opened, missing the premarket routine.
Price Action Focus: Chose to observe pure price action for the first 1-2 hours before entering a trade.
Chase Trade: Felt FOMO due to the initial drop at the open and took a chase short trade when the price traded below the VWAP lower band, targeting the prior day low. Covered the position early out of fear of a squeeze, missing the full move.
Familiar Reversal Setup: Recognized a reversal setup when the 1-minute bar closed above the VWAP lower band, supported by a 5-minute bearish-to-bullish variation. This led to the "Trade of the Day" long position.
Massive Rally: Entered long with a target at the VWAP upper band (320 points away). Trailed the stop after the third failed attempt to break the 2-minute trend to the downside. The market rallied 600 points from the entry, passing several significant levels, including the premarket high and a 4-day fair value gap.
Position Management: Closed the entire position due to having only 1 contract, missing out on holding for the massive move. Would have held longer if more contracts were traded.
Had my best trading day today since starting my Topstep evaluation account. And the main trade I took, was actually a trade of the day setup.
I woke up basically at 9:30 AM on the dot, due to oversleeping past my alarm clock. And from the moment the market opened, it was a drop from the opening bell. My thought process at this time was that I was just going to read pure price action for at least an hour or 2 until I saw a reasonable setup. And the market dropped heavily, inducing a bit of fomo (fear of missing out) for the downside move. I wound up taking a chase trade short, as I saw that price was trading and trending below the VWAP lowerband. because of this, I anticipated more downside to my anticipated price target at that time, which was the prior day low. I sold just a minute short, covering profit from fear of a squeeze to the upside, to watch it immediately drop and hit my target.
As I was monitoring price, I saw a setup occur that I have became familiar with, and that a reversal from a trend below or above a VWAP. And actually, just to note, the short setup for the session on the morning came from a trend above the upperband, which also led to a reversal to the downside. So todays candle was heavily influenced by the prior day candles range.
I was able to lock up the short trade, and I soon as I saw the 1 minute bar close back above the lowerband for a reversal IN CONFLUENCE, with a 5 minute bearish to bullish variation, I decided to take the market long, for the trade of the day setup.
At this time I had a price target back to the VWAP upperband, but it was 320 points away, so I decided to trailstop the positon after the thired attempt to break the 2 minute trend to the downside, and because I was only in with 1 contract, I had to cover the entire position. Had I had 2 or more contracts, I would have held for a massive move, because the market rallied from my entry a staggering 600 points to the upside, as a straight shot up, straight through the pre market high, and through what that time I had marked as an unclosed 3rd candle, 4 day fair value gap rip to the upside, into the 2 day bearish orderblock I had marked from the week prior.
Overtrading: Took more trades than desired due to tight range trading between VWAP upper and lower bands, with wide candles contributing to difficulty in stop loss management.
Forced into Lower Timeframes: Despite a focus on higher timeframes in recent journal entries, had to trade the 1-minute chart due to wide stop losses on the 5-minute chart (60 points).
Choppy Price Action: Traded 1-minute fair value gaps, but frequent direction changes led to multiple "papercut" losses. Entry points were invalidated quickly by opposing squeezes.
Frustration and FOMO: Felt frustration from perceived stop runs and re-entered trades with increased size, even holding through large drawdowns. Almost fell below the $50K threshold on the evaluation account.
High-Risk Decision: Took on more size and risk than intended, holding trades with a mental stop at the high of day. Luckily, the market dropped in favor of the trade before hitting the stop.
Trade of the Day Setup: Identified the trade of the day as a high-of-day reversal (bullish-to-bearish 1-minute variation), with a break and retest of an order block, though execution felt risky due to potential for a squeeze higher.
Dislike for High Volume of Trades: Prefers taking a maximum of two trades but was forced to cut and re-enter due to wide stop losses. The overall market thesis remained intact despite the challenges.
Hard Stop Losses Necessary: Realized the importance of using hard stop losses when trading fair value gaps around key 50% marks, as these areas attract squeezes.
Market Conditions: Observed that the market isn't trending cleanly, making quick take-profits more suitable in the current environment. Awaiting a more trending market to execute bigger trades and pass the evaluation.
Excitement for Evaluation: Eager to pass the evaluation and optimistic about doing so on the first try, despite the day's challenges.
I took way more trades today than I would have liked, and its likely because I was trading a decently tight range from a upper and lowerband vwap deviation perspective, and the candles were fairly wide. On the 5 minute chart specifically, I would have had to take a 60 point stoploss from the bullish to bearish variation, and I didnt want to take that big of a loss. So although alot of my journaling sessions lately have suggested that I should focus on the higher timeframes, it seems I had no choice other than to trade the 1 minute chart today.
I was focusing mostly on 1 minute chart fair value gaps today, and figured that the displacement through the daily 50% fair value gap, would suffice a low drawdown entry move to the downside, but there was alot of chop, and inability to stay in my postion because of the tighter stoplosses, wider price swing moves, and consistent change in direction bias from the fair value gaps on the 1 minute chart. One second i would have displacement through a level, and then the next minute would squeeze back in the opposite direction and invalidate my position. So in the morning session, I was taking quite a bit of papercut losses. And I wouldnt exactly say that I traded well today at all, regardless of the fact that I ended the day green.
I also was getting annoyed by what I felt was manipulation stop runs on my positions, so the moment price would go in my favor again, I would re enter, and with more size. and there was even a point where my drawdown on this evaluation account was below the 50K threshold which means I could have lost last weeks gains. And honestly, when it was squeezing against me, I likely should have stopped out, but I decided to hold, with alot more size than I should have been involved in the trade with, and had a mental stoploss at the high of day.
Luckily, it was a manipulation, and immediately dropped, coming very close to my stopout point, before ultimately going in my favor.
As it currently stands, the trade of day setup is a high of day reversal, bullish to bearish 1 minute variation, with a break and retest of the orderblock. So many extremity points testing the will of traders in todays session.
I happened to get a little lower than higher of an entry compared to that 1 minute supply zone created off of the open, but it seemed it was at such high risk for a squeeze higher to try to play that extremity, especially because that level was above the 50% mark for the daily fair value gap, so i figured it would be more confirmation for my short side entry.
I really dislike taking this high volume of trades during the day, and generally like to keep it at 2 trades max, but the overall thesis was never invalidated, it was simply that the stoplosses were a bit wide for my liking, so it was better to just cut the trade and re enter.
I also noticed that when im trading fair value gaps, I simply cannot wait for candle closure stoplosses, especially when Im trading around the 50% marks. These areas are magnets for squeezes and can result in big losses, so unfortunately, these need to be traded with hard stop losses, and i think the best spot would be the high or low at the variation & displacement candle contrary to the directional bias.
On todays trading day specifically, it doesnt seem there was any clear 'no drawdown' on entry, type signal. And you really just had to trade the choppy price action manually.
The market isnt really trending clean, and seems we are in a take profit quicker enviornment at the moment. I am excited for when the market starts trending again, so that I can lock up some nice trades and pass this evaluation.
it would be really awesome if I also passed this evaluation on my first try.
Price Action Focus: You successfully read price action without bias, reacting to displacements on multi-timeframe Fair Value Gaps (FVGs).
Entry and Re-entry: Your re-entry after the first small loss was well-timed, capitalizing on a bullish-to-bearish variation on the 1-minute chart.
Trade Management: You demonstrated strong trade management by cutting your long trade just before a major drop, showing great awareness of shifting market conditions.
Profit-taking: You effectively took profit at a key level (50% between the premarket high and low) and managed your trail stops, limiting losses and locking in gains.
Adaptability: Even though your upside target wasn’t hit, you adapted by identifying the short side displacement and capitalizing on the downside move.
Today I came into the market with no bias, I simply read price action, and follow the displacements on multi-time frame analysis FVG's (Fair Value Gaps).
There were many imbalances and gaps, but with hindsight at this current time, it appears that the 12 Hour FVG wil likely be the short trade entry of the day.
I entered the market long after I got the first 5 minute displacement to the upside, with a hold at the 50% line, and a bearish to bullish variation reaction on the 1 minute chart.
The trade was very annoying to stay in, as is kept coming close to my trail stop multiple times. Until it ran my stoploss for a small loss, and I immediately re entered the trade on the following 1 minute candle, after it wicked the 50% area again. The trade put me in the money immediately, as I was targeting my first take profit to the upside, I noticed that there was a 1 minute displacement to the upside, and I was also tracking that fair value gap, and just short of my upside profit target, it broke the 50%, which is where I cut my trade, and actually happened to provide the exact short entry trade for the session. as the next minute downside candle was the short side displacement in price through the 12 hour fair gap, and the displacement had confluence between the 1 minute and 5 minute charts.
It took me a moment to catch on to price action, so I wound up marketing short, and adding through the session low and VWAP break. I took profit at the 50% line between the premarket high and premarket low, and then trail stopped the rest of the partial on a 1 minute trail stop. And it took me out of the trade and continued dropping.
I think the part about this trade that made it the most difficult for me to catch to the short side, was the fact that it didnt hit the upside bearish orderblocks in confluence with a 61.8% bearish retracement from the prior days range. From that level (which was also my upside price target) I could have waited for a variation price action reaction trade on the 5 minute chart, but overall, I did an amazing job reading price action raw, because I cut the long trade at the perfect time before the drop, regardless of the fact that price didnt hit the upside target I was aiming for. Had I got greedy for the upside, there is a very high likelyhood that I would have ended the day red.
You initially identified potential bullish follow-through based on several technical factors (e.g., untapped demand areas and bullish "Line in the Sand"). However, despite these indicators, the overnight session had a short setup, and the market didn't follow your expected bullish bias. This reveals a mismatch between your analysis and market behavior, suggesting the need to refine your directional bias.
2. Ignoring Higher Timeframe Gaps
One major mistake occurred during the 9:30 session, where you entered based on a 1-minute fair value gap closure without waiting for confirmation from higher timeframes (5-minute and 15-minute). The higher timeframe gaps held more significance, indicating that your entries were premature and lacked multi-timeframe alignment.
3. Misjudging Supply and Demand Zones
You noticed the absence of a 5-minute demand zone in the overnight session, which may have contributed to your failed bullish "Line in the Sand." Similarly, during the 9:30 session, you anticipated that the bearish line in the sand would fail because there was no 1-minute demand zone. This led to a wrong bias and influenced poor trade decisions, including an unnecessary long.
4. Failure to Adapt to Market Conditions
After identifying the shift from a bullish to bearish "Line in the Sand" between the overnight and 9:30 sessions, you failed to adapt quickly enough, sticking to a bullish bias when the market was signaling bearish. In hindsight, your first stop-out could have been the perfect short entry, showing hesitation to flip your bias in real time.
5. Overconfidence in Low Timeframe Setups
You focused on low-timeframe setups (1-minute fair value gap, 1-minute demand area) without giving enough weight to higher timeframes and market structure. This led to false confidence in trades that were ultimately stopped out due to the dominance of larger, more influential market patterns.
6. Overtrading & Emotional Reactions
You took multiple losses during the overnight session and continued trading into the 9:30 session without reassessing market conditions thoroughly. The "easy money trade" you took off the VWAP lower band was another loss, showing a pattern of overtrading rather than waiting for optimal setups.
7. Self-Reflection & Adjustments
You recognize that many of the mistakes are avoidable, such as failing to align with higher timeframes, entering trades without strong confirmations, and misjudging the strength of demand and supply zones. The overall takeaway is that you need to make significant adjustments and improvements to avoid repeating these mistakes.
Key Improvements to Focus On:
Align Entries with Higher Timeframes – Ensure that your 1-minute or short-term entries are confirmed by higher timeframe signals (5-minute, 15-minute).
Respect Market Structure – Be more adaptable when the market structure changes (e.g., when the Line in the Sand flips).
Avoid Premature Bias Shifts – Stick to your plan, but be open to flipping bias when valid signals present themselves.
Reduce Overtrading – Limit the number of trades and ensure each entry has a strong technical basis, especially when early trades result in losses.
Focus on Key Setups – Prioritize higher probability setups and resist taking "easy" trades based on emotional reactions or minor signals.
By improving these areas, you'll be able to make better decisions, minimize losses, and increase your consistency moving forward.
Adjustments for the Next Trading Session:
Align Entries with Higher Timeframes
Focus on higher timeframe confirmations (5-minute, 15-minute) before taking 1-minute setups. Make sure the broader market structure supports your trade idea before entering on a smaller timeframe.
Respect Market Structure
Adapt to market shifts more quickly. If you see a shift in the "Line in the Sand" or market behavior contradicts your initial bias, be prepared to pivot and adjust your strategy, even if it means reversing your directional bias.
Improve Demand and Supply Zone Analysis
Ensure you're analyzing demand and supply zones across multiple timeframes, particularly the higher timeframes (5-minute, 15-minute). Don’t rely solely on untapped zones in lower timeframes (e.g., 1-minute) without supporting evidence.
Wait for Clear Confirmation
Instead of jumping into trades based on lower timeframe signals, wait for clear confirmation. If you're trading a 1-minute fair value gap, make sure there's alignment with higher timeframe gaps or other key levels (e.g., 50% mean reversions on larger timeframes).
Limit Overtrading
Set a rule for yourself to limit the number of trades you take. Once you hit your daily risk limit or experience two losses, step back and reassess the market without rushing into more trades.
Trade Only the Best Setups
Focus on your highest probability setups. Define and stick to "A+ setups" like key trend reversals or clear support/resistance breaks. Avoid chasing trades that don't align with your trading plan.
Key Intention for the Next Trading Session:
"Patience and Confirmation Over Impulse"
Your key focus should be waiting for higher timeframe confirmation before entering a trade. Every time you feel the urge to trade based on a lower timeframe signal, stop and check whether higher timeframes (5-minute, 15-minute, or even H1/H4) align with your idea. This will help you avoid premature entries and impulsive trading decisions.
Not a good trading session for both the overnight and 9:30 open session.
In the overnight, when performing my technical analysis, I noticed a few things.
- We didnt reach the Daily draw on liquidity lower, and we created a slight bullish trend candle formation on the daily chart.
- We still didnt tap into the liquidity higher from the daily bearish fair value gap to the 2 day orderblock, or any liquidity sweeps/runs higher into any 50% mean reversions on higher timeframes
- We had a bullish Line In The Sand at that time
- We had an untapped 1 minute demand area, indicating a potential hold of the lower levels
All of these indicators, suggested to me that we could get potential bullish follow through, because althought I thought overall that the market would see lower prices, I thought in general that the market would want to trade to higher prices first, (ideally around the 2 Day Bearish Orderblock) (After liquidity was swept) to take a sell signal for lower prices. But this didnt happen. It was an overnight short setup from the overnight opening print on the first bullish to bearish variation. Which currently stands as this trading sessions 'Trade Of The Day' setup.
So how did I trade this?
Well, I took 2 losses attempting to trade the 1 minute untapped demand area, and also got caught in a 'bullish line in the sand' reversal.
I then entered shortly after on a 'Bullish Turtle Soup' setup after the liquidity was swept. And this trade was going well for some time, until It failed to reach my overall profit target, and came back to take me out of the trade at breakeven.
Then, I woke up and decided to trade the 9:30 session, and there was a full thing I was noticing from the technicals.
- We flipped from an overnight bullish line in the sand, to a 9:30 session bearish line in the sand.
( And a key observation that I noticed in the failure of the overnight line in the sand, from my estimation, was that it was lacking a 5 minute demand area. None existed, because the liquidity on all 5 minute demands were swept at that time)
Because I thought that because there was no 5 minute demand for the bullish line in the sand, I also noticed that there wasnt a 1 minute demand area that existed for the bearish line in the sand.
This influenced my bias, to believe that the bearish line in the sand would also fail, and that I should approach the 9:30 session with a bullish bias, to tap into more sell side liquidity, and look for an extremity or reversal trade after liquidity was swept.
Well, this didnt happen, and the 30 minute bearish orderblock created off of the bearish line in the sand rejection in the premarket session, at was the high for the 9:30 session open.
The 9:30 session trade that I took, was a 1 minute close above a 1 minute 50% fair value gap, which also aligned in confluence with a close above the 1st deviation moving average. But I didnt wait for the 5 minute 50% fair value gap closure, OR the 15 minute fair value gap closure. Which was clear dispacement lower from the open, with a failure to reverse where I entered long. SO its clear that the higher timeframe fair value gaps held more weight than the 1 minute fair value gap.
Upon this loss, I took one more final trade on what I have journal as my 'easy money trade' which is a simple reaction at the upper or lower VWAP bands.
In this case, I took a lowerband long setup off of a 1 minute price action reaction (bearish to bullish variation) and took my second loss for the session.
In hindsight, My first stopout ( 1 minute fair value gap failure ) actually could have provided me a short entry trade of the day setup, had I just chose to sell rather than to buy. So I made many mistakes between the overnight and the 9:30 trading sessions.
Overall, I need to make many adjustments to ensure that I solve all of these mistakes and issues. And dont bring it into the next trading week.
You woke up at 8:32 AM, just 2 minutes after the 8:30 data drop, and observed M1 displacement at the H6 bullish order block level.
The liquidity sweep through the H6 bullish order block suggests you should pay attention to these levels and monitor for potential liquidity draw misses.
Importance of Marking Liquidity Levels:
The missed lower daily draw on liquidity reinforces the need to consistently mark supply or demand liquidity extremes. This could help anticipate where price is likely to move in the future, giving a clearer roadmap for setups.
Chart Timeframe Consideration:
You noted that entering the trade on the M1 chart would have resulted in being stopped out at the low of the day before price moved in your direction. Conversely, entering on the M5 chart would have minimized drawdown and improved risk-to-reward.
This suggests that using higher timeframes like M5 for entries could offer better trade outcomes, especially in volatile conditions like post-data drops.
Overnight Session Scalping:
You took a scalp trade off an untested M1 demand area from the prior day and saw quick success after confirming a close above the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the premarket high to low.
This demonstrates a successful application of Fibonacci retracement and quick reaction to price action, leading to a profitable 1-2R scalp.
Areas to Consider:
Continue refining entry precision by considering different timeframes (M1 vs. M5) to optimize for better risk management.
Marking all supply/demand liquidity zones more accurately could prevent future missed opportunities and clarify extremes.
(NOTES)
I woke up somehow at 8:32 on the dot, which was pretty interesting being that data dropped 2 minutes piror, and I noticed M1 displacement through my H6 bullish orderblock level of interest. In which all of the liquidity was sweeped through the the H6 Bullish Orderblock stoploss, with a reaction off of that level, missing the lower daily draw on liquidity by about a 1 minute candle. So In the future, I think it will be very beneficial to mark 100% of supply or demand liquidity so that I can get an idea of the extremes in where price can likely head.
But I took the retest long from my level of interest after the displacement from the 8:30 data, with a stoploss at my inital stop area from the H6 bullish orderblock. Looking at this trade in hindsight, had I taken the trade on the M1 chart, I would have been stop ran at the low of day for price to immediately have ran in my direction, but If i entered on the 5 minute chart, I would have experienced virtually no drawdown for a very high risk to reward trade. So we will have to keep that in mind for the future.
I did also take a scalp trade in the overnight session, off of an untested m1 demand area from the prior day, it immediately started running, and I didnt take the inital entry, but once we had a 1 minute close above the 50% fib from the premarket high to low, I scalped a long trade for about 1-2R.
Here are the key takeaways from your trading notes:
Trade Setup & Execution:
You entered your first Topstep combine trade during the overnight session, based on an M1 demand area that aligned with M1 and M5 bullish confluence.
Your main level of interest was the 20-day, 1-hour low to high 50% Fibonacci retracement, which you used to identify a potential bottom.
Trade Management:
You experienced uncertainty about the demand level holding, so you waited for a second reaction before entering.
Despite anticipating the trade working out before you slept, the market chopped, and you eventually cut the trade early after waking up 1R positive.
Cutting the trade early locked in a win but missed a potential $260 profit that would have been achieved by sticking to your initial profit target.
Hindsight Reflection:
In hindsight, you recognize that had you followed your original plan and left the trade to work, it would have hit your profit target by 9:49 AM.
You acknowledged that although the action was sloppy and involved a fight for price, your analysis was correct, and the trade eventually reached the desired outcome.
Lessons Learned:
You expressed that while it's fine to have locked in a win, you probably should stick to your trade plan in the future and allow the trade to reach its full potential.
You also noted the importance of finding cleaner setups to avoid getting stuck in choppy, accumulative price action.
Summary: Your notes reflect a solid trade setup and execution, but a conservative decision to cut the trade early led to a smaller profit than anticipated. Moving forward, sticking to your trade plan and allowing trades to reach their full potential, as well as focusing on cleaner setups, are key areas for improvement.
I took my first Topstep combine trade here in the overnight session on a long entry from an M1 demand area created. I was unsure if the demand level would immediately drop, so I waited for a second reaction off of the m1 demand area, and had an M1 and M5 bullish confluence upon entry.
I was anticipating that the trade would work before I fell asleep, but it didnt, and I was watching it chop from the moment I entered, so when I woke up I was roughly 1R positive on the trade, so I decided to just cut it and lock in my first win to start the account off in a positive direction.
In hindsight, had I just left the trade, I wouldve reached my profit target, which at that time was just the premarket open print, and I would have made around $260. Its fine. Im okay that I cut the trade early, althought I probably should just stick to the plan in the future.
It was sloppy action on the 20D 1 Hour low to high 50% fib, which was the main level I was trading off of to find a potential bottom. There was multiple M1 demand areas created from the PML created on this trading session, and an overall fight for price. So I was stuck in an overall accumulation that didnt want to pop at the time. But I would have hit my profit target at 9:49AM. Next side I guess I should obsviously just let the trade work. But I think we can find a cleaner setup.
Todays trade of the day setup, was presented in the overnight trading session from the H12 bearish orderblock, with multiple attempts to sweep the liquidity, it still held strong. So it appears at the moment, the strongest short setup in this current downtrending market is an H12 bearish orderblock short.
