9:29AM. Looking for longs off open atm, would write more detailed but I have 30 seconds.
10:06AM. Ive taken 2 loses on trap longs. Garbage action at the VWAP.
10:20AM. This is seriously awful price action. I am currently following a rule of going to the next timeframe over if my entry fails. So far I have been stopped out of M2 & M5. I am contemplating M15, but I honestly dont think I want to take the trade. I would prefer an extremity at the VWAP bands at this point. Im thinking to trust a VWAP trade for the 3rd time would be a mistake, also because the R/R would put me at negative R Multiple from the 15M chart.
10:49AM. I took a short at the area where the M15 chart signaled long. I wasnt comfortable taking the trade after that type of trade stopped me out 2 times prior. Also, because of the negative R Multiple, I just marketed short and it got me bascially at breakeven OTD.
11:40AM. Pretty boring trading session, stuck in a tight range, chopping the VWAP with no extremities trade opportunities. Down around $56 on the session. Looking to just get green OTD so I can walk.
12:43 What a stupid fucking trading session. Shit is so fucking annoying. Just constantly giving me flase signals over and over again. If I just took the fucking long trade at the sweep of liquidity lower at LOD, id be up on fucking session and could have walked already.
1:38PM Passed my evaluation, multiple chop outs OTD, and we will have to do some deep journaling this week to figure out how to avoid that many stop outs in the future. But we put our money where our mouth was. Took on a bit too much risk to be honest. But we were playing with some profits on the week.
It doesnt matter how much profit we made OTW in theory, because we are against trailing drawdown.
Trading the M30 trend shift would have resulted in the least amount of drawdown upon entry for the trading session.
I also could have avoided squeeze loses but waiting for the break below the upperband, in which this case, we were trending above from the area we broke out of.
I also think that following the rule of going to the next timeframe higher upon each stopout, would really help with mitigating my risk.
This was a very difficult trading session due to many mixed signals on my days VWAP. I was thinking long, which was the first initial move. I just got chopped out of all of my variation signals. And the moment I tried to trade against the range, I got squeezed. But ultimately, the trade OTD that worked was off of yesterdays orderblock signals, from M30 orderblocks down to the M2 Orderblocks. That was in confluence with another H12 bullish trend attempt and fakeout for a move lower. The only difference with todays setup was that the H12 candle didnt sweep the Buy Side Liquidity from the orderblocks presented before it dropped. Thats why this action was so tricky. It was a fight for price the entire time, and my trend shift signals kept going off, I will have to implement rules that keep me from getting chopped out like this in the future.
The short rejection came from the prior day 15 Minute Bearish Orderblock. The orderblock sequence was larger timeframe orderblocks lower to higher. As the timeframes granually got shorter as the orderblocks went higher, (as it should during a short trade) this M15 bearish orderblock was ABOVE the 5 minute and 2 minute bearish orderblocks. In the future, I will have to make sure that I implement it as a rule, that if there is an inconsistency with orderblocks in relation to their location, that will be the new A+ orderblock rule.
I will make it official
(New Trading Rule For Orderblocks)
Order blocks that come from shorts, tend to come from lower timeframes the higher the orderblock
Orderblocks that come from longs, tend to come from lower timeframes the lower the orderblock
Our new rule is
***If an orderblock from a higher timeframeframe is above an orderblock from a lower timeframe for a short, that will be our short signal***
***If an orderblock from a higher timeframe is below an orderblock from a lower timeframe for a long, that will be our long signal.***
NOW THAT YOU ARE FUNDED, YOU **MUST MUST MUST** NOT TRADE MORE THAN 1 MICRO ON ANY GIVEN TRADE FOR **AT LEAST** THE FIRST 10 TRADING DAYS OF BEING FUNDED. YOU SIMPLY CANNOT EXECUTE TRADES WITH THE SAME AMOUNT OF RISK YOU HAVE USED TO PASS THIS EVALUATION. OUR MAIN PRIORITY IS SIMPLY GETTING OUR FIRST PAYOUT. MAKING TRADING BECOME REAL, SEEING SOMETHING IN RETURN FOR THE YEARS OF HARD WORK AND DEDICATION YOU HAVE PUT TOWARDS THIS CRAFT. YOU OWE IT TO YOURSELF, AND YOU DESERVE IT.
IF YOU TAKE 1 MICRO CONTRACT WITH YOUR SYSTEM, YOU WILL BE ABLE TO INCREASE YOUR TRADING FREQUENCY, BUILD THE CONFIDENCE FOR HITTING THE BUY OR SELL BUTTON AND GETTING RID OF FEAR AND HESITATION, HELPING YOU FINE TUNE YOUR STRATEGY IN THE PROCESS SO THAT YOU CAN HELP DEVELOP YOUR PLAYBOOK AND TRADING RULES.
WITH GOOD TRADES YOU SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO MAKE AROUND 250-300 BUCKS TRADING A DAY. AND AFTER THE 10 DAY PERIOD, THAT IS A 2500 PAYOUT, 5K A MONTH,
Its currently 8:38 AM as im beginning todays journaling session. And right off of the bat, there is an overnight gap above the prior month low. Which tells me that the buy orders hitting the tape on friday, could very well be in the money for todays trading session for a continuation higher. And since the 1D VWAP is trending through its upperband. I decided to take the next deivation, which actually happened to be the Month VWAP tracking on the 1D 5M. There is also a draw on liquidity for both the high and the low of the prior day. And it aligns pretty well with the Month VWAP bands. So what Im thinking is going to happen, is that there will be a liquidity sweep above the prior day high, and we will see a failure, after the liquidity is swept. That is my current bias. There is no major economic news today either, and I would figure that there should be some selling into the open.
9:45, was just stopped out of an opening short trade on the 2 minute chart, still have the same thesis, will re enter if presented on the M5 chart
I re entered on the M5 Month VWAP Trend And Variation shift to the downside. Targeting the weekly dol after the prior day high dol was swept. I am currently risking another squeeze to grab more buy stops on what I believe is a manipulation trade up. My thesis is that the overnight longs will be covering their positions into the open session here, creating sellside pressure, and that the manipulation up, will have trapped early opening shorts, and also create a false breakout to the upside for longs, trapping them on the way back down. So, theres multiple traps involved in this setup. And it follows our playbook trade, backed by data, where a prior day close to pre market open gap gets absorbed and traded against. So, we will see what happens. Ive made more money to the downside as well than my long trades. If it doesnt work, it is what it is.
11:30, The trade put me into some drawdown, but It is currently in my direction, and I covered 1 of the 2 contracts. Going to attempt to hold the 2nd one for the full Month VWAP Upperband to Lowerband move.
2:41PM Red fucking day. What else is new...
I was targeting the DOL lower on the week, and for the playbook trade to play out, and it didnt. Will have to revisit this incorrect trade signal in the future.
Setup: Based on the 30D low to high Fibonacci (61.8% level), entry was supported by the lower DOL (Daily Open Low) and demand entries on the M1 chart.
Second Trade:
Outcome: Loss.
Mistake: Entered after observing large buy orders, which led to a sudden market drop. The decision to size in more aggressively and the resulting market movement caused a loss.
Issue: The trade could have been more profitable if the exit had been executed at the top, instead of getting faked out by the tape.
Setup Analysis
Initial Entry:
Reasoning: Entry was based on a significant imbalance and the next draw on liquidity being the prior month's low. The setup aimed to capitalize on a potential “monthly turtle soup” scenario, where early longs were swept out.
Outcome: First trade was successful, validating the use of the setup.
Subsequent Entry:
Reasoning: Aimed for a continuation based on the earlier setup, but market dynamics changed with a massive buyer’s presence and subsequent market tanking.
Issue: Lack of exit strategy led to unnecessary losses.
Key Insights
Tape Reading: Relying solely on the tape can be misleading. It’s essential to align entries with broader market context and confirmation from other indicators.
Setup Testing: Testing new setups like the monthly turtle soup provides valuable data for refining future entries.
Fibonacci Levels: The 30D low to high Fibonacci levels have shifted. The 61.8% bounce is no longer relevant, but marking previous levels can aid in tracking future reversals.
Future Considerations
Liquidity Zones: Continue to monitor significant liquidity zones and Fibonacci confluence areas (e.g., 90D 38.2% and 30D 78.6% Fibonacci levels) for potential bounces.
Exit Strategy: Develop a clearer exit strategy to avoid losses due to market volatility or misleading tape signals.
Refinement: Adjust trading strategies based on ongoing analysis of setups, particularly in identifying and managing risk more effectively.
Action Items
Track Setups: Continue to track and refine the use of Fibonacci levels and liquidity zones based on historical performance.
Monitor Tape: Use tape reading as a supplementary tool rather than the primary basis for trade decisions. Validate tape signals with other indicators.
Refine Strategy: Incorporate the lessons learned about entry and exit strategies into the trading plan.
Updated Checklist for Trade Entries
Setup Confirmation:
Validate with multi-timeframe analysis.
Check Fibonacci levels and liquidity zones.
Execution:
Prefer high probability setups with clear entry and exit criteria.
Avoid sizing in aggressively based on tape reading alone.
Exit Strategy:
Define exit points before entering trades.
Use trailing stops or predefined targets to lock in profits and minimize losses.
Post-Trade Analysis:
Review trades for compliance with strategy.
Adjust tactics based on market behavior and performance data.
I took 2 trades, the first was a solid winner, the second one could have been avoided, by taking the profit at the top, rather than sizing in & getting faked out by the tape. I seen massive buy orders coming in, and the moment I pressed the buy button, the market tanked. It was likely a big buyer that was building a position that could potentially take off next week.
The entry I decided to take was based on a massive imbalance for the next draw on liquidity lower, which is the prior month low, which is very far away. And the break of a prior month low, with a 20-30D fibonacci long entry. My thought process was that there is alot of potential for the early longs to have been swept out of the marketplace with stops below the prior month low, and we could have seen a monthly turtle soup entry. This was my first time testing the entry, and after the move chooses a direction, I will have more data on more confirmation for the setup.
The 30D low the high has changed with a slightly higher low now after the following day, so the 61.8% bounce is no longer in play. But i marked the prior 30D low to high, so that if the market does happen to reverse in the future, I can track the timeframe in which the entry occured to avoid senseless losses in the future.
For now, we have confluence between the 90D 38.2% fibonacci & the 30D 78.6% fibonacci, so with liquidity drawing lower, I think it is likely that this confluence area will be the next potential bounce play.
I guess the takeaway will be for the loss of profits on this trading day. DONT SOLELY TRUST THE TAPE.
Woke up past my alarm but identified a break and retest setup which aligned with my trading strategy.
The pre-market open served as support, which broke, and then retested as resistance.
Entered the short trade as the price moved through the overnight gap between the prior day's close and the pre-market open.
Targeted the next draw on liquidity, which was the weekly low, following the direction of the prevailing trend.
Observed that using the M5 chart provided better entry opportunities with minimal drawdown, and high hit rate.
Noted that the draw on liquidity approach has been effective in predicting the next target.
Insights and Strategy Adjustments:
Plan to monitor potential bounces at the 20D (Month Low) and recent liquidity sweeps at the weekly low in future sessions.
If bulls fail to hold the level, the next target could be the prior month low, which is a significant distance away.
Consider waiting for prior order block entries on smaller timeframes if a bullish trend shift occurs off the monthly level.
Realized the importance of sizing correctly and the impact it could have had on the trade's profitability. Missed an opportunity to size appropriately due to waking up late and acting on gut instinct.
Emphasized the importance of proper candle timeframe alignment for better trade timing, reducing premature entries, and ensuring high accuracy.
Performance and Reflection:
The trade went in my favor, and the setup was validated by the break and retest pattern.
Noted that waiting for the right candle timeframe alignment to provide liquidity has been beneficial for accurate trade timing.
Identified the need for better pre-market preparation to avoid missing sizing opportunities and maximize trading potential.
Updated Trading Rules and Checklist:
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
Incorporate Weekly Draw on Liquidity, Inverse FVG, and other key resistance/support levels into the analysis.
Entry Criteria:
Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations, VWAP bands, Break & Retest, and FVGs for precise entry points.
Stop Loss and Targets:
Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands, prior significant levels, or identified support/resistance areas.
Execution Strategy:
Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.
Data Collection and Analysis:
Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.
Avoid Overtrading:
If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability order blocks.
Premarket Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.
Mental Preparedness:
If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.
VWAP Tracking:
Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
Adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month to align with key levels and use multi-day settings for more accurate entries.
Incorporate Weekly Analysis:
Incorporate analysis of weekly trends and FVGs to refine entry and exit strategies.
Adjust trades based on weekly trend reversals and significant levels identified on higher timeframes.
Track Data on Timeframes and VWAP Deviations:
Track the data on what timeframe perfectly aligns with each multi-day VWAP deviation.
Note the exact timeframe in which the entry was presented for future reference and high probability entries.
Entry Size and Risk Management:
Ensure proper position sizing using the position size calculator before entering a trade.
Avoid trading based on gut instinct and ensure all trades align with the predefined strategy and setup criteria.
Please provide the next trade entry and notes for further analysis and refinement.
4o
I woke up past my alarm clock, but I seen a trade setup present itself, and it went in my favor.
This was a break and retest setup/support turned resistance play for the premarket open serving as support in the premarket, which broke, went through the overnight gap between the prior day close and pre market open, and I took it for further downside toward the next draw on liquidity which was the weekly low. As that is the direction the market was still trending.
Draw on liquidity has worked well thus far with predicting the next target for me, and its a very simplistic approach of where the trend is likely to go next due to prior price action trend with multi-timeframe analysis.
Another I noted, was that the M5 chart may provide slightly better opportunities for entry for the time being, due to the higher timeframe levels being presented at the moment, and it appears the M5 variations provided no drawdown upon entry with high hit rate, so for now I will execute on that timeframe unless the data suggests otherwise.
Going into tomorrows trading session, I will be watching for a potential bounce at the 20D (Month Low) and for the most recent sweep on liquidity at the weekly low, to potentially hold for a bounce. If the bulls fail to hold the level tomorrow, I would expect that the next DOL is the prior month low, which is quite far away. There is also a 61.8% retracement level between the 30D Low to High. And since the range will likely be very large from a bearish to bullish trend shift, it may be smart to wait for prior orderblock entries on the smaller timeframes, if we do happen to get that bullish trend shift off of this monthly level.
I should have hit the trade I entered today with more size, but because my alarm clock didnt go off, I was unable to properly size, and because I went off gut instinct, I only took 1 contract. If I sized correctly, it likely could have been around an $800-$900 trading day.
Another thing that has been helping tremendously is waiting for the proper candle timeframe alignment for the move, when that specific candle is actually offer the buy side or sell side liquidity that Im expecting, I think that is the best way to actually time my trades. Other then getting in too early and getting stopped out with death by 1000 cuts. And while providing that liquidty, it also provides a trend shift & variation to ensure high accuracy & the A+ side of a setup.
Chose not to trade due to lack of high probability setups and observed volatility in the market.
Noted that many elite traders also had red trading days, reinforcing the decision not to trade.
Trade of the Day Setup:
Premarket Analysis:
Observed H12 downtrend, Daily downtrend, and bearish shift in the Weekly trend after a break of the Upper Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG).
Planned a short setup based on these trends, with a stop loss at the top of the FVG, but the stop loss distance (80-100 points) was too large for a tight entry with size.
Session Analysis:
The market opened at 9:30 in the center of the middle and bottom VWAP bands, with consistent downside momentum.
No extremities to trade against, such as VWAP band touches or mean reversion setups.
VWAP Settings and Observations:
Discovered the ability to adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month.
Plan to use Anchored VWAP with multi-day settings (1D-5D for Week, 1D-20D for Month) to align with key levels.
Aim to track data on timeframes that align perfectly with each multi-day VWAP deviation for future high probability entries.
Refined Trading Rules (Including New Insights):
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
Incorporate Weekly Inverse FVG and other key resistance/support levels into the analysis.
Entry Criteria:
Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations, VWAP bands, and FVGs for precise entry points.
Stop Loss and Targets:
Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands, prior significant levels, or identified support/resistance areas.
Execution Strategy:
Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.
Data Collection and Analysis:
Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.
Avoid Overtrading:
If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.
Premarket Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.
Mental Preparedness:
If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.
VWAP Tracking:
Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
Adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month to align with key levels and use multi-day settings for more accurate entries.
Incorporate Weekly Analysis:
Incorporate analysis of weekly trends and FVGs to refine entry and exit strategies.
Adjust trades based on weekly trend reversals and significant levels identified on higher timeframes.
Track Data on Timeframes and VWAP Deviations:
Track the data on what timeframe perfectly aligns with each multi-day VWAP deviation.
Note the exact timeframe in which the entry was presented for future reference and high probability entries.
No trade day.
This Trade Of The Day setup was basically an opeing short trade for both the premarket and session open.
It was very volatile, there was not any Daily VWAP band touches, nor VWAP touches, nor Mean Reversion setups present. And I happened to notice, basically all of the elite traders that I follow, had a red trading day today. So I guess it was a good decision for me not to trade, since I didnt see any high probability setups occur.
During yesterdays premarket open, due to the H12 downtrend, Daily downtrend, and bearish shift in the Weekly downtrend up a break of the Upper Weekly FVG, I assume that a stoploss on the top of the FVG from the 9:30 open may havem been a plausable setup, but the major issue is that the stoploss would have been around 80-100 points, way too far. I wanted a tight entry with size, I just couldnt find it. I was at mimimum waiting for a VWAP retest and failure, but the sell side on the day was volatile and had alot of momentum. It was a 9:30 open, in the center of the middle and bottom VWAP band, with a consisent downside trend, with no extremities to trade against.
Something I did also take note of today, was that my VWAP settings can be adjusted to DAILY, WEEK & MONTH settings. And with this, I can still utilize as an Anchored VWAP, with multi day settings from 1D-5D on the WEEK setting, and also 1D-20D settings for the MONTH settings. I will play with this in the future, as its deviational bands, seem to align with key levels. AND if I miss the moves from the extension of these bands, I WANT TO TRACK THE DATA ON WHAT TIMEFRAME PERFECTLY ALIGNED WITH EACH MULTIDAY VWAP DEVIATION, AND THE EXACT TIMEFRAME IN WHICH THE ENTRY WAS PRESENTED, therefore in the future, I can refer back, and get high probability entries.
Slept in late due to lack of response from APEX regarding trading issues.
Missed trading opportunities as a result.
Trade of the Day Setup:
VWAP Analysis:
Today's setup was a straightforward VWAP Upperband to Lowerband short on the M1 timeframe.
The 2 Day Anchored VWAP did not present any extremes for a short entry.
Insights:
Plan to start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines for identifying high probability trade entries.
Recognized the importance of being prepared and at the computer early, especially before significant data drops.
Refined Trading Rules (Including New Insights):
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
Entry Criteria:
Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations and VWAP bands for precise entry points.
Stop Loss and Targets:
Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands or prior significant levels (Daily Open, Previous High/Low).
Execution Strategy:
Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.
Data Collection and Analysis:
Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.
Avoid Overtrading:
If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.
Premarket Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.
Mental Preparedness:
If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.
VWAP Tracking:
Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
Another no trade day, I slept in late because I never got an early response from APEX on the inability to trade. And although its likely made me miss alot of opportunity this week, I will be at the computer early tomorrow before data.
With that being said, todays trade of the day was a simple VWAP Upperband to Lowerband short off of the 1 Day M1 timeframe. The 2 Day Anchored VWAP didnt provide any extremitiy to either of the bands to short.
But, this week has provided some insight, that it will likely be smart to start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines in the future for high probability trade entries.
Execution could have been on the 5D 5 Minute timeframe (M5).
Future Strategy Adjustments:
Execution Timeframe:
When encountering a new weekly range, refer back to this setup.
Adjust from the M1 timeframe to a higher execution timeframe such as M5 or M15.
Execution Data:
More data should suggest the best possible approach.
Refer to M5 executions for daily levels, prior day high, weekly range Anchored VWAP bands, or a Daily Orderblock, unless proven otherwise.
Mental Trade:
Mental Long Entry:
Mentally executed a long entry off the initial move up from market open.
The trade wound up failing.
It was beneficial not to trade today, as it likely prevented a loss.
Setup Classifications:
A Side Setup: Initial move.
B Setup: Break and retest with high probability at orderblocks with unfilled orders.
C Setup: To be defined in the future.
Action Points:
Higher Timeframe Confirmation:
Utilize higher timeframes like the H12 to confirm trends before changing bias.
Execution Timeframe:
Default to higher timeframes (M5, M15) for execution around daily levels, prior day highs, weekly Anchored VWAP bands, and Daily Orderblocks.
Avoid Trading on Execution Issues:
If trading is halted, use the time to observe and mentally execute trades to refine strategy without risking capital.
Follow Setup Classifications:
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.
No Trade Day for me. Currently having executional problems with APEX. They are not allowing my to execute any trades, and im getting a 'trading temporarily halted'
But here is the trade of the day setup.
For some reason, I was referring yesterday, to the anchored VWAP when analyzing the next potential range setup. I noticed in the premarket session, that the prior day high and the prior day low, were quite far away, and that the 2 Day Anchored VWAP provided todays short signal at the top of the band.
On todays opening, the Daily chart was suggesting a draw on liquidity to the prior day low, because of the daily candle downtrend. And also, suggesting a weekly draw on liquidity to the prior week high, because of the weekly uptrend.
So this is an interesting setup that occured today, and im seeing some correlation with higher timeframe setups, and incorporating a VWAP to a wider range based on that. I just havent yet figured out how to correlate it, or how to find it again in the future. I was kind of just going off of gut instinct yesterday on my sunday analysis when I figured that the 2 Day Anchored VWAP would provide an accurate signal for todays trading session that I missed.
Also, the best timeframe to execute this setup was on the M5 chart following the break of the prior day high for a reversal, and the 2 Day Anchored VWAP Upperband for a short on the correct side of the V, or in this case ^, with a sell stop order. With stops at HOD.
There has also been 2 consecutive Daily Bearish Orderblock rejections, with this day included, and the trade could have been executed on the 5D 5 Minute timeframe (M5)
So in the future, when we see a new weekly range created. We will refer back to this, and adjust from the M1 timeframe, likely to a higher execution timeframe such as the M5 or M15 chart. More data should suggest the best possible approach, but as of today, the next time we reach a daily level, prior day high, weekly range Anchored VWAP bands, or a Daily Orderblock, we will refer to M5 executions, unless proven otherwise.
Another thing, we took a mental trade today, since we were unable to execute, and it was a mental long entry off of the first initial move up from market open. And it wound up failing. So overall, I guess it was a good thing that we couldnt trade today, because I would have likely taken that loss. So in the future, we will only intend to play the A side of each setup, which is the initial move. B setups will be classified as break and retests, with the highest probability retests being at orderblocks where there are unfilled orders. And we will define C setups in the future.
Missed Opportunity: Long entry off the 8:30 data reaction was identified but not taken due to the position size calculator suggesting the stop loss was too far.
Wake-Up Time: Waking up at 8:30 on the dot caused you to miss the potential long opportunity and affected your preparation for the 9:30 trading session.
Market Context:
The H12 trend was still down, suggesting a continuation lower.
Weekly DOL far below indicated a potential downside target.
The bottom band of the VWAP was tested, suggesting a possible top to bottom band move.
BLUE ZONE: The data reaction held the BLUE ZONE, indicating a possible shift in directional bias.
VWAP Bands: Confluence of data release with the VWAP bands could strengthen the given signal.
Things Done Right:
Immediate Stop Losses: Took immediate stop losses on the M1 chart and used trail stops.
Things Done Wrong:
Overtrading: Took 5 trades total; should have walked away after 2 consecutive losses.
Going Against Data Reaction: Ignored the data release reaction, which held significant support levels.
Late Wake-Up: Did not wake up at least 1 hour before the major market data release.
Recommendations and Checklist
Recommendations:
Preparation:
Wake-Up Time: Wake up at least 1 hour before any major market data release to analyze premarket conditions and prepare for potential setups.
Data Impact: Always consider the impact of significant data releases on market direction.
Trade Management:
Stop Losses: Continue using immediate stop losses and trail stops but review the placement to ensure they are not too tight.
Limit Trades: Limit the number of trades to avoid overtrading. Consider stopping after 2 consecutive losses to reassess the strategy.
Market Context:
Trend Alignment: Ensure trades align with the dominant trend (H12 trend in this case).
BLUE ZONE Analysis: Pay attention to BLUE ZONES and their confluence with major levels like VWAP bands.
Review and Adapt:
Trade of the Day: Identify and review the best trade setup of the day to create a playbook strategy.
Emotional Discipline: Maintain emotional discipline and avoid revenge trading after consecutive losses.
Structured Checklist
Before Market Open:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any major data release.
Review and analyze the premarket session for potential setups.
Identify significant data releases and their potential impact.
Pre-Trade:
Confirm the dominant trend (H12, daily).
Check for confluence of BLUE ZONES with major support/resistance levels.
Evaluate the VWAP bands and their relationship with current price action.
Use the position size calculator to determine appropriate position size and stop loss levels.
During Trading:
Limit to a maximum of 2 trades if initial trades result in losses.
Use immediate stop losses and trail stops as needed.
Avoid overtrading and stick to the planned setups.
Post-Trade:
Review the day's trades and identify the "Trade of the Day."
Update the playbook with new setups and observations.
Reflect on emotional discipline and areas for improvement.
Setup: Look for long entries off the data reaction if the BLUE ZONE and VWAP upper band confluence holds.
Entry Criteria: Enter long on M1 bullish variation signals if confluence levels are respected.
Stop Loss: Place stop loss below the BLUE ZONE or significant support levels identified in the premarket analysis.
Take Profit: Target VWAP upper band or significant resistance levels based on trend and market context.
Today was a losing day, I lost 5 trades in a row on tight M1 stoplosses. When I was evaluating the premarket session, I analyzed a scenario where I could have went long off the the 8:30 data reaction, but when I put it into my position size calculator, it was suggesting that the data reaction stoploss was too far from Premarket Open print, and the M1 LONG signal off of the Bearish to Bullish Variation.
I also woke up at 8:30 ONTHEDOT, so I decided to pass up on the potential long oppt. and just wait for the 9:30 trading session.
Anaylzing the move in hindsight, that long entry was the A+ setup for the day, and in the future I will have to incorporate the first big data drop for that trading session as the deciding factor for direction OTD.
There was a weekly DOL far below after the prior day Daily downtrend shift, suggestion that the WEEK DOL could be the next target, and around 8:30, the H12 trend was still down, as well as the H12 structure, indicating that the market should continue lower.
I also figured that around 8:49, since the bottom band of the VWAP was tested on the data release, that we could potentially see a TOP to BOTTOM band move since the technical upside target was reached within the range. And I thought that upon 9:30 open, we could see a flush down/hold at the bottom band/Long oppt scenario if we were unable to sweep the data lows, providing for a higher R/R and lower risk long from the bottom band if presented.
Another thing to note, is the Blue ZONE that held from the data reaction. have seen consistency thus far with BLUE ZONES, which are DOL(BSL&SSL) areas, that are in sequence with major highs and lows across all timeframes/timelines
This type of DOL BLUE ZONE, happened prior, and I have noticed, act as a sufficient 'Line In The Sand' area. And when breached, they should usually break hard and provide a momentum increase of stop hunting. But when these areas are held, it usually means that the 'Line In The Sand' was held, and that the directional bias has been decided
Also, if the data release has a confluence with a TOP or BOTTOM VWAP band, it could likely have more strength in the givin signal
Overall, the deciding factor of todays trend was the DATA release, and it completely reversed the market trend which provided me with a bearish signal to go off of. Very tricky day.
Although my position size calculator suggested that the stoploss was too far, I think I could have still just taken the strength of the HOLD signal, and taken my chances. My size was still low, and I could have recuperated if it went against me. But that could definitely just be hindsight bias, because had the trade went against me, I would be writing that the PMH to premarket open print provided higher R/R, and would be typing the exact opposite here. It really feels like one of those days of inneviatble loss, where my only thing I could have done right today, is just take the 2 losses and walk.
(Things I Did Right)
- Taking my immediate stoplosses on the M1 chart, trailstopping from the time on entry
(Things I Did Wrong)
- Overtrading (I took 5 trades total, when I should have walked away from the computer after 2 losses in a row)
- Going against the Data Release Reaction HOLD of the Bottom VWAP Band, The Prior Day Low & 5 Day Low Draw On Liquidity HOLD, and the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation indicating demand
- Not waking up at least 1 hour before major market data release
Discipline: Waking up late due to staying up late affected your ability to trade with discipline.
Missed Opportunity: Acknowledged that there were significant trading opportunities throughout the day.
Trade of the Day Setup: Noted straightforward short opportunities both premarket and during the trading session.
Observation on Patterns: Recognized that variations and trend shifts have shown a high hit rate and confirmation in trades.
Recommendations and Learnings
Discipline and Routine:
Maintain a disciplined sleep schedule to ensure you wake up well before trading hours.
Avoid activities that could disrupt your trading focus and schedule the night before.
Missed Opportunities:
While missed, use this as a motivation to stay disciplined and capitalize on future opportunities.
Review missed setups to identify patterns and refine your playbook strategy.
Trade of the Day Analysis:
Continue to identify and document Trade of the Day setups for playbook development.
Focus on variations and trend shifts as they have shown higher success rates.
Risk Management:
Emphasize the importance of risk management strategies, including position sizing and stop-loss placement.
Consider the potential impact of volatility on trade decisions and adjust strategies accordingly.
Integrating Learnings into Playbook Strategy
Playbook Development
Setup Identification:
Clearly define entry criteria for variations and trend shifts identified premarket and during trading hours.
Incorporate VWAP and other technical indicators to confirm setups.
Execution Guidelines:
Ensure timely execution based on identified Trade of the Day setups.
Validate setups against broader market conditions and economic data releases.
Review and Adapt:
Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data.
Continuously refine entries, exits, and risk management protocols to improve consistency.
Checklist for Future Trades
Preparation:
Commit to a disciplined routine, including adequate rest and premarket analysis.
Document and analyze potential setups based on identified patterns and indicators.
Execution:
Execute trades based on predefined criteria and playbook strategies.
Monitor market conditions and adapt strategies as necessary during trading hours.
Reflection:
Reflect on each trading day to assess performance against predefined goals and strategies.
Capture insights and lessons learned to inform future trading decisions and adjustments.
By integrating these recommendations into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy and checklist.
No Trade Day for me, I was talking way too late with a baddie from Monkey, and I woke up around 11:45, It was bad discipline on my part, and for that reason, I didnt want to pull the trigger.
I did miss a pretty volatile day with plenty of opportunity, actually, probably the most opportunity of the week. But, I got myself out of drawdown this week so far, and I still have tomorrows trading day left, so I will try to make the win for the week in tomorrows trading session.
Other than that, here is the 'Trade Of The Day' setup, both premarket DATA & in session trading opportunities, fairly straghtforward shorts.
One thing I am definitely noticing is that a Variation & and Trend Shift, seems to have very high hit rate and win percentage statistics and higher confirmation overall.
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