2D DOL Lower, 8:30 DATA Reversal, 9:30 Open DOL Lower, 9:30 Open Short, Afterhours Open Short, Breakeven Trade, D DOL Lower, DIdnt Reach Profit Target, DOL Higher, LIS (Bearish), LIS Reversal, M30 Bearish Orderblock S, M5 FVG Short, NFP, Turtle Soup Long, Upperband to Lowerband Short, VWAP Upperband Target, Wk Bearish to Bullish Trend Shift,

1. Contradictory Market Bias

• You initially identified potential bullish follow-through based on several technical factors (e.g., untapped demand areas and bullish "Line in the Sand"). However, despite these indicators, the overnight session had a short setup, and the market didn't follow your expected bullish bias. This reveals a mismatch between your analysis and market behavior, suggesting the need to refine your directional bias.

2. Ignoring Higher Timeframe Gaps

• One major mistake occurred during the 9:30 session, where you entered based on a 1-minute fair value gap closure without waiting for confirmation from higher timeframes (5-minute and 15-minute). The higher timeframe gaps held more significance, indicating that your entries were premature and lacked multi-timeframe alignment.

3. Misjudging Supply and Demand Zones

• You noticed the absence of a 5-minute demand zone in the overnight session, which may have contributed to your failed bullish "Line in the Sand." Similarly, during the 9:30 session, you anticipated that the bearish line in the sand would fail because there was no 1-minute demand zone. This led to a wrong bias and influenced poor trade decisions, including an unnecessary long.

4. Failure to Adapt to Market Conditions

• After identifying the shift from a bullish to bearish "Line in the Sand" between the overnight and 9:30 sessions, you failed to adapt quickly enough, sticking to a bullish bias when the market was signaling bearish. In hindsight, your first stop-out could have been the perfect short entry, showing hesitation to flip your bias in real time.

5. Overconfidence in Low Timeframe Setups

• You focused on low-timeframe setups (1-minute fair value gap, 1-minute demand area) without giving enough weight to higher timeframes and market structure. This led to false confidence in trades that were ultimately stopped out due to the dominance of larger, more influential market patterns.

6. Overtrading & Emotional Reactions

• You took multiple losses during the overnight session and continued trading into the 9:30 session without reassessing market conditions thoroughly. The "easy money trade" you took off the VWAP lower band was another loss, showing a pattern of overtrading rather than waiting for optimal setups.

7. Self-Reflection & Adjustments

• You recognize that many of the mistakes are avoidable, such as failing to align with higher timeframes, entering trades without strong confirmations, and misjudging the strength of demand and supply zones. The overall takeaway is that you need to make significant adjustments and improvements to avoid repeating these mistakes.

Key Improvements to Focus On:

1. Align Entries with Higher Timeframes – Ensure that your 1-minute or short-term entries are confirmed by higher timeframe signals (5-minute, 15-minute).

2. Respect Market Structure – Be more adaptable when the market structure changes (e.g., when the Line in the Sand flips).

3. Avoid Premature Bias Shifts – Stick to your plan, but be open to flipping bias when valid signals present themselves.

4. Reduce Overtrading – Limit the number of trades and ensure each entry has a strong technical basis, especially when early trades result in losses.

5. Focus on Key Setups – Prioritize higher probability setups and resist taking "easy" trades based on emotional reactions or minor signals.

By improving these areas, you'll be able to make better decisions, minimize losses, and increase your consistency moving forward.

 

 

Adjustments for the Next Trading Session:

1. Align Entries with Higher Timeframes

   • Focus on higher timeframe confirmations (5-minute, 15-minute) before taking 1-minute setups. Make sure the broader market structure supports your trade idea before entering on a smaller timeframe.

2. Respect Market Structure

   • Adapt to market shifts more quickly. If you see a shift in the "Line in the Sand" or market behavior contradicts your initial bias, be prepared to pivot and adjust your strategy, even if it means reversing your directional bias.

3. Improve Demand and Supply Zone Analysis

   • Ensure you're analyzing demand and supply zones across multiple timeframes, particularly the higher timeframes (5-minute, 15-minute). Don’t rely solely on untapped zones in lower timeframes (e.g., 1-minute) without supporting evidence.

4. Wait for Clear Confirmation

   • Instead of jumping into trades based on lower timeframe signals, wait for clear confirmation. If you're trading a 1-minute fair value gap, make sure there's alignment with higher timeframe gaps or other key levels (e.g., 50% mean reversions on larger timeframes).

5. Limit Overtrading

   • Set a rule for yourself to limit the number of trades you take. Once you hit your daily risk limit or experience two losses, step back and reassess the market without rushing into more trades.

6. Trade Only the Best Setups

   • Focus on your highest probability setups. Define and stick to "A+ setups" like key trend reversals or clear support/resistance breaks. Avoid chasing trades that don't align with your trading plan.

Key Intention for the Next Trading Session:

"Patience and Confirmation Over Impulse"

Your key focus should be waiting for higher timeframe confirmation before entering a trade. Every time you feel the urge to trade based on a lower timeframe signal, stop and check whether higher timeframes (5-minute, 15-minute, or even H1/H4) align with your idea. This will help you avoid premature entries and impulsive trading decisions.

 

 

Not a good trading session for both the overnight and 9:30 open session.

In the overnight, when performing my technical analysis, I noticed a few things. 

- We didnt reach the Daily draw on liquidity lower, and we created a slight bullish trend candle formation on the daily chart.

- We still didnt tap into the liquidity higher from the daily bearish fair value gap to the 2 day orderblock, or any liquidity sweeps/runs higher into any 50% mean reversions on higher timeframes

- We had a bullish Line In The Sand at that time

- We had an untapped 1 minute demand area, indicating a potential hold of the lower levels

All of these indicators, suggested to me that we could get potential bullish follow through, because althought I thought overall that the market would see lower prices, I thought in general that the market would want to trade to higher prices first, (ideally around the 2 Day Bearish Orderblock) (After liquidity was swept) to take a sell signal for lower prices. But this didnt happen. It was an overnight short setup from the overnight opening print on the first bullish to bearish variation. Which currently stands as this trading sessions 'Trade Of The Day' setup. 

So how did I trade this?

Well, I took 2 losses attempting to trade the 1 minute untapped demand area, and also got caught in a 'bullish line in the sand' reversal. 

I then entered shortly after on a 'Bullish Turtle Soup' setup after the liquidity was swept. And this trade was going well for some time, until It failed to reach my overall profit target, and came back to take me out of the trade at breakeven.

Then, I woke up and decided to trade the 9:30 session, and there was a full thing I was noticing from the technicals.

- We flipped from an overnight bullish line in the sand, to a 9:30 session bearish line in the sand. 

( And a key observation that I noticed in the failure of the overnight line in the sand, from my estimation, was that it was lacking a 5 minute demand area. None existed, because the liquidity on all 5 minute demands were swept at that time)

Because I thought that because there was no 5 minute demand for the bullish line in the sand, I also noticed that there wasnt a 1 minute demand area that existed for the bearish line in the sand.

This influenced my bias, to believe that the bearish line in the sand would also fail, and that I should approach the 9:30 session with a bullish bias, to tap into more sell side liquidity, and look for an extremity or reversal trade after liquidity was swept. 

Well, this didnt happen, and the 30 minute bearish orderblock created off of the bearish line in the sand rejection in the premarket session, at was the high for the 9:30 session open. 

The 9:30 session trade that I took, was a 1 minute close above a 1 minute 50% fair value gap, which also aligned in confluence with a close above the 1st deviation moving average. But I didnt wait for the 5 minute 50% fair value gap closure, OR the 15 minute fair value gap closure. Which was clear dispacement lower from the open, with a failure to reverse where I entered long. SO its clear that the higher timeframe fair value gaps held more weight than the 1 minute fair value gap. 

Upon this loss, I took one more final trade on what I have journal as my 'easy money trade' which is a simple reaction at the upper or lower VWAP bands.

In this case, I took a lowerband long setup off of a 1 minute price action reaction (bearish to bullish variation) and took my second loss for the session.

In hindsight, My first stopout ( 1 minute fair value gap failure ) actually could have provided me a short entry trade of the day setup, had I just chose to sell rather than to buy. So I made many mistakes between the overnight and the 9:30 trading sessions. 

Overall, I need to make many adjustments to ensure that I solve all of these mistakes and issues. And dont bring it into the next trading week. 

8:30 DATA, H6 Bullish Orderblock, Higher DOL Moving Average, Jobless Claims, M1 Demand Entry, M1 Displacement, M5 Bearish to Bullish Variation, premarket high to low 50% , VWAP Lowerband To Upperband, VWAP Upperband Target,

 

1. Timing and Data Awareness:

   • You woke up at 8:32 AM, just 2 minutes after the 8:30 data drop, and observed M1 displacement at the H6 bullish order block level.
   • The liquidity sweep through the H6 bullish order block suggests you should pay attention to these levels and monitor for potential liquidity draw misses.

2. Importance of Marking Liquidity Levels:

   • The missed lower daily draw on liquidity reinforces the need to consistently mark supply or demand liquidity extremes. This could help anticipate where price is likely to move in the future, giving a clearer roadmap for setups.

3. Chart Timeframe Consideration:

   • You noted that entering the trade on the M1 chart would have resulted in being stopped out at the low of the day before price moved in your direction. Conversely, entering on the M5 chart would have minimized drawdown and improved risk-to-reward.
   • This suggests that using higher timeframes like M5 for entries could offer better trade outcomes, especially in volatile conditions like post-data drops.

4. Overnight Session Scalping:

   • You took a scalp trade off an untested M1 demand area from the prior day and saw quick success after confirming a close above the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the premarket high to low.
   • This demonstrates a successful application of Fibonacci retracement and quick reaction to price action, leading to a profitable 1-2R scalp.

Areas to Consider:

• Continue refining entry precision by considering different timeframes (M1 vs. M5) to optimize for better risk management.
• Marking all supply/demand liquidity zones more accurately could prevent future missed opportunities and clarify extremes.

 

(NOTES)

I woke up somehow at 8:32 on the dot, which was pretty interesting being that data dropped 2 minutes piror, and I noticed M1 displacement through my H6 bullish orderblock level of interest. In which all of the liquidity was sweeped through the the H6 Bullish Orderblock stoploss, with a reaction off of that level, missing the lower daily draw on liquidity by about a 1 minute candle. So In the future, I think it will be very beneficial to mark 100% of supply or demand liquidity so that I can get an idea of the extremes in where price can likely head. 

But I took the retest long from my level of interest after the displacement from the 8:30 data, with a stoploss at my inital stop area from the H6 bullish orderblock. Looking at this trade in hindsight, had I taken the trade on the M1 chart, I would have been stop ran at the low of day for price to immediately have ran in my direction, but If i entered on the 5 minute chart, I would have experienced virtually no drawdown for a very high risk to reward trade. So we will have to keep that in mind for the future.

I did also take a scalp trade in the overnight session, off of an untested m1 demand area from the prior day, it immediately started running, and I didnt take the inital entry, but once we had a 1 minute close above the 50% fib from the premarket high to low, I scalped a long trade for about 1-2R.

1st Higher Low off 1M Demand, 20D 1H 50% FIB Low To High, 2D Bearish Orderblock Target, Cut Trade Early, Higher DOL Moving Average,

Here are the key takeaways from your trading notes:

1. Trade Setup & Execution:

   • You entered your first Topstep combine trade during the overnight session, based on an M1 demand area that aligned with M1 and M5 bullish confluence.
   • Your main level of interest was the 20-day, 1-hour low to high 50% Fibonacci retracement, which you used to identify a potential bottom.

2. Trade Management:

   • You experienced uncertainty about the demand level holding, so you waited for a second reaction before entering.
   • Despite anticipating the trade working out before you slept, the market chopped, and you eventually cut the trade early after waking up 1R positive.
   • Cutting the trade early locked in a win but missed a potential $260 profit that would have been achieved by sticking to your initial profit target.

3. Hindsight Reflection:

   • In hindsight, you recognize that had you followed your original plan and left the trade to work, it would have hit your profit target by 9:49 AM.
   • You acknowledged that although the action was sloppy and involved a fight for price, your analysis was correct, and the trade eventually reached the desired outcome.

4. Lessons Learned:

   • You expressed that while it's fine to have locked in a win, you probably should stick to your trade plan in the future and allow the trade to reach its full potential.
   • You also noted the importance of finding cleaner setups to avoid getting stuck in choppy, accumulative price action.

Summary: Your notes reflect a solid trade setup and execution, but a conservative decision to cut the trade early led to a smaller profit than anticipated. Moving forward, sticking to your trade plan and allowing trades to reach their full potential, as well as focusing on cleaner setups, are key areas for improvement.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I took my first Topstep combine trade here in the overnight session on a long entry from an M1 demand area created. I was unsure if the demand level would immediately drop, so I waited for a second reaction off of the m1 demand area, and had an M1 and M5 bullish confluence upon entry.

I was anticipating that the trade would work before I fell asleep, but it didnt, and I was watching it chop from the moment I entered, so when I woke up I was roughly 1R positive on the trade, so I decided to just cut it and lock in my first win to start the account off in a positive direction.

In hindsight, had I just left the trade, I wouldve reached my profit target, which at that time was just the premarket open print, and I would have made around $260. Its fine. Im okay that I cut the trade early, althought I probably should just stick to the plan in the future.

It was sloppy action on the 20D 1 Hour low to high 50% fib, which was the main level I was trading off of to find a potential bottom. There was multiple M1 demand areas created from the PML created on this trading session, and an overall fight for price. So I was stuck in an overall accumulation that didnt want to pop at the time. But I would have hit my profit target at 9:49AM. Next side I guess I should obsviously just let the trade work. But I think we can find a cleaner setup. 

5 min Bull Flag, Daily Bearish Orderblock,

Another Important Observation*** We backtested an interesting correlation between the 1st deviation moving average, which is the day to day median on price, and there was 100 percent correlation for both premarket and session open prints, where the 1st deviation moving average acted as a MAGNET for price to attract to, before a move was to be made. So this moving average difference between both premarket and session open prints, can be a good gauge to whether price will go up or down for the session. And in this particular case, because we were trading off of weekly levels, and trying to gauge the week candle, it appears that the 1st deviation moving average, served as a draw on liquidity for a wider macro range, rather than a day to day trend following moving average, because the contradiction of daily bias is what actually presented the higher range trades to begin with. (Mostly from H12 Bearish Orderblocks) from what we observed, which can align quite well with a theoretical 3 screen system approach of H12, Daily, Weekly, with H12 being the execution screen, daily as the trade management screen, and weekly as the wave from which the trade is flowing. But overall, we will have to apply this moving average and open print correlation in the future to try to understand the daily draw on liquidity in the most simplistic form. 

 

 

RULES FOR OPEN PRINT & DAILY MOVING AVERAGE CORRELATION:

1. 1st Deviation Moving Average as a Magnet: There’s a 100% correlation observed between the 1st deviation moving average and price action during both premarket and session open. This moving average acts as a magnet for price, especially before significant moves, making it a critical indicator for gauging session direction.
2. Weekly Levels and Daily Bias Contradiction: Trading off weekly levels, the 1st deviation moving average served more as a draw on liquidity within a broader macro range rather than a trend-following tool. The contradiction in daily bias was a key factor in presenting higher-range trades, particularly aligned with H12 Bearish Orderblocks.
3. Three-Screen System Insight: Observations suggest that a theoretical three-screen system could be effective: using the H12 for execution, the daily chart for trade management, and the weekly chart as the guiding wave for trade direction.

Insights:

• The 1st deviation moving average can be used to predict whether price will go up or down for the session by monitoring its relationship with premarket and session open prints.
• When dealing with weekly levels, it’s crucial to consider the broader macro range and how the daily bias contradiction can impact trading opportunities.
• Aligning the H12, daily, and weekly charts can provide a structured approach to trading, with each timeframe serving a specific purpose in the trading process.

Trading Rules:

1. Utilize the 1st Deviation Moving Average: Always monitor the 1st deviation moving average in relation to premarket and session open prints. Use it as a gauge to predict the session’s direction.
2. Apply a Three-Screen System:
   • H12 Chart: Use as the execution screen for entering trades.
   • Daily Chart: Utilize for managing trades once they are open.
   • Weekly Chart: Reference for understanding the broader wave or trend in which the trade is occurring.
3. Consider Macro Range over Day-to-Day Trends: When trading off weekly levels, prioritize the macro range indicated by the 1st deviation moving average over the daily trend.

Overall Lesson:

The 1st deviation moving average is a powerful tool for identifying potential moves, especially when trading across different timeframes. Integrating this with a three-screen approach (H12, Daily, Weekly) can provide a robust framework for navigating both short-term and longer-term market movements.

How to Avoid Future Blowups:

• Stick to Higher Timeframes for Key Decisions: Ensure that your primary trade setups and management decisions are based on the weekly and H12 charts.
• Respect the 1st Deviation Moving Average: Don’t ignore the signals provided by the 1st deviation moving average, especially around premarket and session opens. It’s a crucial indicator of potential liquidity draws.
• Avoid Overemphasizing Daily Bias: Recognize when the daily bias might conflict with weekly levels and adjust your strategy accordingly to avoid getting caught in choppy or contradictory price action.

 

 

 

Key Takeaways:

• Market Shift Sensitivity: The account was successful in trending conditions but faced significant losses when the market shifted, particularly when dealing with weekly and monthly levels that disrupted the daily bias and range.
• Importance of Higher Timeframe Analysis: Consistent rejections were observed off of 12-hour bearish orderblocks, highlighting the importance of analyzing and respecting macro levels and imbalances.
• Orderblock Reliability: Bearish orderblocks, even after liquidity was swept, continued to provide reliable rejections, indicating that these areas remain valid until a full body close occurs beyond the liquidity level.

Things Done Right:

• Identification of Rejections: Correctly identified consistent rejections from higher timeframe orderblocks, particularly the 12-hour and daily charts.
• Liquidity Sweep Recognition: Noted that liquidity sweeps between 12-hour fair value gaps and imbalances were key to understanding price movements.

Things Done Wrong:

• Misjudging Orderblock Validity: Incorrectly assumed that once liquidity was swept on orderblocks, they were invalidated, leading to trades against these strong levels.
• Over-reliance on Moving Averages: Relied on daily bias via moving averages, which proved unreliable when playing off weekly levels due to the mismatch in the timeframe of analysis.

New Trading Rules:

1. Orderblock Validation: An orderblock is only invalidated if there is a full body close above or below the buyside or sellside liquidity area from which the orderblock originated, and this close must occur on the same timeframe as the orderblock itself.
2. Weekly Level Consideration: When trading off weekly levels, incorporate a 5-day perspective and consider using a 5-deviation moving average for more accurate levels.
3. Macro-Level Focus: Prioritize trading at extremes of orderblocks and liquidity levels on higher timeframes (12-hour and weekly) rather than focusing solely on daily imbalances.

Overall Lesson:

• Adaptability to Market Conditions: The key lesson is the necessity of adapting strategies based on the timeframe and current market conditions. Recognizing the ongoing validity of orderblocks and liquidity sweeps on higher timeframes can prevent premature reversals and losses.

How to Avoid Future Blowups:

1. Respect Higher Timeframe Levels: Ensure that higher timeframe levels, especially those on weekly and monthly charts, are respected, and avoid trading against these levels without solid confirmation.
2. Orderblock Reassessment: Before dismissing an orderblock as invalid, confirm it with a full body close on the same timeframe that created the orderblock, avoiding trades against strong rejection levels.
3. Backtest and Adjust: Backtest moving averages on a 5-day deviation to align better with weekly price action, ensuring a more reliable trend perspective when trading within larger timeframes.

 

 

 

 

We completely blew our papertrading account this week, and we went from an ATM printer machine on the way up, to a complete blowup once the market shifted, and this has been a continuous pattern that we have noticed. When the market trades off of weekly and monthly levels. I think its because these levels tend to completely chop the daily range and the bias. So what tends to happen when the daily bias flips during the day, everyone gets knocked out of position because both sides get stop hunted. 

So obviously its more important to play off of the macro levels. And one thing that I am noticing with a birds eye view of the entire week from the 5 Day 5 Minute perspective, there was consistent reliable rejections off of H12 Bearish Orderblocks, and the completely sweep of liquidity between 12 hour fair value gaps and imbalances. So it could be that because of the imbalance from a 12 hour persepctive, which is half the amounf of time as a full daily candle, that the imbalance between the 12 hour candles created a massive area of liquidity to be swept each day, and you would have to play the extremes and orderblocks of each 12 hour imbalance rather than day to day imbalances.

Another very important thing to note, is that the bearish orderblocks that were created, such as on the 1 day and 12 hour charts, provided consistent rejections AFTER the have already been swept. So we will have to implement a new trading rule in the future, that if we are playing weekly levels, or weekly candles, that you cannot disregard swept liquidity on orderblocks on daily and 12 hour charts, until there is a full body close above or below the stoploss area, meaning buyside or sellside liquidity on the timeframe in which the orderblock is presented. 

Another important note, is that we were trying to guage where this weekly candle would bottom, and we noticed on the prior bar that there was sell side liquidity below the prior weekly low, with a liquidity imbalance to the downside at the next bullish weekly orderblock to the downside. All of the liquidity in this area was swept today from downside back to the upside. So its very important when playing a weekly candle or weekly level, where the max pain or max imbalance is on price for that week to establish where extremity points can come from.

We can also implment a new rule. If the timeframe on the orderblock, is higher than the timeframe of the draw on liquidity. These levels can predict a higher probability of the market reversing. 

We also located on the weekly chart that although the weekly bearish orderblock, already had swept liquidity, it rejected a second time once retested, which was last weeks market reversal top, which came from consistent wick rejections on the 12 hour bearish orderblock, created from the 12 hour bearish orderblock on the 2nd weekly draw on liquidities wick high, and this 12 hour bearish orderblock, still provided consistent rejections after the liquidity was already swept.

So it seems alot of the reason for our losses during this week, was because we assumed since liquidity has already been swept on these orderblocks, that they were less likely to hold or provided 2nd a 3rd trade opportunites, and we would try to trade against them anticipating that the levels would break, but they never did. So we clearly need to establish new defined rules on orderblocks and swept liquidity. SO again, we will establish yet another persepctive on this new rule. The orderblock is ONLY invalidated, if there is a full body close above or below the buyside or sell side liquidity area established at the high point or low point from which the orderblock came, with the full body close coming from the same timeframe as the orderblock itself. 

If we do this, we can play the right side of the V setup at the extremities of the orderblock itself, and the buy side or sell side liquidity levels, if the bar has not yet closed outside of the liquidity level, potentially providing a deep risk reward setup against any potential wick rejections. 

Another important note, is that although the moving averges had a general daily bias overview, they werent reliable from a daily trend perspective while playing off of weekly levels, because obviously, a week is 5 days worth of price action, and our moving averages are only 1 and 2 deviation which means 2 days of price action, so there is an imbalance of another 3 days. So maybe we will do a backtest on a 5 deviation moving average to see if we could have found any levels. 

Another thing to note, is that the 2nd day rejection on the week, came from a 61.8% retracement from the high to low after a new 5 day (week range) was established. So we can note this for the future.