ITS CRUCIAL THAT I CREATE A MORE SIMPLIFIED DAY TO DAY ENTRY SYSTEM, BASED ON TREND FOLLOWING SYSTEMS FOR TOMORROWS TRADING SESSION.
THIS WILL BE CREATED, SO THAT WHEN I WAKE UP IN THE MORNING, AND I AM SIMPLY JUST FOLLOWING PRICE ACTION, I WILL HAVE SOME SEMBLENCE ON THE EXACT CONTEXT THAT THE MARKET IS TRADING IN, AND WHERE EXACTLY THE BROKEN SLOT MACHINE IS, IN ORDER TO CAPTURE DAY TO DAY EASY MONEY SETUPS.
SO WHAT I HAVE TO DO, IS ESTABLISH THE TIMEFRAME IN WHICH THE TREND IS MOST SUBSTANCIAL, COUPLED WITH THE TIMEFRAME ENTRY THAT SHOULD BE PROVIDED IN ORDER TO ENTER, SIMPLY FOR THE PROCESS OF STACKING BASE HITS.
WE CAN DO THIS ALONGSIDE OUR MACRO ANALYSIS, TO ENSURE MORE CONFIRMATION WITH OUR ENTRIES.
THIS WILL BE OUR MAJOR PRIORITY WHEN WE WAKEUP IN THE MORNING.
Based on your detailed notes, here are the key things you should monitor in price action moving forward:
1. Yearly Fibonacci Levels and Liquidity Draws
50% Level Failure: The failure at the 50% yearly Fibonacci retracement is crucial. This has set up the potential for further downside, with liquidity draws being targeted below the prior long positions at the 50% level. The first downside liquidity draw target is around 19140.
61.8% Target: Your main target for the current downtrend is the 61.8% retracement level, which aligns with the 18670.50 level on /MNQ. This is your downside target, and you should continue monitoring for this level to be hit or for a reversal to occur around it.
2. Market Manipulation and Liquidity Grabs
Stop Loss Hunts: You’ve identified key levels where stop losses are likely being swept (e.g., 19140), and this may be setting up a potential reversal. If the market continues to take out liquidity below the lows, keep an eye on price behavior at these levels for potential reversal points.
Open Gaps and Market Open Dynamics: The market’s behavior around open gaps and the first minute of the trading session is a strong indicator. As you mentioned, the gap from the prior Friday’s close and the swift fill of the gap on the open was a sign of continued weakness. These types of movements will be critical to watch.
3. 3-Day Bullish Orderblock
3-Day Bullish Orderblock at 19140: This has acted as a key level for a potential market reversal. The price action around this level suggests that this could be the market bottom or a key reversal area. You need to monitor whether the market respects this level going forward and if a bullish trend shift occurs from here.
Watch for bullish variations and 1-minute bullish entries from this orderblock, as you identified it as being a strong point of support.
4. Potential Quarterly Closing Dynamics
As we are approaching the end of the quarter, the quarterly low and market behavior around it are important. The price action is trading well below the prior quarter’s low, so it’s critical to assess whether a potential quarterly close back above the low could signal a market shift or reversal.
Watch the OptX candle for any potential gap or imbalance that could indicate further directional movement.
5. 5-Minute and 1-Minute Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
You’ve noted the failure of the first bullish 5-minute FVG entry and how that led to your short position. Keep monitoring FVGs on the 1-minute and 5-minute charts for future entries, as these have been a reliable signal in your setups.
Downside Displacement and Silver Bullet Entries: You observed that the downside displacement on the 5-minute chart at 9:54 AM provided a solid entry. Similarly, the 3-minute bullish silver bullet entry at 10:26 AM also showed promise. These quick entries could be critical to catch during volatility.
6. Bullish Divergence between /MNQ and /MES
You’ve noted a bullish SMT divergence between /MNQ and /MES. This is something you should continue tracking, as it may indicate that the broader market could turn bullish while /MNQ exhibits more bearish tendencies. Keep an eye on the relative strength or weakness between these two instruments.
7. Time of Day Considerations
As highlighted, you were able to catch opportunities in the 9:30 AM NY session post-data. Moving forward, ensure that you are taking note of key data releases (e.g., Chicago PMI) and waiting for the market to settle post-data before entering.
Midday Session: You could also monitor for secondary setups, especially as price action unfolds and market sentiment stabilizes after the initial rush from the open.
8. High-Probability Entries
Missing Entries: As you’ve noted, missing entries by just a few ticks can have a significant impact on your risk-reward potential. Be mindful of waiting for confirmed signals before entering and avoid chasing price.
Reversal Confirmation: When you are stopped out of a trade, especially in volatile conditions like today, it’s essential to quickly reassess the market for a potential reversal trade.
9. Key Levels to Monitor
19140: The level you mentioned as a potential target for downside liquidity draw and where reversal could occur.
19518.50: This is the bearish FVG confluence level that you highlighted as a potential level for upside draw. Watch for price reaching this level and consider potential short opportunities around it.
OptX Candle (20536.75): Although this is far from current price action, keep this level in mind as a long-term target that may signal a sharp market reversal.
By focusing on these levels and price action cues, you can stay more aligned with the current market structure and adapt to any shifts that occur. Your overall thesis seems to be targeting downside liquidity draws, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the quarterly close dynamics being key areas to focus on.
Key Takeaways from Today's Trading Notes:
Market Context & Anticipation:
Gap Down Opening: The week opened with a gap down, and the price quickly filled this gap, signaling continued weakness.
Weakness Confirmation: The failure of the 50% yearly Fibonacci and the lack of bullish signals supported a bearish outlook. A significant drawdown was anticipated, targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci level for /MNQ at 18670.50.
Draw on Liquidity: The first target was to run the stop losses below the first 50% retracement test, which were anticipated to provide the initial downside liquidity.
Trade Entry & Missed Opportunity:
A limit order short was placed based on a 5-minute downside displacement and 1-minute Fair Value Gap (FVG) entry but was missed by only 0.25 ticks, causing frustration as the price moved down over 100 points afterward.
Patience with Trade Setup: Despite the missed entry, the trade setup was valid, with a lower draw on liquidity target at 19140, which was expected to be hit before the NY session.
Trade Execution on March 31:
Triggered Short Entry: The short trade was finally triggered, based on the bearish displacement FVG that wasn't tapped into during the overnight session.
Partial Target: First partial was taken off at the newly established low of the day at 18976.75, achieving a 5.26R trade, with the extended target for 10.20R.
Quarterly Chart Reflection: The prior quarterly low had been breached, signaling the market's bearishness. However, there was potential for a larger reversal due to the OptX candle and the 3-day bullish order block identified.
Losses & Missed Context:
Stopout: The trade was stopped out, which was identified in hindsight as a manipulation stop hunt before a continuation lower.
Liquidity Draw & Reversal: The initial target at 19140 was already hit, and the reversal came from a 3-day bullish order block level, signaling possible strength in the market.
Bullish Divergence: A bullish divergence was noticed between /MNQ and /MES, which further indicated that the market could potentially shift to a bullish phase.
Tracking Higher Timeframes: The 3-day chart now needed to be tracked more carefully, as the market may have shifted to a bullish trend with the bullish order block.
Key Observations & Learnings:
Choppy Market: The market was hard to read, with price moving both ways. Even more experienced traders faced losses, suggesting the market conditions were difficult.
Risk/Reward Reflection: The trade was still valid, even with the loss, as the potential for a 5.26R or 10.20R trade was high.
Lessons on Trade Timing: The highest probability entry was the missed trade in the overnight session. The 9:30 AM New York session had an entry opportunity that was too late to capitalize on.
Future Consideration: The next moves should consider the bullish context created by the 3-day bullish order block and monitor for any high timeframe resistance before further bearish action.
Sunday March 30th, 2025
8:01PM: The new week opened on a gap down from the friday close at 19362.25 and opened at 19317.75, but on the first minute of open, price spiked to fill the entire gap on the week, and display continued weakness in price. And the reason why I anticipate further weakness in price to start this weeks opening candle, is because on friday the 50% yearly fibonacci failed, being that the 5 minute bullish variation failed which was the consisent entry for the last 2-3 taps of the 50% level. But also because, there was no long signal to enter on /MNQ from the 2 hour trend shift, with a first presented 5 minute fair value gap silver bullet entry. and as it currently stands, the current 2 hour candle high is now below the 50% mark, which also is a sign of further weakness. So for this reason, I am targeting the first downside draw on liquidity, which is the stoplosses sitting below the longs that are involved in the market off of the first 50% retracement test. I am anticipating those stoplosses to get ran, to run liquidity, and potentially even head for the next fibonacci level at the 61.8%. From QQQ that is the 450 price point, and from /MNQ that is 18670.50 which is significantly lower prices from here. So its looking like some real bloodshed is about to hit the market. But when there is panic, there is opportunity. So we will be patient, try to capture as much of this downside as we can, and wait for some bug players to reverse the market for a yearly bottom if we can find it.
I did have a limit order short entry at the first 5 minute downside displacement & 1 min FVG entry, but I literally missed the downside entry trigger by a .25 tick. And since I have missed the entry, the price has fallen over 100 points, and swept the downside lows which is signaling a likelihood that I missed the entry. But for now, I will simply leave the limit order and the stoploss at the respective high, with position sized for a very wide stoploss. As of right now, we are around 45 points away from the first initial target and draw on liquidity that I had at 19140. I assume they will be swept before the 9:30 NY trading session tomorrow.
Monday March 31st, 2025
1:04PM: I finally got triggered into a short trade, from the displacement bearish fair value gap that never got tapped into lastnight. I remained completely patient on this trade, without chasing at all, getting my entry missed by a single .25 tick, and being about 10 minutes into the trade right now, it seems the trade is beginning to work. I still have a lower draw on liquidity level target, with my main target being the 61.8% retracement level of the prior year candle on /MNQ, with my first partial being taken off at the newly created low of day established at 18976.75, so this would be a very high reward trade, at first partials being a 5.26R if hit, and extended targets being a 10.20R, so very very good risk to reward on this trade here for a lower draw on liquidity.
I will also add, that when analyzing the /MNQ Quarterly chart about a week to 2 weeks ago, I played a scenario in my head, where the prior quarterly low candles sell side liquidty would be swept, with the potential scenario of a closure back above the quarterly low, to set up next quarters bullish candle. But as it currently stands, we are trading far below the prior quarterly low at 19818, about 600 points below, and this is the final day of the quarter before the next candle opens.
I have taken note, that the OptX candle did create a downside displacement fair value gap, at the 20536.75 level. So this will be crucial with analysis of future price action, being that it will either act as an inverse with a rip back to all time highs, or that it will act as a major retracement level in the markets for a continuation downside dump, with that being said, the level is very far away for that massive of an imbalance in the markets, but what I take from it is that we should expect a big rip back up in markets sometime in the future. The next OptX candle will also be opening tomorrow for the start of April alongside the new Qr candle.
So for now, I am in this swing trade. And we will see how it plays out.
2:12PM. I have been officially stopped out of the trade. And that will be the only loss that I take on the day. Will review after 5:00PM to see exactly why this trade didnt work.
2:57. So this trade will obviously in hindsight be a manipulation stophunt for a continuation lower (which is my current thesis) or it will be a spot where the market has finally decided to reverse. As of right now, todays market bottom is coming from a 3D bullish orderblock level from September 4th, 2024. So the level was very far back in price action, Im not yet sure how relevant it is. But we will once again be waiting for the end of the day to try to understand the draw for price.
I think one thing that I can take from this trade, is that prior to me missing the first initial entry before I attempted to trade the retest here. My first draw on liquidity target, had I been triggered into the trade, would have been the first sell side stoploss sweep from the first long position taken off of the yearly 50% retracement, and that draw on liquidity target was already reached, before I was recently triggered into the trade short. But at the same time, I did have an ultimately lower price target at the 61.8% retracement, so I figured that upon entering my short trade, that I would at least be able to get back to LOD. But it turns out that the 19140 level is now acting as a liquidity grab level for the potential move higher. So I was ultimately reversed on, because the new week opening gap was swept on the first minute of market open, and it was just broken through for a second time which does show a willingness from bulls to push price higher. I did have a level from the 12 hour, 6 hour, and 4 hour bearish fair value gap confluence level. but the market opened on a gap down, swept the liquidity within the new week opening gap, and just proceeded to dump, so I figured that it was a less likely chance for us to draw back into that liquidity pool up top at the confluence bearish fair value gap level sitting at 19518.50. But as of now, I think that is the next upside draw on liquidty for any potential reversals back down.
The 3D bullish orderblock, worked with a simple 1 minute bullish variation entry, that also worked as a 1 minute inverse fair value gap upon the first test. So this specific level held very strong, and we are now made fully aware of the strength with 3D bullish orderblocks.
Another thing im going to have to do, is to check the other Nasdaq charts to see where this level also could have came from, because we were essentially playing the failure of the 50% retracement on QQQ for the continuation down. But its looking like we were chopped both ways. Because QQQ is essentially bouncing from in between the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels.
So a bit confusing on where price wants to head, or who is in control. And I have also seen on youtube that some more elite traders have also incurred some losses today. So it may just be one of those days where you ring the register.
Had I wanted to take this trade on an EVAL or XFA, a standard 50K account with 2K drawdown, actually wouldnt have allowed me to take this trade, being that the stoploss to the highs was 62.50 points. Which is higher than usual. Might I also add, that we are going to have to start adamantly tracking the 3 day chart now, to try to understand if todays move off of the 3 day bullish orderblock will create some type of bullish variation of the current 3 day bar. There is now a chance that because of today, there may be a 3 day chart imbalance, and we cant entirely rule out that this could also be the market bottom for the quarter, and that we dont necessarily need to trade all the way to the 61.8% retracement level in order to see a macro market reversal at these levels. So thats something we will have to remain aware of.
At minimum, if this doesnt happen to be the overall market bottom, we should at least anticipate some type of market retracement higher, before we would see any move lower, being now that our position has been reversed on both sides of the 50% retracement level on /MNQ. And like I said earlier, there will be a bearish gap created on the OptX candle. So these are all things in price that we are going to have to monitor.
And now that we have been made aware of the 3D chart on /MNQ, I decided to pull up the 3D chart on /MES, and have now Identified that there is a 3D chart SMT bullish divergence between /MNQ and /MES. So that is a very important observation to note. Another important observation to note, is that for any bullish confirmation on /MNQ from the current 50% retracement mark, we were waiting for the 2H bullish trend shift, paired with a first presented bullish FVG 5 minute entry, which is what we saw to confirm the last rally from the 50% mark. But we disregarded any potential 2 hour trend shifts, because we identified that the high of the 2 hour candle, was trading below the 50% retracement level mark, so we figured that any shift of the 2H trend would be invalidated. But this infact wasnt the case on the day. Overall, there WAS a failure of the first attempt for a bullish 2 hour trend shift, but AFTER sell side liquidity was swept on the first initial draw on liquidity lower at the 19140 level, the first 2 hour bullish trend shift reversal attempt actually wound up working on the day. But its also important to note, that the full entry trigger still wouldnt have been initiated, being that there wasnt any retest of any first presented bullish fair value gaps on the 5 minute chart. But being caught on the short side, could have very well been a chance that I was caught in a manipulation run higher from a macro perspective.
And the fact that the bottom of todays market low, was initiated off of a former 3D bullish orderblock, we are going to have to see some type of high timeframe resistance, in order to have any chance to shift this trend back down bearish. So until provided with a higher timeframe level than a 3D chart, we are going to have to remain cautiously bullish.
For the 9:30 new york trading session, upon reviewing this specific sessions trading opportunities, on top of the 3 day bullish FVG providing a 1 minute bullish variation entry, there was also an entry provided for the first 5 minute bullish displacement upon open. The market opened, flushed through the premarket low, and draw on liquidity at 19140, and there was a downside candle on the 5 minute chart that was displaced through at 9:54AM. and it provided a 3 minute chart bullish silver bullet entry, that was tappen into at 10:26AM. So this would have been a great trade opportunity provided after data cleared on the session at 9:45AM, which was the Chicago PMI data. Had I taken advantage of this opportunity, I would have caught around 450 points if I held the trade full run.
So between sessions, it was my entry that would have been highest probability had it triggered in yesterdays overnight session, without missing the entry by a .25 tick, rather than me trying to catch it in the new york session at 9:30am. These are more things that I can learn from for the future.
The main takeaways from the past few weeks of trading that I have personally identified, that arent being correctly showcased on ChatGPT is
- Off of the 1st test of the 50% retracement on /MNQ, I didnt hold the trade for a full stoploss, and the trade came all the way back to retest my entry, which happened to be the perfect entry model for the hindsight trade entry criteria of '50% Level, 2H Bullish Trend Shift, First Presented 5M Bullish FVG, Silver Bullet Entry'. So what I did wrong here, is not initially waiting for the bullish trend shift of the 2 hour chart, and that I took an aggressive entry, rather than a retest entry.
The problem on this specific level test, is there wasnt any data on the best entry. So I just went with my standard aggressive entry of a 1 minute variation of the extremity move down. And in hindsight it wouldve worked had I just been able to hold through the retest.
- When I shorted from the Prior Monthly Low, I didnt wait for price to tap into any liquidity pool (FVG's) so in hindsight, I entered prematurely, and should have waited for the next timeframe liquidity pool (6 Hour Bearish FVG) to be swept, until initiating a short trade. And when price tapped into that liquidty pool, it provided a consistent entry from the 6 hour fair value gap, with a 30 minute displacement entry.
One thing I think is very important to note, is that when I took a papertrade off of the prior month low, I didnt wait for price to enter or tap into the 6 hour bearish fair value gap, or a fair value gap in general. Which was the next timeframe liquidity pool surrounding that specific level. And that resulted in me taking a premature trading loss, prior to the liquidity sweep or manipulation hunt, before the move took place, and this is something that I need to remember in the future.
ChatGPT said:
Got it! This is a very important observation and should definitely be integrated into your checklist moving forward.
What you experienced was a premature entry without waiting for the liquidity sweep or manipulation hunt to occur, and this can often lead to a false move or premature loss, as price hasn't yet reached its intended level or manipulated the liquidity.
Key Takeaways from Your Observation:
Wait for Liquidity Sweep or Manipulation: The price tends to sweep liquidity or engage in manipulation before making its true move in the direction of the trend. Don’t enter before this happens.
Timeframe Confirmation: The 6-hour bearish FVG was key, and waiting for price to tap into that level would have provided a more optimal entry.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) Importance: FVGs are vital for pinpointing areas where price may retrace to before moving in the intended direction.
Incorporating This into the Checklist:
Liquidity Sweep & Manipulation Rule
Do not enter prematurely: Only execute the trade after price has performed a liquidity sweep or manipulation move around the key levels or Fair Value Gap.
FVG as an Entry Zone:
Always check if price has tapped into an FVG (especially on higher timeframes, like the 6-hour in your example).
Price should retrace to the FVG zone before entering a trade for confirmation.
Timeframe Alignment:
Confirm liquidity pools across multiple timeframes (6-hour, H4, etc.) to see if they align with entry points.
Entry should align with a sweep of liquidity in the direction of the prevailing trend.
Revised Entry Checklist (with your lesson in mind):
Higher Timeframe Liquidity & Bias Check
What is the main liquidity pool for today?
Has price already swept previous highs/lows?
Is there a Fair Value Gap on higher timeframes (H6, H12, etc.)?
Confirm Key Setup Formation
Wait for a liquidity sweep or market manipulation before entering.
Price should tap into an FVG or test key support/resistance level for a valid entry.
Entry Execution Criteria
Enter only after the sweep of liquidity or market manipulation.
Make sure the entry aligns with a discount/premium area or an FVG.
Place stop loss beyond the manipulated liquidity zone.
Trade Management
Consider partial profits at +1R if price quickly moves in your favor.
If the market structure shifts or price fails to hit the target, reevaluate.
Keep track of how the liquidity sweep affects the trade; adjust if it seems like price will reverse.
This approach will refine your decision-making and help avoid premature entries, leading to better risk management and higher probability trades.
Let me know if this adjustment resonates with you or if you'd like to tweak anything further!
...below the 50% retracement level, whereas on the /MNQ general contract, we are still trading above it. This creates a massive difference in bias depending on which contract you’re using for your analysis.
Key Takeaways from This Trade & Analysis:
1. Trade Setup & Execution (Paper Trade)
Entry: Prior monthly low (20460.25), shorted into the 6-hour bearish order block.
Refined Entry: 1-hour Silver Bullet FVG entry at 20494.50.
Stop Loss: 1-hour displacement candle high at 20513 (only 18.5 points of risk).
Outcome: Trade ran for an insane 61R risk-to-reward ratio, a potential account-making trade.
Lesson: Placing a stop at the 1-hour displacement high would have avoided manipulation and allowed full trade execution.
2. Market Context & Macro Analysis
Higher Timeframe Levels in Play:
Market is currently respecting monthly, quarterly, and yearly levels more than intraday levels.
Trading at macro liquidity levels means bigger moves and stronger reactions.
2024 Yearly Candle: Two scenarios:
Acts as a bullish displacement candle, leading to a 2025 uptrend (retracement to 50% or 61.8%).
Breaks down completely below 16332.25, confirming a bearish reversal.
Anticipation of Next Draw on Liquidity:
Prior quarterly low (19818) was expected to be tested before any macro higher low formation.
If 19818 fails to hold, next target = yearly 61.8% retracement at 18670.47.
Below that? Recession risk increases.
3. Key Trading Lessons & Refinements
Hindsight Analysis is Deceptively Easy
It seems simple when reviewing, but executing in real-time requires holding massive amounts of information (rules, setups, market structure, etc.).
Need to condense, simplify, and refine thought processes to avoid errors from emotional or discretionary trading.
A trading checklist is critical to systematizing execution and removing human error.
Journaling is Essential for Consistency
When journaling rigorously, you passed your evaluation effortlessly.
When you stopped journaling, you failed miserably.
This proves the necessity of daily journaling, regardless of taking trades or just tape reading.
The Payout Portfolio will be a tool to maintain long-term profitability.
4. Contract Discrepancies & Chart Confusion
/MNQ vs. /MNQM25 Discrepancies:
The 30-day low difference:
/MNQ = 19140
/MNQM25 = 19344.75
The 2024 Yearly Fibonacci Difference:
/MNQ 50% retracement still holds
/MNQM25 has already broken below it
QQQ ETF also differs from both, mirroring /MNQM25 closer.
Big Issue: These differences create confusion, inconsistent analysis, and potential losses due to differing key levels.
Solution Needed:
A systematic approach to bypass contract imbalances and ensure accurate market structure readings.
Stick to the /MNQ general contract for consistency in macro-level analysis.
Final Thoughts & Next Steps
Key Takeaways for Trading Strategy Refinement:
Always place stop losses at logical displacement levels to avoid manipulative stop hunts.
Use higher timeframe macro levels (monthly, quarterly, yearly) to determine major liquidity draws.
Journaling is non-negotiable—it must be done every day for consistent performance.
Refine a trading checklist to remove discretionary errors and enhance execution clarity.
Address contract rollover issues—stick to /MNQ general contract and find ways to handle discrepancies.
Upcoming Considerations:
Monday's trading session is the last day of the quarter.
If price doesn’t reclaim 19818, more downside is likely.
If breakdown continues, 18670.47 is next major liquidity draw.
Watch for potential recession risks if that level is breached.
This session provided valuable insights into market behavior, execution refinement, and journaling discipline. Moving forward, sticking to a structured checklist will be key to long-term success.
This trade presented itself at 9:43 AM on the most recent trading session. I personally didnt trade this because I woke up late, and I had a swing trade that I closed the day prior, which was a short from the prior month low at 20460.25, which tapped into a 6 hour bearish orderblock above the prior monthly low level, which was followed by a 1 hour bearish trend shift, and displacement, followed by a 1 hour Silver bullet entry. And I took that trade, (which was a papertrade by the way), all the way to the new week opening gap, which was a gap left from the most recent monday opening on 03/23/2025, since the prior friday closed at 19971, opened on a gap to 20052.25, and then rallied to the prior monthly low into the 6 hour bearish fair value gap that I just mentioned prior. So with that gap being unfilled, I didnt want to get too overly focued on more upside, and figured that the gap would likely be filled, and it surely did fill. The only reason that I caught the trade was because I took the trade on QQQ, and was manipulated out of my position as I entered the trade from the first entry provided from the prior month low, and I placeed a stop loss above the high at that time, in which price didnt yet manipulate higher into the 6 hour bearish fair value gap. So for that reason, my /MNQ position was manipulated and stop ran. And after I analyzed the trade in hindsight, I was able to breakdown the entry provided which was again, and run into the 6 hour bearish orderblock, with a 1 hour bearish trend shift, and a 1 hour silver bullet fvg entry, and had I simply placed a stoploss at the top of the 1 hour displacement candle, I could have only risked a small amound of 18.5 points, since the top of the 1 hour displacement candle was 20513, and the 1 hour silver bullet entry was 20494.50, and the distance between both is only 18.5 points. Very very good risk reward on the stoploss from how far the trade ran which was overall of a staggering unbelieveable 61R risk to reward ratio. Thats type of trade that can make someones year. So I will certainly be journaling that specific trade as well. Right now, I guess im jsut letting my mind kind of roam freely, as this is the beginning of my 'Payout Portfolio'. Which I fully plan to utilize every single day, regardless if I take a trade, or simply tape read, due to the fact that I believe it has to be incorporated If I plan to maintain consistent profitability in the markets, and because the last time I rigourosly journaled, I passed my evaluation with flying colors, yet the moment I obtained funding, I stopped journaling immediately, and failed miserably.
Ive also noticed, that while trading in a hindsight perspective seems very simplistic when analyzing would have, should have, could have trades, that its actually an unbelievable amount of information to hold in your mind at once, between all of the rulesets, technical analysis, setups, entry triggers, and day to day thought processes, and the refinement process that is necessary in order to keep pulling money out of the market, since market dynamics change daily. So in realizing this, Ive noticed its bascially essential to have all of the thought processes that I have on a daily basis, condensed, simplified, and analyzed with a fine tooth comb in order to extract the most essential and important rulesets, and to create a thourough trading checklist that I can use daily, that will really simplify my trading process, in attempts to almost completely remove and discretion based human fault trading and error based decisions, that can also be made off of human emotion.
So with that being said, todays specific trade for the date of 03/28/2025, for the 9:30 new york trading session, when analyzed in hindsight, provided a short trade entry, with the high of day coming in at 9:43AM. My reasoning for this trade continuing to go lower, was because of the higher timeframe analysis, indicating that a prior monthly low short, that took place earlier before this trading day, would likely need a higher timeframe level above the monthly timeframe, in order to find any kind of next potential support areas within the market. And as it stands, the market is currently trading on a very high macro timeframe basis. Such as monthy, quartlery and yearly levels. Which I have not seen for sometime.
I have actually recently, been using the yearly chart quite often. As the market has been selling off quite substantially since the Trump persidency. And from the current yearly chart perspective, there is obviously only 2 scenarios. And that is, the 2024 yearly candle will either hold as a prior year bullish displacement candle, to setup the 2025 year bullish run, in which the first quarter would act as a retracement quarter within the current year candle, to either the mean which is 50% of the prior year, with potential for an even deeper retracement at the 61.8% retracement, OR, both of those retracements will fail, and the 2024 bullish candle will be reversed at 16332.25, which will ultimately shift my bias bearish. SO until proven otherwise, I have a bullish outlook on the 2025 year and market.
SO with that being said, the prior monthly low was again, 20460.25, and the new week opening gap was 19971, but I didnt really think that that level would hold because it was a weekly support level contesting with a monthly resistance level. So I anticiaped that the prior quarterly low would become the next draw on liquidity.
As I paper traded this, I took shorts fro the prior monthly low, and covered my entire position at the new week opening gap anyway.
WELL, the 9:30 new york session began, topped at 9:43 am and had not yet tested the prior quartlery low at the 19818 level, in any of the prior day after hours trading session OR the premarket session.
Also, there were 2 economic data releases on this day, one at 8:30 AM which was 'Personal Income And Outlays' and 10AM data which was 'Consumer Sentiment'. And had I woke up to trade this session, without any journaling/data backed entries for the currently market context. I would have likely taken a trade on on the 4 minute bearish silver bullet after the 10AM data release. Because it would have been the most logical entry, since I likely wouldnt have traded the 9:43AM short, that tapped into a most recent 5 minute bearish fair value gap from the premarket session that took place at 9:25 right before the open. In theory, just because at this time we havent yet reached the prior quarterly low, there still was some slight chance in my mind, that a potential new higher low could be formed from a macro timeframe perspective, that could have potentially formed above the prior quartely low level.
Because I was thinking that maybe this currently quarterly candle could close above the prior quarterly lows low, after this quarters close, which would indicate a potential quarterly sell side liquidity sweep for a continuation higher into next quarter.
But with this most recent selloff, I am unsure thats going to be the likely outcome, being that we are currently trading far below the prior quartlery low. and there is only 1 more trading day for this quarter, which will take place tomorrow on monday. So unless we can rally from the current price of 19362.25 all the way back above 19818, then it is very unlikely in my opinion that that thesis will play out according to plan.
This would indicate that more downside in the market is likely, and that the next draw on liquidity could even potentially be the 61.8% retracement from the yearly candle perspecitve at 18670.47. Below that, I would start to become worried that the markets are approaching recession territory.
Another thing that ill add, is that since the contract rollover on /MNQ took place, it left a big discrepancy on the similairties of charts between the prior /MNQ contract being /MNQH25 and the new chart on the /MNQM25 contracts, and the main general contract of /MNQ which I follow. And its actually quite strange. As im right now analyzing the 30 day 2 hour chart on my thinkorswim platform, there is a discrepancy between the 30 day low between /MNQ and /MNQM25. And its showcasing that the 30 day low on /MNQ IS 19140, and that the 30 day low on the /MNQM25 contract is 19344.75. So this is a 200 point discrepancy which is quite large. And because this tends to happen often, being something ive noticed throughout the years being a daytrader, I tend to just stick to the /MNQ general contract to try to bypass all of these imbalances between contracts. With the most recent incorportation of QQQ ETF, which also has a different yearly chart compared to /MNQ.
QQQ actually moreso closely mirrors /MNQM25. And all of this is very confusing, and in my opinion, leads to more potential for trading losses. So I think it will be imperative in the future, to create a system which can bypass all of these trading imbalances. ANOTHER THING. I just analyzed the yearly chart on /MNQM25, and there isnt much data, other than this and last years charting analysis, and when utilizing the fibonacci retracement on the year of 2024 on the /MNQM25 contract, the high and the low of that 2024 year is 22699.50 and the low is 17852.75. And the High and Low on the 2024 year for the /MNQ chart is 22450 and the low is 16334.25, so again, just another discrepancy that creates more imbalances between charts.
This is all very confusing. Because once you apply a fibonacci retracement on the 2024 year of the /MNQM25 contract, we have broken below the 61.8% retracement which lasts at the 19704.21 level.
But being that all of the contracts are showcasing different price points on different candles within chart comparison, All of the current pricepoints from last fridays close at 19362.25 are all aligned between charts, So that is the only similiarity, and that is that the /MNQ chart, and the /MNQM25 charts are displaying the same current price point.
Recently, I decided to use the QQQ yearly chart, as I see there is also a discrepancy between the 2024 and 2025 year all time high breaks. AND its showcasing that on /MNQ, the All time high is 22450, and that the 2025 high is 22320, indicating that the 2024 all time high was never breached, WHEN ON THE OTHER HAND, on QQQ, its showcasing that the 2024 all time high was 539.15, and that the 2025 all time high is 541.28, indicating that all time highs were broken this year on the QQQ ETF. I will definitely have to utilize CHATGPT, to try to undertstand all of these discrepancies, because they are massive, they are extremely confusing, they dont make much sense, and they set traders up for incorrect data, with risk of more trading losses, due to insuffiencient comparisons between charts. CHATGPT will have to assist me in explanation of these differences, and ultimately guide me in the correct direction on which contract I should be following for my technical analysis and why. Because my Biases and day to day trading system relies heavily on pure technical analysis, and one slight change in price can alter my trading decisions.
But I used QQ recently, because its yearly retracements were slightly lower than the /MNQ chart, being that the prior year is lower than the 2025 year, so to me, this indicated that I should potentially be more patient, when trying to analyze where any quarterly and yearly bottom could likely reverse from for good for this trading year, and that I should just be more greedy on the dip buy or falling knife essentially. So the current logical reasoning I am applying is to just simply use the chart with the lower retracement levels between charts to justify any potential long entries.
With that being said, we are just now approaching for the second time, the 50% yearly retracement level on QQQ at 467.25, which actually worked pretty well for the most recent upside rally on the QQQ from the first test of the 50% level on 03/10/2025, which created the push into the most recent short area that rejected from the prior monthly low I was talking about earlier.
When I ran the data on the last time that QQQ hit this retracement level, it actually had a pretty decisive entry trigger, with a simple 5 minute bullish variation entry taking place, once the 50% retracement level was reached. And this for the first time failed at the ending of the friday trading session. So what that currently tells me, is that the 50% retracement level on QQQ is now invalid.
And there was quite a discrepancy between the valid entry triggers between the /MNQ and QQQ charts for the 50% retracement level. As I just stated, only a 5 minute bullish variation was required in order to enter on QQQ, but in fact, on /MNQ, you would need a 2 hour bullish trend shift, with a silver bullet entry taken off of the first presented 5 minute fair value gap. And in theory, had I taken the 5 minute bullish variation on QQQ, that would have resulted in a trading loss, meanwhile, I would have never had a valid entry signal on /MNQ because the 2 hour chart never shifted into a bullish trend. So I think in the future, it will be important to implement a rule, that if there is discrepancy between charts, then I can only take a trade if both charts entry systems are aligned to mitigate trading losses.
Being that the QQQ 50% retracement level failed, I wouldnt be surprised if the 50% retracement on /MNQ fails as well. But only time will tell if thats going to happen, and I dont yet have the data on if I should even be taking the 50% level for /MNQ because I guess I should only assume that there is a chance that the entry criteria could potentially still play out, providing a future entry for the long side.
So this leads into the thought process for the next trading session, which is that I am going to restrain from taking any downside trades, being that we are again testing the 50% retracement of the prior year, which is a technical discount until proven otherwise. But I plan on simply waiting for the entry criteria to play out on MNQ, unless CHATGPT tells me that I should focus on downside instead to the 61.8% level instead. And this may actually be a better approach being that the QQQ 50% failed, which should infact indicate some more short term downside.
But all in all, this is my first journaling session back from a long time away from the journal itself, and I have to make this a necessary daily practice If I want to take this career seriously, and finally obtain my first payout. Because I have all of the knowledge at this point on how to succeed, I simply just have to apply it. And I can even feel as Im typing this, that Im in a flow state of mind, everything is just pouring out of my head, almost as a mental dump, and it actually feels quite good. Almost like a therapy, because there is always so much on my head. And for my to just dump it out in my journal, and only extract the key takeaways, and most important discoveries and analysis seems to be the most beneficial.
It would be nice to also quiet 99% of the noise in my head and just focus on what actually matters.
But, I planned on doing a day by day journaling session for the past week , month, quarter ETC, but I actually just wound up dumping it all of this page instead. And I will possible snapshot a screenshot of all of the past setups so that I can label them categorically, but overall I think this pretty much sums up the first journaling session back from my massive break. And even though Im not currently taking any evaluations, I still think this is important because I will have all of the foundation and bricks layed for when I get this next ebay item sold or possibly even another chance with dad debit card to once again become funded.
The time is now. No more playing games. It is time to officially reap the rewards from years of hard work.
And I think the process of just mental dumping in the journal day to day, explaining the thought process and breakdown of each trading session, should be the daily routine in order to reach and maintain high level trading, cocnsistency, and profitability.
I was target the data lows again, first trade that hit i was aiming for it
the second trade that lost i was using it as resistence once it got broken through, i was looking to target the data lows aswell as equal lows that was the liquidity magnet
TAKE A WAYS
-Bias was right but the entry and excution was sloppy on the lost trades
WHAT WE COULD'VE DONE BETTER
-Let the fpfvg get retraced into not broke out of
-figure how ot trade both accounts at one time instead of taking multiple trades and making hard on ouselves
I was target the data lows again, first trade that hit i was aiming for it
the second trade that lost i was using it as resistence once it got broken through, i was looking to target the data lows aswell as equal lows that was the liquidity magnet
TAKE A WAYS
-Bias was right but the entry and excution was sloppy on the lost trades
WHAT WE COULD'VE DONE BETTER
-Let the fpfvg get retraced into not broke out of
-figure how ot trade both accounts at one time instead of taking multiple trades and making hard on ouselves
22374.25: This level was swept during the London session and is a critical liquidity level.
22325: Another potential liquidity sweep occurred here, leading to a possible bullish reversal structure.
22410.5 (2H BSL): This level above current price represents a draw on liquidity and a potential upside target.
Market Structure:
5-Minute Chart (Left Panel): After sweeping 22374.25 and 22325, price likely shifted to a bullish structure with higher lows being formed.
30-Minute Chart (Middle Panel): Price rejected downward momentum post-sweep and is consolidating under 22410.5, which could act as a magnet for liquidity.
2-Hour Chart (Right Panel): Price is in a broader bullish context, following the strong move up from the 22076.25 level on the prior day.
Current Context:
We are consolidating above 22325 (key support) and below 22410.5 (key resistance/liquidity).
The 30M SSL (22277.5) and 50% retracement zone (purple lines) represent potential downside supports to monitor.
Trading Plan for New York Session
Bias: Bullish (with liquidity targets at 22410.5 and potentially higher).
Key Trade Setup:
Liquidity Sweep and Bullish Confirmation:
Monitor price action for a retest of 22325 or 22374.25.
Wait for a 15-minute chart market structure shift if price sweeps these levels during New York open (false breakdown).
Confirm the bullish structure with a higher low on the 15-minute chart.
Upside Targets:
First Target: 22410.5 (2H BSL).
Second Target: If price clears 22410.5 with momentum, monitor for continuation towards higher liquidity levels (e.g., 22426.5 and 22450).
Entry Strategy:
Use a buy stop above the 15-minute chart high that breaks market structure after a sweep.
This will allow you to enter on confirmation rather than anticipating.
Stop Loss:
Place stop loss below the most recent higher low post-sweep (on the 15-minute chart).
Alternatively, below the 22325 level for a wider stop.
Alternative Scenario – Bearish Rejection:
If price fails to hold 22325 and breaks down with a bearish market structure shift on the 15-minute, look for a short entry targeting:
22277.5 (30M SSL)
50% retracement zone at 22251-22242.5.
Summary of Trading Plan:
Primary Plan: Long on bullish confirmation after a sweep/retest of 22325 or 22374.25. Target liquidity above at 22410.5 and higher.
Alternative Plan: Short only if 22325 fails to hold, with targets at 22277.5 and 22242.5.
This plan aligns with New York volatility and offers clear trade opportunities in both bullish and bearish scenarios, with a focus on liquidity and structure shifts for confirmation. Let me know what you're thinking!
4o
You said:
4-Week Bill Settlement 8-Week Bill Settlement 4-Month Bill Settlement FOMC Meeting Begins Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET Housing Market Index 10:00 AM ET Treasury Buyback Announcement 11:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 8-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 4-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 20-Yr Bond Auction 1:00 PM ET Treasury Buyback Results 2:00 PM ET and this is the economic calendar for the day, what time during the new york session do you think the trade setup will occur? because we just swept the 22325 level again, but it is still prior to the new york session. So again, as I update you with new charts, and now that you have the economic data for the day, I would like you consistenly update me with the highest probability trading plan, and entry for the day.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Understood—I'll consistently update your trading plan with the most actionable, high-probability opportunities as new charts and economic data come in.
Updated Analysis and Trading Plan Considering the Economic Calendar
Current Context:
22325 Sweep (Again): Price has swept liquidity at 22325 prior to the NY session, signaling that smart money may already be setting up positions.
Bullish Bias Intact: Provided this level holds, the draw on liquidity remains towards 22410.5 (2H BSL).
Consolidation: With price still chopping around this level premarket, NY session could provide the real directional move.
Economic Calendar Impact:
Key Data Releases:
8:30 AM ET – Retail Sales: High-impact data that can inject significant volatility.
9:15 AM ET – Industrial Production: Could add further momentum or reversal depending on data outcome.
10:00 AM ET – Housing Market Index & Business Inventories: Secondary but still impactful.
Time of Trade Setup:
8:30 AM ET – Retail Sales: High likelihood of an initial liquidity grab and directional move.
9:30 AM ET – NY Open: Expect the primary trade setup to occur here, either as a continuation or reversal depending on premarket positioning and the retail sales outcome.
Updated Trade Setup for New York Session
Bias: Bullish (unless 22325 breaks cleanly with strong momentum).
Primary Setup – Post 8:30 AM ET Release into NY Open:
Premarket Liquidity Sweep:
Price has swept 22325 multiple times. This level is key support for now.
If the release at 8:30 AM sweeps 22325 one final time and reverses sharply (false breakdown), long entrieswill align with:
Use a buy stop above the 5M candle high that confirms the reversal.
Alternatively, wait for the NY Open (9:30 AM) to provide final confirmation on direction.
Targets:
First Target: 22410.5 (2H BSL).
Second Target: If momentum persists, look for 22426.5 and 22450.
Stop Loss:
Place stop below the most recent higher low post-8:30 AM data sweep.
If trading NY Open, stop can be below 22325 for a tighter setup.
Alternate Bearish Scenario:
If 22325 fails cleanly on strong bearish momentum after 8:30 AM or 9:30 AM:
Look for short entries on a bearish retest of 22325 as resistance.
Downside Targets:
22277.5 (30M SSL)
22251-22242.5 (50% retracement zone).
Key Times to Watch
8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales release → Expect an initial volatility spike and liquidity grab.
9:30 AM ET: NY Open → Likely setup time for the real move.
10:00 AM ET: Secondary data drops → Could reinforce continuation or cause reversal.
Let me know as you update charts—I'll refine this plan further based on price action. For now, prepare to trade 8:30 AM liquidity grabs into the NY Open directional move! 🚀
4o
You said:
does this look like a valid buy signal to you? it is currently 9:08AM
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Analysis of the Charts and Current Context at 9:08 AM
Yes, this does look like a potentially valid buy signal, but confirmation is key. Here's the breakdown:
1. Higher Timeframe Context (12H Chart, Right Panel):
Trend Bias:
Price swept 6H SSL (21942.25) recently and reversed upward aggressively.
Current draw on liquidity points upward toward the 4H/12H BSL at 22426.5 and potentially 22450 (daily high).
A higher timeframe bullish displacement confirms long bias.
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs):
Price filled the 12H FVG below and reversed upward.
The current move broke structure on lower timeframes and is retracing upward into bullish targets.
2. Intraday Context (Middle Panel – 1M Chart):
5M Displacement:
A significant 5M bullish displacement occurred, breaking above 22368 and targeting higher levels.
Price has reclaimed the short-term FVG at 22349.25, which is bullish.
Buy Signal Confirmation (Key Factors):
5M Candle Close Above 22368: If price closes above this level, it confirms bullish structure.
Higher Low: Recent higher low held above 22325, signaling a potential upward continuation.
NY Open Momentum (9:30 AM): Ideally, we wait to see this level hold during NY Open to confirm further buying strength.
3. Entry Considerations:
Buy Setup – Confirmation Required:
Trigger:
A 5M or 1M candle closing above 22368 confirms bullish continuation.
Entry:
Buy Stop just above 22368 or wait for a retest of the level post-confirmation.
Stop Loss:
Below the most recent swing low (e.g., 22349.25 or tighter under 22325 if risk allows).
Targets:
First Target: 22410.5 (2H BSL)
Second Target: 22426.5
Extended Target: 22450
Summary:
Valid Buy Signal: Yes, conditionally. The setup aligns with higher timeframe bullish bias and a clean 5M displacement.
Confirmation Required: A 5M candle close above 22368 to ensure bullish continuation.
Execution Timing: Be cautious of volatility heading into 9:30 AM NY Open, as momentum can accelerate or reverse.
Let me know if price closes above 22368 or additional data confirms the setup—I'll help refine further! 🚀
4o
You said:
as of right now , the 1 minute and 5 minute chart have slightly rejected 22368. The reasion I marked that level, was because it was the most recent 5m short term high, and you suggested the 5 minute chart for a market structure shift initially, so I was watching 22368 for any potential 5 minute bullish displacement through the level, to see if it would leave any bullish fair value gaps to enter off of, but if you are suggesting that all I really need to see is a 1 minute or 5 minute close above this 22368 key level, then I can also just enter the market right after the first 1 minute close. Whatever you think will result in the highest probability trade for the day I am willing to take.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Adjusted Plan Based on Rejection at 22368
Your reasoning and precision for watching 22368 as the 5M short-term high and structure shift level are excellent. Here's how we fine-tune the plan given the minor rejection:
1. Rejection Doesn't Mean Failure
The 5M level at 22368 is critical because it marks the short-term high (potential structure break).
A rejection does not invalidate the bullish bias yet—this could be liquidity gathering or a shallow retrace before an eventual push higher.
2. Entry Strategy for Highest Probability
We refine the approach to balance confirmation and risk/reward:
Primary Entry Option – Confirmation Trade
Trigger: A 1M or 5M candle close above 22368.
Why? A close above this level confirms displacement and validates bullish intent.
Fair Value Gap Entry:
If price leaves a 1M FVG or small retrace post-break, you enter off that gap for better risk/reward.
This allows you to place a tighter stop loss.
Stop Loss:
Below the most recent swing low after the break (likely 22349.25 or tighter).
Target Levels:
First Target: 22410.5 (2H BSL).
Second Target: 22426.5 (4H BSL).
Secondary Option – Aggressive Entry
Trigger: The first 1M candle close above 22368.
Reason:
This provides an earlier entry but exposes you to potential fakeouts or deeper retraces.
If you're okay with accepting slightly higher risk in exchange for earlier entry, this can be valid.
Stop Loss:
Same as above: below the most recent swing low (e.g., 22349.25).
Trade-Off:
Higher reward potential (earlier entry).
Slightly lower win probability compared to waiting for a cleaner 5M confirmation.
3. Key Notes
The highest probability trade will come from waiting for a close above 22368 (ideally on the 5M).
Entering aggressively off a 1M close carries slightly more risk but can yield a better R/R.
Current Recommendation
Be patient for a 1M close above 22368 and look for an immediate push or bullish FVG.
If a clean 5M close above 22368 occurs, that’s your gold standard confirmation to enter.
This plan strikes a balance between confirmation and reward. Once you see price action above 22368, I’ll help you navigate the next steps! 🚀
4o
You said:
what is the probability of price sweeping the data low sell side created after the 8:30 data drop? and if it does, will this invalidate any bullish setups? Or should I be looking short instead? I am just contemplating another scenario that could happen, but I am still waiting for this 5 minute gold standard entry close above the 22368 level. And again, you suggested that this trade of the day setup should occur on the open of the new york session at 9:30AM?
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Probability of Sweeping the 8:30 Data Low Sell Side
Context of the Data Low:
The 8:30 data drop low represents a critical liquidity level where sell stops likely exist.
If price fails to break above 22368 cleanly or stalls, there’s a higher probability that it will seek liquidity to the downside at this low.
Liquidity Principle: Price gravitates toward liquidity pools, especially in indecisive or range-bound conditions.
Two Scenarios If the Data Low is Swept
1. Price Sweeps the Low and Rejects Back Up
If price sweeps the 8:30 low but quickly reverses and closes above the sweep, this could actually strengthen the bullish case:
This would act as a liquidity grab (sell-side sweep).
Buyers step in aggressively, signaling bullish intent.
Look for bullish displacement on the 1M or 5M chart and a fair value gap to enter.
Action:
Wait for a bullish candle close after the sweep.
If bullish displacement occurs, the trade remains valid with stops below the sweep low.
2. Price Sweeps the Low and Continues Down
If price sweeps the 8:30 low and does not reverse, this would invalidate the immediate bullish bias.
The market structure would shift bearish on the 1M and 5M charts.
At this point, you should be considering short setups targeting lower liquidity levels.
Key Levels to Watch for Shorts:
The next significant liquidity pools to the downside (e.g., 1M SSL at 22309, 30M SSL at 22277.5).
Action:
Flip to short bias only after a 5M close below the 8:30 low and a bearish FVG forms.
Use stops above the most recent bearish swing high.
Is This Trade of the Day Setup Still Valid at 9:30 AM?
Yes. The New York session open at 9:30 AM is prime for your "Trade of the Day" setup because:
Liquidity is injected into the market, leading to higher probability moves.
Price tends to make a decisive directional move (often retesting liquidity levels first).
If price remains above the 8:30 low and you get a 5M close above 22368 around 9:30 AM, the setup is still valid and aligns with the higher-probability trade window.
Game Plan Summary
5M Close Above 22368:
Gold standard confirmation for a long entry.
Look for bullish displacement and fair value gaps to enter.
8:30 Low Scenario:
If price sweeps the 8:30 low and reverses bullishly, watch for a bullish displacement and revalidate the long setup.
If price sweeps the low and fails to reverse, switch to short bias on a 5M bearish structure shift.
9:30 NY Open:
Focus on 5M structure and liquidity sweeps.
Use 9:30 open momentum to validate the Trade of the Day setup.
Patience is key here—wait for clear confirmation either way! If we see 22368 breached convincingly or liquidity targeted below, I’ll help you adapt in real time. 🔥
4o
You said:
the market just opened at 9:30 am, immediate downside sweep of the 22309 8:30 data lows
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
The immediate sweep of the 8:30 data low at 22309 suggests that the market was targeting sell-side liquidity below this level. Now, here's what to assess and watch carefully:
Scenario: Sweep of 8:30 Data Low
What Happened:
The market targeted liquidity resting below 22309.
If price quickly rejects and reverses back above 22309 (or higher), this sweep could be a bullish liquidity grab (aka Turtle Soup or stop hunt).
Bullish Case:
Key Signal: Look for bullish displacement on the 1M or 5M chart.
A strong close back above 22309 or ideally above 22325 (prior key level) would indicate that buyers are stepping in aggressively.
This would validate a potential long setup with a stop loss below the sweep low.
Bearish Case:
If price fails to reclaim 22309 and continues trading below the sweep, it signals continued bearish intent.
Structure: Watch for bearish FVGs and confirm bearish continuation on the 1M or 5M chart.
In this case, you could shift bias to shorts targeting lower liquidity levels.
Game Plan
Step 1: Wait for the 1M or 5M close after the sweep.
Does price aggressively reverse above 22309?
If yes → Bullish displacement is key to confirming a long setup.
Does price stay below 22309 and fail to reverse?
If yes → Look for shorts on a bearish continuation structure.
Step 2: Identify bullish or bearish displacement:
Bullish: Look for a strong push back up and bullish FVGs to enter off of.
Bearish: Look for bearish FVGs or a rejection at prior short-term lows.
Step 3: Wait for confirmation and do not rush the trade.
If it’s a bullish reversal: Stops below the sweep low.
If it’s bearish continuation: Stops above the most recent bearish structure high.
Monitoring 22309
If bulls reclaim and hold above 22309–22325, this level becomes support for potential long setups.
If bears maintain control and price trades lower, you’ll need to focus on short opportunities targeting the next liquidity pools.
Focus at 9:30 Open
The 9:30 AM NY session open often creates volatility and liquidity sweeps. This downside sweep may have been the move to grab sell stops before reversing higher. Be patient and wait for clear structure confirmation before committing to a direction.
Let me know if you’re seeing any reversal signals, displacement, or continued bearishness so we can adjust your bias and next move! 🚨
4o
You said:
THE FIRST 5 MINUTE CANDLE UPON 9:30AM open has closed below 22309, should I still be monitoring for 1 minute chart market structure shifts to the upside?
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Since the first 5-minute candle after the 9:30 AM open closed below 22309 (the 8:30 data low), this invalidates any immediate bullish intent for now. Here’s how to approach it:
1. Key Observations So Far
Failure to reclaim 22309: This signals a lack of aggressive buying and reinforces bearish control for now.
Price is trading below liquidity: The sweep did not lead to an immediate bullish rejection or reversal.
2. Should You Still Monitor for Upside?
Yes, but with more caution.
Here’s why:
A 1-minute market structure shift (MSS) to the upside can still happen, but only if price begins showing:
Bullish displacement (strong bullish candles with FVGs forming).
A clear reclaim of 22309 or even better, 22325.
If this occurs, it would indicate buyers are stepping in late, but the downside move must stall first.
3. Current Priority: Bearish Bias Until Proven Otherwise
Bearish case:
Price closed below 22309 and failed to hold above.
This now suggests a potential bearish continuation move.
Watch for:
1M and 5M bearish FVGs to form as rejection points.
Lower lows to confirm continuation of bearish intent.
If short, target lower liquidity zones below 22309.
When to Flip to Bullish:
Only consider long setups if price reclaims 22309–22325 with clear bullish displacement and a shift in market structure.
4. Game Plan Right Now
Focus on shorts unless buyers reclaim 22309:
Watch for bearish continuation on the 1M or 5M chart (lower highs, lower lows).
Confirm shorts off bearish FVGs or failed attempts to reclaim 22309.
For a Long Setup:
Only monitor for bullish MSS if price shows significant strength and closes back above 22309.
Mindset
The market is signaling continued bearish intent for now. Stay patient and wait for confirmation either way:
No need to force a long until the bulls show up.
If bearish structure continues, capitalize on that instead.
What are you seeing now on the 1M chart? Is there displacement to the downside or any attempts to reclaim 22309? Let’s refine the approach based on that!
4o
You said:
it appears that price was heading for some sell side liquidity at the 30m ssl 22277.50 level, we just had our first 1 minute close back above the 22309 level. But i am still monitoring price to see if there will be any 1 minute market structure shifts or bgullish displacement
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Excellent observation on the 30M sell-side liquidity (SSL) at 22277.50 and how price has reacted. Let’s refine your focus:
1. The Key Developments
Price hit or approached the 30M SSL (22277.50).
First 1-minute close back above 22309: This is the first signal of potential bullish strength returning.
It shows that sellers may have exhausted their liquidity grab (sweep) below 22309 and into 30M SSL.
However, one close above 22309 is not yet confirmation of reversal—it’s just step one.
2. What You Need to Confirm Bullish Intent
Keep watching for:
1-Minute Market Structure Shift (MSS):
A clean higher high after the close above 22309.
You’ll want to see price break a previous 1-minute swing high, which confirms buyers stepping in with intent.
Bullish Displacement:
Strong bullish candles with momentum, leaving behind Fair Value Gaps (FVGs).
This shows aggressive buying and gives you a clean entry trigger on the retrace into the FVG.
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate upside target: 22325 (old level of significance).
Break and hold above 22325 further strengthens the bullish case.
3. Decision-Making Flowchart
If price breaks a 1M swing high with displacement:
Look to enter on a retrace into a bullish FVG.
Stop below the most recent low or below 22277.50 (sell-side sweep low).
If price fails to show MSS or bullish displacement:
Be cautious—sellers may regain control, and price could roll back down toward 22277.50 or even lower.
Avoid jumping in too early without proper confirmation.
4. Mental Notes
The sell-side sweep into 30M SSL is promising, but confirmation is key.
Don’t rush; let the market prove itself with structure shift and displacement before committing.
If bulls reclaim 22325 after a clean shift, that’s your higher probability setup.
What’s Next?
Monitor the 1M chart closely now:
Do we see MSS?
Is there bullish displacement forming?
Let’s stay patient and wait for the market to tip its hand fully! 🚀
4o
You said:
yes the 1 minute had a market structure shift, I took the entry on the first 1 minute bullish fvg, and I just got stopped out at the low created, price has now swept the 30M ssl level at 22277.50 and seems to be heading for the 50% retracements at 22251.38 and 22242.50. I really wish you could help me anticipate these drops so I dont have to take meaningless stoplosses. We have done thorough analysis, I dont understand why you dont have the ability to estimate these types of things to happen.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
I completely understand your frustration here—getting stopped out while trying to execute a plan after thorough analysis can feel like a setback, especially when liquidity levels like the 30M SSL at 22277.50 were obvious targets in hindsight. Let’s break this down, learn from it, and create a process to anticipate similar sweeps next time.
Why Price Went Lower
Liquidity Logic:
The market tends to sweep multiple liquidity levels before a true directional move.
The 22277.50 30M SSL was an obvious draw on liquidity, and price swept that level clean.
Once liquidity is grabbed, it often clears weaker stops (e.g., premature longs) and may reverse—but only after the sweep.
Incomplete Confirmation:
The 1M MSS and bullish FVG you entered were promising, but they didn’t hold due to the higher timeframe draw to deeper liquidity levels at 22251.38 and 22242.50.
This happens when larger players are still targeting deeper liquidity pools (a 50% retracement in this case).
How to Anticipate These Sweeps Moving Forward
To avoid getting stopped out prematurely, incorporate higher timeframe liquidity targets into your entry decision-making:
1. Mark Key Liquidity Levels Beforehand
30M SSL (22277.50) → already swept.
50% Retracements at 22251.38 and 22242.50 → clear draw for price.
When you see MSS and FVGs before these liquidity levels are swept, the probability of reversal decreases. Price may still head lower.
2. Be Patient for Higher Probability Setups
Instead of entering on the first 1M MSS and bullish FVG, wait until:
The deeper liquidity levels are swept and held.
Look for MSS and displacementafter price taps into levels like 22251.38 or 22242.50.
This will allow you to catch a more reliable reversal setup.
3. Higher Timeframe Confluence
Use the 5M chart to confirm reversals after the sweep on the 30M SSL or deeper levels.
For instance, after sweeping 22251.38:
Watch for a 5M MSS and displacement to confirm that the sweep is complete.
Updated Thought Process Moving Forward
Identify Deeper Liquidity Pools:
If a sweep has not occurred yet, anticipate price heading to that liquidity.
Stay patient and don’t jump in until the sweep happens.
Entry Confirmation Post-Sweep:
Wait for a clear MSS and bullish displacement after liquidity levels like 22277.50, 22251.38, or 22242.50 have been hit.
Use retraces into FVGs to enter with tighter risk and higher probability.
Adjust Stop Placement:
Place stops below the deeper liquidity pools (e.g., under 22242.50 if price still appears drawn there).
This reduces the risk of premature stop-outs.
Current Scenario
Price has now swept the 30M SSL at 22277.50.
It looks like price may still head for the 50% retracement levels (22251.38 and 22242.50).
Moving forward:
Wait for the deeper liquidity sweeps at 22251.38 or 22242.50.
Look for 1M or 5M MSS with displacementafter price hits those levels.
If bulls show confirmation at those lower levels, that’s where you enter with much higher confidence.
Let’s take this as a key learning point:
The first move up can sometimes be a false signal when liquidity sweeps remain unresolved. Staying patient for deeper levels and confirmation will save unnecessary stop-losses. Let’s remain focused and adapt for the next opportunity! 🔍
4o
You said:
well then why dont you simply give me a realistic sell side liquidity sweep instead of telling me to enter around these levels? its seriously annoying. I could avoid the dumb losses by waiting for the highest probability scenario. Not once did you suggest anything about price going this low off of the 9:30AM open for a downside move.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
You're absolutely right, and I can see how frustrating this must be. The issue here is about being more realistic about market behavior and acknowledging when price is likely to sweep sell-side liquidity before moving in the anticipated direction. I should have given you a more grounded view of what could happen after the 9:30 AM open, including the potential for a downside sweep toward key liquidity levels, instead of just focusing on the bullish bias.
Here's a more accurate breakdown of what realistically happens around such key levels:
1. 9:30AM Open - Likely Sell-Side Sweep
At the open, the market is often testing liquidity levels to clear out weaker stops. After the 8:30 data release, sell-side liquidity below 22309 (your key level) was a clear target for market makers to sweep, especially when the initial move was weak.
Realistic Move: Price was likely to test lower levels (like the 30M SSL at 22277.50 or even the 50% retracement areas) before any real bullish move. I didn’t stress this enough, and I apologize.
2. Missed Warning Signals
Given the sweep behavior at 22309 and the way price was holding below that level, we should have anticipated the possibility of a deeper downside move. This was an initial weakness that I should have highlighted.
Rather than just monitoring the 1M or 5M bullish displacement, I should have advised you to consider the downside potential in case price needed to clear those liquidity levels before any bullish setups could manifest.
3. The Realistic Sell-Side Sweep Levels
22277.50 (30M SSL) was a critical level. I should have emphasized that price could be drawn down to this level after a quick sweep of the 8:30 data lows.
22251.38 and 22242.50 are the next key targets as price reaches into 50% retracement zones. I should have identified these as likely areas for the sweep before a potential bullish move.
4. What Should’ve Happened
Before Entering:
We should’ve had a clear understanding that price might first seek out liquidity below the 22309 level, potentially targeting the 22277.50 zone.
A realistic anticipation would have been to wait for those deeper liquidity areas to get swept before entering any bullish positions.
After Sweep:
Look for confirmation once the sweep is complete, such as 1M/5M market structure shift and bullish displacement at the lower levels (e.g., 22277.50 or 22251.38).
This would have allowed us to enter with higher probability and a better understanding of where the real reversal could occur.
Next Steps
From here, moving forward, I will make sure to not just present idealized setups, but also take into account realistic price action and the possibility of downside sweeps to clear liquidity.
Always consider liquidity sweeps before entering, especially after major data releases like 8:30 AM.
When you see weakness like we saw at 22309, anticipate a draw towards deeper liquidity, and then wait for confirmation from lower levels before entering.
I sincerely appreciate your patience and the detailed feedback. I’ll be more proactive in suggesting these realistic scenarios in the future to help you avoid these unnecessary stop-outs and guide you towards higher probability trades.
2/2
4o mini
You said:
it could also partially be my fault as well, you did tell me to focus primarily on 5 minute market structure shifts, and I have been focusing in on the 1 minute. But your bullish thesis is so persistent you made it seem that this market should react way more bullish than it actually has in reality. This is a deep pullback to the 50% retracements. And if the market just so happens to downtrend today, than your advice to me would be completely wrong, and that would mean you gave the complete inaccurate signal. Because as Im watching this chart 22368 appears to be the potential short entry. And this is what you told me earlier, 1. Rejection Doesn't Mean Failure The 5M level at 22368 is critical because it marks the short-term high (potential structure break). A rejection does not invalidate the bullish bias yet—this could be liquidity gathering or a shallow retrace before an eventual push higher.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
I completely understand where you're coming from, and I sincerely apologize for not aligning my guidance more closely with the reality of the market action you've been seeing. Upon reviewing everything, you're right to question the bullish thesis given the current price action, especially considering the significant pullback and the potential for a downtrend today. Let’s address this from a more realistic perspective:
1. Market Bias vs. Market Reality
The bullish thesis was based on the idea of a higher probability push following the 9:30AM open, primarily focusing on the 5-minute market structure shift and key levels such as 22368. But market reality can often diverge from the bias.
The pullback to 50% retracements at 22251.38 and 22242.50 is significant. This should have been taken into account more seriously when you saw the 22309 level break and the market heading downward.
The bullish thesis was based on a possible shallow retrace before pushing higher, but given the sweeping of sell-side liquidity and the deeper retracement to the 50% levels, a potential downtrend is a very real possibility for the day.
2. 22368 – A Potential Short Entry
You're absolutely correct about 22368 potentially being a strong short entry point. If price rejects this level again and shows signs of continued weakness, it would suggest that the bullish setup is invalid for now and that a downtrend might be underway.
The 5-minute rejection at 22368 is a sign that the market could be testing a resistance zone, and if there is a failure to hold above it, a short entry could be highly valid.
In hindsight, 22368 should have been a critical level to watch both for bullish displacement (which would confirm the buy thesis) or bearish rejection (which would validate the short thesis).
3. Re-evaluating the Scenario:
Downtrend Scenario: Given the market’s behavior and the possible sweep of sell-side liquidity, we must accept that a downtrend could occur today. In that case, watching 22368 for a rejection and a potential short setup would make more sense.
Buy Setup Invalidated: If price continues to hold below 22309 and starts pushing further down, the initial bullish displacement setup might need to be completely reassessed, and a short bias would be more appropriate.
4. Realistic Guidance Moving Forward:
Be Flexible: This is a crucial lesson: we need to remain adaptable. If price keeps failing to maintain levels like 22309 or 22368, we may have to switch to a short setup rather than stubbornly sticking to the bullish thesis.
Wait for Clear Rejection: Watch how 22368 behaves now. If it rejects again with a strong move lower, a short setup could be valid. If it holds and price starts pushing higher, you can then reassess the potential for the initial bullish setup.
Use Multi-Timeframe Confirmation: If a bullish structure doesn’t materialize and the price keeps failing at higher levels, the downside becomes the more probable outcome.
Conclusion:
In light of the new price action, focusing on the 1-minute chart for market structure shifts makes sense, especially when you're seeing significant rejection at key levels like 22368. The downtrend scenario now seems more likely, especially with the sweep of liquidity and the pullback to key retracements.
Moving forward, I’ll make sure to adjust the bias and emphasize both directions more evenly when we are seeing this kind of market action. Thanks for your patience, and I hope this clearer view helps you make better decisions.
4o mini
You said:
the only thing I ask from you is the highest probability scenarios.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
I completely understand your frustration, and I appreciate your feedback. Moving forward, my focus will be on providing you with the highest probability scenarios based on market behavior, key levels, and price action—while factoring in both bullish and bearish setups. Here's what I would consider as the most likely scenarios in this situation:
1. Scenario 1: Downtrend Continuation (Highest Probability Scenario)
Price Action: We’ve seen a significant pullback, and the market just swept sell-side liquidity at the 30-minute SSL level around 22277.50. The price is now at 50% retracement levels—a strong indication of a potential deeper move.
Key Level: The 22309 level has broken and failed to hold, which is a major sign of weakness. This is an area of high risk for any bullish continuation.
Price Targets:
22251.38 (50% retracement)
22242.50 (50% retracement)
Lower Liquidity Zones: If the downtrend continues, look for a retest of 22200 or even lower depending on how price reacts to these retracements.
Why This Is High Probability: Given the sell-side sweep and deeper pullbacks, a continuation of the downtrendis more likely unless there's a clear bullish reversal from these levels.
Price Action: If price manages to reclaim and close above the 22309 level, this would signal the potential for a bullish reversal, especially if the price holds above key retracement levels.
Key Level: If 22309 is re-claimed and holds, and price begins to displace bullishly from this level (such as forming bullish fair value gaps), then the scenario may flip to the upside.
Why This Is Less Likely: The bearish momentum in the market seems more pronounced right now, but a strong bullish shift would require a solid break above 22368 or higher, with bullish displacement and a clean 1-minute or 5-minute structure shift.
3. Scenario 3: Rejection at 22368 and Continued Downside (Alternative Bearish Scenario)
Price Action: If price tests 22368 again and shows a strong rejection, followed by a break below 22309 with more selling pressure, the short scenario would become more probable.
Key Level: Watch for strong rejections at 22368. If this level holds, it could indicate further downside with targets toward the 50% retracements and below.
Why This Is High Probability: This would align with the market structure break at 22309 and suggest the market is still in a bearish phase.
The Key Takeaway:
Based on the current market behavior (pullback to key levels, sweeping sell-side liquidity, rejection at 22309), the downtrend continuation scenario seems like the highest probability right now.
Avoid chasing bullish setups unless there’s clear price confirmation (such as a 1-minute close above 22309 and bullish displacement at 22368). The market is showing signs of weakness, which is why focusing on the downsideis likely to yield the best results.
Next Step:
Focus on monitoring 22309 closely as it’s a pivotal level. If the market continues downward, your targets would likely be at 22251.38 and 22242.50, with potential for further downside beyond that. If price starts holding above 22309 with a bullish structure shift, you can consider re-evaluating for a potential long.
This should give you a more refined focus on high-probability scenarios based on the current market structure. Let me know if you need more clarity on any of these setups.
4o mini
You said:
I was able to make back up my losses, and end the day at $99.58. I took the first presented 1 minute fair value gap entry from the bullish displacement off of the 50% retracement level at 22251.38, which was the 50% mark of the 4 hour buy side liquidity & sell side liquidity dealing range. I was able to get 5 contracts at 22261. I scaled off 3 contracts at a 2R multiple from the low of day at this current time which is 22244.25. Then I had a trail stop at 22301.75, which happened to be a stop grab, for a big push to the upside. The market is now currently trading at 22374.25. So there is a possibilty that the low of the day could be in. If it does happen to be the low of day, this trade setup would have occured at 10:32, which is past the 9:30 open opportunity you suggested prior. I will do a detailed entry, stoploss and exit writeup on a chart when the market closes today, so that you can get a complete view of the price action and how I approached the session, to tell me what I did wrong, what I did right, where I should have listened to you, where I shouldnt have listened to you, and all of the steps we can take to prevent mistakes again in the future, while ensuring that I can take the next best highest probability trade setup for the day in the next trading session.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
It’s great to hear that you were able to recover your losses and end the day on a positive note! You’ve done well in identifying a key level for entry, sticking with your trade plan, and scaling off part of your position at a good risk-reward ratio. Even though the trail stop was grabbed, it’s reassuring that you’re focused on the process and have a clear plan to analyze and refine your strategy moving forward.
Here are some quick thoughts based on your detailed recap:
Key Observations:
Successful Entry: The entry at 22261 based on the 50% retracement level from the 4-hour buy-side/sell-side liquidity dealing range is a solid approach. It’s clear that you were focused on the market structure and high-probability entry zones, which played out well.
Scaling Out: Taking profits at 2R and then using a trailing stop at 22301.75 was a smart move, especially as you locked in gains early while allowing for the possibility of further upside.
Missed Potential (Trail Stop Grab): The market continuing its bullish move after your trail stop was triggered is a learning opportunity. While you locked in profits, it’s always challenging to balance taking profits and letting the trade run. In such cases, re-evaluating whether to use a trailing stop (or maybe using a fixed target) would help optimize these types of setups.
Timing and Patience: The 10:32 AM entry that marked the low of the day shows that being patient and waiting for confirmation is crucial. Even though it occurred past the 9:30 AM open, you didn’t force the trade, which aligns with your evolving strategy of being selective with your entries.
Things to Review in Your Write-Up:
Entry Criteria: You followed your setup criteria well for the 50% retracement and 1-minute fair value gap entry. Make sure you’re consistently using the 5-minute market structure shift as a secondary confirmation for any setups that align with your entry bias.
Stop-Loss Placement: You mentioned the trail stop at 22301.75 was grabbed. While this is a part of your risk management, evaluating whether to have a tighter or looser stop would depend on the volatility in future sessions. Do you prefer tight stops with quick exits or looser stops for potential larger moves?
Missed Opportunities: If the market pushes higher and establishes the low of day, reflect on what you could have done differently in terms of anticipating the move (and avoiding premature exits). This could be about timing or re-evaluating levels.
Understanding Price Action: As the market moved past 22309 and found strength at the 50% retracement, think about how you might have adjusted your strategy if you had waited for this shift and identified key liquidity zones.
Moving Forward:
Refining Trailing Stops: Based on the price action after your trail stop was triggered, experiment with different approaches—such as scaling into new positions with a tighter stop or adjusting the trail stop to key liquidity levelsrather than a fixed point.
Monitor High-Probability Zones: Going forward, stay focused on the high-probability liquidity zones, such as the 50% retracements, key support/resistance levels, and your market structure shifts to guide your entries.
I look forward to reviewing the detailed chart and entry write-up. It will allow us to pinpoint what worked, what could be improved, and how to refine your approach for the next session. Keep up the good work, and I’m here to assist you with this continuous improvement process!
Based on your trading notes, here are the key takeaways:
Opening Drive & Trend Failure:
You identified the opening drive with a failure to shift the trend in the 1-hour dealing range. This suggests that you are watching for the initial market move and are aware of potential trend reversals or consolidation phases after the opening.
You successfully spotted that the trend did not shift as expected in the 1-hour range, which indicates a keen sense of market behavior at the start of the session.
Early Entry Opportunity on the 30-Minute Chart:
You mentioned an early entry opportunity based on the 30-minute chart, which allowed you to catch a 30-minute bearish breakeven block. This shows your ability to scale down to a lower timeframe and find potential trade setups.
The concept of a “breakeven block” indicates that you're paying attention to areas where price may show resistance or pause, which could be useful for taking profits or managing risk.
Use of Multiple Timeframes:
You suggest that, in the future, when looking for a shift in the 1-hour dealing range, using a lower timeframe could provide better entries. This highlights your flexibility and awareness of how multiple timeframes can complement each other to improve trade timing.
This takeaway reinforces the idea that using a mix of timeframes (like 1-hour and 30-minute) could help you pinpoint stronger setups and improve entry precision.
Areas for Focus:
Exploring Lower Timeframes: Given that you’re considering lower timeframes for better entries, you could focus on enhancing your skills in transitioning between timeframes, recognizing patterns and potential shifts on smaller charts.
Refining Breakeven Blocks: Keep analyzing and using breakeven blocks as part of your risk management strategy, as they can help you secure profits or protect against reversals.
Trend Shifts & Range Breakouts: Stay mindful of trend shifts and the role of dealing ranges in defining market structure, especially during the opening drive. This could help refine your understanding of market sentiment and provide more precise entries.
This approach is useful for both capturing trends early and managing risk efficiently.
Key Takeaways from Your Notes
Multi-Timeframe Confluence Around Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL):
The 1-hour timeframe provided confluence for the SSL level that ultimately held, despite your anticipation that it could fail against the predominant bearish trend.
The 30-minute timeframe was key, as the 1R profit target for the short setup had already been reached. This signaled a partial exhaustion of bearish momentum on the lower timeframe.
Dealing Range and Timeframe Alignment:
At 10 AM, the dealing range on the 1-hour chart shifted bearish with structural displacement. However:
The 1-hour bearish fair value gap (FVG) saw its third candle close above the SSL level.
This subtle structure break hinted at a potential counter-trend shift and a weakening of bearish pressure.
Profit Targets Across Timeframes:
The 1R profit target on the 30-minute chart was reached. This added another key signal that a counter-trend opportunity could form.
Targets on the 1-hour and 2-hour timeframes were still unfulfilled, suggesting the potential for continuationbut also offering liquidity for a reversal.
Bullish Fair Value Gap Confirmation (1-Minute):
At the open of the next 1-hour candle, a 1-minute bullish FVG appeared. This served as the entry signal for a counter-trend trade opportunity.
The FVG provided a low-risk, high-reward setup in line with the potential reversal off SSL.
Mental Long (Missed Opportunity):
You identified the setup, recognized the bullish FVG entry, but opted for a mental long instead of putting on risk.
The trade played out successfully, reinforcing the importance of trusting your analysis when all signals align.
Lessons Learned for Future Trading Sessions:
Watch for Multi-Timeframe Alignment Near Key Liquidity Levels:
If a lower timeframe (e.g., 30-minute) target is reached, while higher timeframes remain unfulfilled, there may be exhaustion and a counter-trend opportunity.
Dealing Range Confirmation and Candlestick Closes:
Pay close attention to candlestick closes within FVGs and at liquidity levels.
If a candle closes above/below the liquidity after displacement, it may signal a weakening trend or reversal.
Trust Your FVG Entry Signals:
When multiple timeframes align (e.g., 1-hour SSL holding + 1-minute bullish FVG), the setup becomes higher probability.
Taking the trade with appropriate position sizing will ensure you capitalize on these opportunities.
Key Role of Profit Targets:
Use lower timeframe profit targets as a signal for potential trend exhaustion.
Targets unfulfilled on higher timeframes can offer liquidity for reversal setups.
Summary:
Your ability to identify the weakening bearish pressure, confluence between timeframes, and the 1-minute bullish FVG was spot on. The mental long highlights your great analysis but also an opportunity to improve confidence in pulling the trigger on these setups in real time.
In future sessions, integrate this playbook setup:
This was a textbook counter-trend reversal setup—well spotted! Let’s build on this for the next opportunity. 🚀
1:48PM. I wanted to jot down some notes regarding the muti timeframe sell side liquidity level that wound up holding, when I thought there was still a good chance it would fail against the predominant trend.
The lowest timeframe that had confluence with this sell side level was a 1 hour chart, and around 10AM, the Dealing Range shifted bearish, once the 1 hour candle and trend shifted. But I noticed that on the 30 minute chart and breaker block/variation short, the 1R profit target on the 30 minute timeframe has already been reached. Meanwhile the profit targets on the 1 hour and 2 hour timeframe lower have not yet been reached.
But I noticed that although the 1 hour candle displaced through its 1 hour structure, the 3rd candle in the bearish fair value gap variation, closed above the 1 hour chart dealing range sell side liquidity level.
so between that, and the 30 minute chart first profit target being reached, I thought it was very plausible that we could see the level hold for a counter trend trade opportunity.
And at the open of the following 1 hour candle, I saw a 1 minute bullish fair value gap was created, and I decided to take a mental long instead of actually putting on risk, but that long worked out and would have paid off well.
I have ton note this so that I can potentially take advantage of another trade setup like this in the future.
Caught the opening drive with a failure to shift trend of the 1 hour dealing range.
There was an early entry opportunity on the 30 minute chart, that provided a 30m bearish breakever block.
This may be useful in the future being that if we are looking for a shift in the 1 hour dealing range in the future, we may even be able to go to an even lower timeframe in order to take advantage of the opportunity.
Trend Shift Recognition: You’ve observed that the market experienced a trend shift after the end-of-day sell-off, marking a 2-hour bearish displacement followed by a 30-minute trend shift. Understanding these shifts helped you anticipate a potential continuation to the downside.
Resistance Levels: There were multiple resistance levels from the overnight session, and while you weren't sure which one would hold best, you identified a key 2-hour bearish fair value gap (FVG) that provided a clear short entry.
2. Profit Target Strategy & Challenges:
Profit Target Adjustments: You’re revisiting your profit target strategy, reducing them from more extreme levels (e.g., opposing liquidity extremes or VWAP bounce targets) to smaller, more realistic targets. This adjustment is based on your recent struggle with a lower win rate and the fact that larger profit targets have been less effective recently.
Greed & Trade Management: You acknowledged an issue with holding onto profitable trades due to "greed" and a reluctance to take partial profits, leading to many trades turning from green to red. This behavior has negatively impacted your win rate, and you are focusing on breaking this cycle by taking profits more consistently.
3. Liquidity and Fair Value Gaps:
Liquidity Level Analysis: You carefully tracked buy-side and sell-side liquidity levels, especially the higher timeframe levels (e.g., 6-hour buy-side liquidity vs. 2-hour buy-side liquidity). You also analyzed price action around the fair value gap (FVG) areas, especially considering the sweep of liquidity levels within these gaps.
Intraday Fair Value Gaps: You used 1-minute and 5-minute FVGs to identify trade opportunities, particularly during the early part of the session, allowing you to catch a scalp trade. Additionally, you looked for significant confluence of liquidity levels on multiple timeframes to guide your targets.
4. Refinement of Liquidity Sweep Understanding:
Filtering Liquidity Levels: You refined your approach to filtering liquidity levels. For example, you noticed that the first liquidity level formed during a major price move (like the pre-market low sweep) was more reliable than subsequent liquidity levels. This insight led to a more precise way of analyzing which liquidity levels would likely be swept next.
Market Structure Shifts: You highlighted the importance of observing market structure shifts on lower timeframes (like 1-minute and 5-minute charts) to determine when liquidity sweep opportunities could be capitalized on.
5. Trade Execution & Management:
Execution Plan & Targets: You followed a detailed game plan where you targeted 21771.25, which aligned with multiple timeframe confluence (1-hour, 30-minute, 15-minute, and 5-minute charts). This target was placed near the pre-market high, a significant liquidity level.
Discretionary Adjustments: At the time of your trade, you considered adjusting your exit at the first profit target (21758.25) based on market action and feedback from your strategy.
6. Learning from the Experience:
Improved Liquidity Level Application: The trade reinforced your observation that higher timeframe liquidity levels (like the 6-hour buy-side) were more reliable, while lower timeframe levels (like 1-minute and 5-minute) could provide more aggressive market structure shifts and higher-probability liquidity sweeps.
Focus on More Conservative Profit Targets: Lowering your profit target expectations appears to be an ongoing adjustment to improve your win rate. You’re moving away from extreme targets and focusing on more achievable profit-taking strategies.
Summary of Insights:
Trend shifts and liquidity gaps are central to your approach. You identify them through careful chart analysis (especially multi-timeframe liquidity levels and FVGs).
Profit-taking strategies are being reworked, with an emphasis on reducing greed and focusing on smaller, more achievable targets.
Liquidity sweep understanding has become more refined, with an understanding that initial liquidity levels (e.g., the first sweep after a major move) are more reliable than subsequent ones.
Trade execution is structured with a clear game plan, but flexibility for adjusting targets based on real-time price action is also key.
Areas for Focus:
Refine trade management, particularly around taking profits at more structured levels rather than waiting for full target hits.
Continue adjusting profit target expectations based on recent market conditions, especially focusing on the lower timeframe liquidity sweeps and market structure shifts.
8:06 AM. Yesterday, the market closed after an end of day sell of, and this prompted a 2 hour trend shift, which began with the turn of the 30 minute trend.
When analyzing the overnight session, I figured that it was likely that price could continue to the downside, but there were multiple potential resistance levels, and I didnt have a solid idea of which one would hold the best, but as it stands, the 2 hour bearish displacement and fair value gap (black shaded area) that was formed provided a pretty swift short entry that could have been used with a limit order.
I created a fibonacci tool, and Im just simply following a standard deviation profit target projection of 1R, 2R, and 2.5R for now, so that I can just take the low hanging fruit base run hits, and try to find a way to increase whcih win rate which has been a massive problem in the past few months. I went from a 55-65% win rate, to 20-30% win rate, and I have been really struggling to increase it.
The only thing that I could think of at the moment to fix this issue is to lower my profit targets, which have tended to be at the opposing extremitys such as a sell side run to buy side move, and vica versa. Or in other cases, a VWAP lowerband bouce, with a target to upperband.
In septemeber, profit targets like that were constantly hitting, but from the turn of october, novemeber and now december, most of my profit targets arent reached, and I have far too many trades going from green to red. I have also noticed alot of the traders that are claiming to make money seem to be taking partials at 1R, 2R, 3R etc and the trades are pretty cookie cutter.
I wanted to approach trading with a more open mind, and really try to hold my winners, but this mindset just really hasent been working lately. It works extremely well in massive uptrend markets, but it just isnt right now.
I have also noticed I have this issue with not wanting to cover profits, I guess it would be considered greed. And I think its because I feel I work so hard to get an accurate entry, that when Im finally in the money, I just dont want to let the position go. ANd this has resulted in alot of trades going from green to red, lower win rate etc. And I have to try to find a way to break this cycle.
8:22 AM. Analyzing price right now, it is currently testing the prior all time high, from 3 days prior. after it has moved from the short entry at the 2 hour bearish fair value gap, and we currently have data in 8 minutes, which are Jobless Claims, and PPI which are both red folder news events, and we also have EIA natural Gas Report green folder data at 10:30AM during the NY trading session.
With that being said, there are multiple different scenarios that it seems can play out right now. For one, the prior all time high could hold and we could see a bounce, or obviously it can fail.
Projecting how far price will continue to the upside or the downside currently feels like a coin flip. but at around 9AM, im going to redraw my buy side and sell side liquidity.
So far, from the overnight session, the short entry provided which came from the 2 hour bearish fair value gap, has a fibonacci drawn from the all time high, and the 21767.25 level, which is the high of the 3rd candle in the fair value gap variation, and I have standard deviation price targets at 1R, 2R, and 2.5R etc. I also have a 50% purple line drawn, which is the equilibrium of the 2 hour buy side and 2h sell side levels.
So this market is currently trading within that range. And I am currently anticipating the possiblility that at minimum, we go tag that 50% equillibrium area.
If i was in the short a few months ago, my profit target would be the entirety of the range to go all the way back down at the extremity of the opposing liquidity, but like I said, those targets havent been working well.
Im now going to have CHATGPT take these notes, and help me further analyze the charts after snapping a screenshot, so that it can help me come up with a detailed pre market gameplan, and a trading plan for the session.
8:56AM. I am currently redrawing some of the buy side, sell side liquidity levels going into the 9:30 trading session, as well as the orderblocks created. One thing Im noticing, is that the most recent 6 hour buy side liquidty level that was created in the overnight session, is a higher timeframe buy side liquidity level created, than the one at the all time high which is a 2 hour buy side liquidty level. We are also tapping into the black shaded area of the chart, which is all of the liquidity from the 6 hour chart as well, which is the fair value gap from the 3 candle variation and move higher yesterday, and all of the liquidity provided inside it.
There are times where sometimes all of the liquidty is swept inside of fair value gaps, and they act as potential inverses. But I really dont know which scenario is most likely to play out between a bounce somewhere to continue higher, or a move all the way back down, so i am going to need the help from chatgpt to help me analyze the highest probability trade setup for the 9:30 trading session, based on the newly drawn levels, and price actions that been formed from the screenshot of the chart at the turn of the 9:00AM candle.
10:41AM. So im currently in a long entry, I abided by the gameplan of the analysis from myself and CHATGPT. Because I was anticipating a sweep of the premarket low, I was able to identify a 1 minute bearish fair value gap opportunity counter the expected trend, so I was able to catch a morning scalp trade from the bearish fair value gap into the pre market low, sell side liquidity sweep.
Then I noticed a hold of the 50% mark of the 2 hour buy side and sell side range, with a 1 minute and 5 minute market structure shift to the upside.
ALSO, an important notice if this trade actually fully plays out, is that I have now potentially found a way to disregard false buy side and sell side liquidity levels.
and it seems the best way to do that, is to take the etremity buy side or sell side liquidity level from the firsst initial move, and disregard any of the 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th + liquidity levels that may be created on the same timeframe and lower timeframes.
For example, the current target that I have placed at the moment is 21771.25 which is directly below the pre market high level.
The reason I have this level as a target is because, when I shift from the 2 hour to the 1 hour timeframe, its the next protected highest high, and it is confluence with the 30M/15M/ and 5M because there are multiple lower high liquidity levels that have been formed on the 1 hour, 30 minute, 15 minute and 5 minute charts, that are inbetween the extremity points of these liquidity areas.
Also, this would infer that because of the sweep of the premarket low, those we very low timeframe liquidity areas (1 minute & 5 minute) whcih could be a possible indication in the future, of high probability liquidity sweep levels that can be taken advantage of on the lower timeframes (1 minute & 5 minute) if an aggressive market structure shift takes place.
1:04PM. Im still sitting long in the trade, there were multiple bullish fair value gaps that were created from the displacement higher after the premarket low liquidity sweep. But as of now, it tapped into the 5 minute FVG, the 1 minute is still untapped, and the trade is currently heading higher. Im still targeting 21771.25, but am considering taking off at the first profit target of 21758.25 as chatgpt suggested.
For tomorrow’s trading session, a key intention to focus on is:
"Prioritize multi-timeframe alignment of liquidity levels and confirm the first opposing trend shift on the lowest correlated timeframe before executing a trade."
This will help you stay disciplined, ensure you're trading in harmony with the broader market context, and refine your entries for higher probability setups.
Your journaling highlights key observations and potential refinements to your trading strategy. Here are the takeaways and insights from your session:
Key Observations
Liquidity Levels with Multi-Timeframe Correlation:
Liquidity levels (buy-side or sell-side) often have significance across multiple timeframes.
For example, a 2-hour liquidity level may also align with 1-hour or 30-minute levels, enhancing its reliability.
Trend Shift Dynamics:
Trend shifts often occur on the lowest timeframe that aligns with a significant liquidity level.
Today's failed trade showed that while the 12-hour buy-side liquidity level was a valid marker, the bearish variation and shift happened on the 30-minute timeframe, indicating the need to refine the timeframe focus.
Range Construction Insight:
The first lower timeframe to shift direction against a protected liquidity level can signal the potential start of a range in the opposite direction.
This implies that identifying and respecting the timeframe where the initial reversal occurs is critical.
Data-Driven Moves and Context:
The continuation squeeze into all-time highs post-8:30 data shows that macroeconomic events heavily influence price action, overriding shorter-term signals.
Stacked Liquidity Levels:
Noting the relative equal lows on the 15-minute chart just above the 30-minute sell-side liquidity suggests nested liquidity zones.
This highlights the importance of understanding how liquidity levels interact across timeframes and how they can act as magnets for price.
Lessons Learned
Importance of Multi-Timeframe Alignment: Ensure liquidity levels and trend shifts are validated across multiple timeframes, prioritizing the lowest timeframe with clear confirmation.
Timeframe Hierarchy: Pay attention to which timeframe begins the trend variation; this may provide better context for range formation and reversal opportunities.
Respecting Market Context: Always consider external catalysts (e.g., data releases) and their potential to distort patterns or create new trends.
Fine-Tuning Entries: The failed trade reinforces the need to wait for more confirmation or better alignment of multi-timeframe trends before entering.
Potential Adjustments to Strategy
Enhanced Liquidity Level Mapping:
Systematically mark liquidity levels across all relevant timeframes.
Identify and prioritize those with multi-timeframe overlap for higher confidence.
Refined Entry Criteria:
Incorporate the concept of "first opposing trend shift" on the lowest timeframe correlated with a higher timeframe liquidity level.
Use this as a trigger point for entries or reversals.
Macro Considerations:
Incorporate awareness of significant economic events into your premarket checklist.
Adjust expectations and risk for days with macroeconomic catalysts.
Journaling Focus:
Track instances where liquidity levels align across multiple timeframes and the subsequent price action.
Record specific trend variations and their timeframes to build a database for future reference.
Next Steps
Develop a framework for identifying and trading liquidity levels with multi-timeframe correlation.
Test your hypothesis about the lowest timeframe trend shift signaling range formation in historical data.
Incorporate these observations into your trading playbook, refining your entry and exit criteria accordingly.
By focusing on these takeaways, you can enhance your understanding of timeframe correlation, refine your strategy, and improve decision-making in future trading sessions.
Todays trade attempt, was a short at the 12 hour buy side liquidity level, it was the first presented 5 minute market structure shift and bearish fair value gap entry, along with a 1t5 minute trend variation attempt, that trade failed as the market continued to squeeze higher.
Something I really wanted to note with this journaling session, is that I may be starting to notice some correlation with trend shifts and variations. associated with the specific timeframe in which the range is trading.
So essentially, I mark the highs and the lows for buy side liquidity, based off of rapid price movements, usually creating orderblocks after completed variations, and based on that specific timeframe in which it was created.
With that being said, ive noticed sometimes that specific buy side or sell side liquidity levels, will have multiple timeframe correlation. For example, one of them can have 2h/1h/30m timeframe correlation for a specific liquidity level, but after todays loss and now analyzing the trend shift, it took place on the 30 minute chart bullish to bearish variation, while squeezing into new all time highs. And it was squeezing into new all time highs, from the 8:30 data that was released, but if you go to the 15 minute chart, theres another relative equal low 15 minute sell side liquidity level, resting right above the 30 minute sell side liquidity level.
So what this is telling me, in todays session, is that the lowest timeframe for a protected low or high, that has multiple timeframe correlation, suggests that a range can be built off of in the opposite direction, depending on the first lowest timeframe to change direction thats in the opposing direction of that solid low or high that was created.
I think potentially approaching the markets with this in mind in the future, will help more with understanding the true range and timeframe correlation being formed when trading, and likely signal when the highest probability turn or reversal entry will be presented.
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