@dreezyreeve / TopStep 50K Evaluation / Trades

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2D DOL Lower, 8:30 DATA Reversal, 9:30 Open DOL Lower, 9:30 Open Short, Afterhours Open Short, Breakeven Trade, D DOL Lower, DIdnt Reach Profit Target, DOL Higher, LIS (Bearish), LIS Reversal, M30 Bearish Orderblock S, M5 FVG Short, NFP, Turtle Soup Long, Upperband to Lowerband Short, VWAP Upperband Target, Wk Bearish to Bullish Trend Shift,

1. Contradictory Market Bias

• You initially identified potential bullish follow-through based on several technical factors (e.g., untapped demand areas and bullish "Line in the Sand"). However, despite these indicators, the overnight session had a short setup, and the market didn't follow your expected bullish bias. This reveals a mismatch between your analysis and market behavior, suggesting the need to refine your directional bias.

2. Ignoring Higher Timeframe Gaps

• One major mistake occurred during the 9:30 session, where you entered based on a 1-minute fair value gap closure without waiting for confirmation from higher timeframes (5-minute and 15-minute). The higher timeframe gaps held more significance, indicating that your entries were premature and lacked multi-timeframe alignment.

3. Misjudging Supply and Demand Zones

• You noticed the absence of a 5-minute demand zone in the overnight session, which may have contributed to your failed bullish "Line in the Sand." Similarly, during the 9:30 session, you anticipated that the bearish line in the sand would fail because there was no 1-minute demand zone. This led to a wrong bias and influenced poor trade decisions, including an unnecessary long.

4. Failure to Adapt to Market Conditions

• After identifying the shift from a bullish to bearish "Line in the Sand" between the overnight and 9:30 sessions, you failed to adapt quickly enough, sticking to a bullish bias when the market was signaling bearish. In hindsight, your first stop-out could have been the perfect short entry, showing hesitation to flip your bias in real time.

5. Overconfidence in Low Timeframe Setups

• You focused on low-timeframe setups (1-minute fair value gap, 1-minute demand area) without giving enough weight to higher timeframes and market structure. This led to false confidence in trades that were ultimately stopped out due to the dominance of larger, more influential market patterns.

6. Overtrading & Emotional Reactions

• You took multiple losses during the overnight session and continued trading into the 9:30 session without reassessing market conditions thoroughly. The "easy money trade" you took off the VWAP lower band was another loss, showing a pattern of overtrading rather than waiting for optimal setups.

7. Self-Reflection & Adjustments

• You recognize that many of the mistakes are avoidable, such as failing to align with higher timeframes, entering trades without strong confirmations, and misjudging the strength of demand and supply zones. The overall takeaway is that you need to make significant adjustments and improvements to avoid repeating these mistakes.

Key Improvements to Focus On:

1. Align Entries with Higher Timeframes – Ensure that your 1-minute or short-term entries are confirmed by higher timeframe signals (5-minute, 15-minute).

2. Respect Market Structure – Be more adaptable when the market structure changes (e.g., when the Line in the Sand flips).

3. Avoid Premature Bias Shifts – Stick to your plan, but be open to flipping bias when valid signals present themselves.

4. Reduce Overtrading – Limit the number of trades and ensure each entry has a strong technical basis, especially when early trades result in losses.

5. Focus on Key Setups – Prioritize higher probability setups and resist taking "easy" trades based on emotional reactions or minor signals.

By improving these areas, you'll be able to make better decisions, minimize losses, and increase your consistency moving forward.

 

 

Adjustments for the Next Trading Session:

1. Align Entries with Higher Timeframes

   • Focus on higher timeframe confirmations (5-minute, 15-minute) before taking 1-minute setups. Make sure the broader market structure supports your trade idea before entering on a smaller timeframe.

2. Respect Market Structure

   • Adapt to market shifts more quickly. If you see a shift in the "Line in the Sand" or market behavior contradicts your initial bias, be prepared to pivot and adjust your strategy, even if it means reversing your directional bias.

3. Improve Demand and Supply Zone Analysis

   • Ensure you're analyzing demand and supply zones across multiple timeframes, particularly the higher timeframes (5-minute, 15-minute). Don’t rely solely on untapped zones in lower timeframes (e.g., 1-minute) without supporting evidence.

4. Wait for Clear Confirmation

   • Instead of jumping into trades based on lower timeframe signals, wait for clear confirmation. If you're trading a 1-minute fair value gap, make sure there's alignment with higher timeframe gaps or other key levels (e.g., 50% mean reversions on larger timeframes).

5. Limit Overtrading

   • Set a rule for yourself to limit the number of trades you take. Once you hit your daily risk limit or experience two losses, step back and reassess the market without rushing into more trades.

6. Trade Only the Best Setups

   • Focus on your highest probability setups. Define and stick to "A+ setups" like key trend reversals or clear support/resistance breaks. Avoid chasing trades that don't align with your trading plan.

Key Intention for the Next Trading Session:

"Patience and Confirmation Over Impulse"

Your key focus should be waiting for higher timeframe confirmation before entering a trade. Every time you feel the urge to trade based on a lower timeframe signal, stop and check whether higher timeframes (5-minute, 15-minute, or even H1/H4) align with your idea. This will help you avoid premature entries and impulsive trading decisions.

 

 

Not a good trading session for both the overnight and 9:30 open session.

In the overnight, when performing my technical analysis, I noticed a few things. 

- We didnt reach the Daily draw on liquidity lower, and we created a slight bullish trend candle formation on the daily chart.

- We still didnt tap into the liquidity higher from the daily bearish fair value gap to the 2 day orderblock, or any liquidity sweeps/runs higher into any 50% mean reversions on higher timeframes

- We had a bullish Line In The Sand at that time

- We had an untapped 1 minute demand area, indicating a potential hold of the lower levels

All of these indicators, suggested to me that we could get potential bullish follow through, because althought I thought overall that the market would see lower prices, I thought in general that the market would want to trade to higher prices first, (ideally around the 2 Day Bearish Orderblock) (After liquidity was swept) to take a sell signal for lower prices. But this didnt happen. It was an overnight short setup from the overnight opening print on the first bullish to bearish variation. Which currently stands as this trading sessions 'Trade Of The Day' setup. 

So how did I trade this?

Well, I took 2 losses attempting to trade the 1 minute untapped demand area, and also got caught in a 'bullish line in the sand' reversal. 

I then entered shortly after on a 'Bullish Turtle Soup' setup after the liquidity was swept. And this trade was going well for some time, until It failed to reach my overall profit target, and came back to take me out of the trade at breakeven.

Then, I woke up and decided to trade the 9:30 session, and there was a full thing I was noticing from the technicals.

- We flipped from an overnight bullish line in the sand, to a 9:30 session bearish line in the sand. 

( And a key observation that I noticed in the failure of the overnight line in the sand, from my estimation, was that it was lacking a 5 minute demand area. None existed, because the liquidity on all 5 minute demands were swept at that time)

Because I thought that because there was no 5 minute demand for the bullish line in the sand, I also noticed that there wasnt a 1 minute demand area that existed for the bearish line in the sand.

This influenced my bias, to believe that the bearish line in the sand would also fail, and that I should approach the 9:30 session with a bullish bias, to tap into more sell side liquidity, and look for an extremity or reversal trade after liquidity was swept. 

Well, this didnt happen, and the 30 minute bearish orderblock created off of the bearish line in the sand rejection in the premarket session, at was the high for the 9:30 session open. 

The 9:30 session trade that I took, was a 1 minute close above a 1 minute 50% fair value gap, which also aligned in confluence with a close above the 1st deviation moving average. But I didnt wait for the 5 minute 50% fair value gap closure, OR the 15 minute fair value gap closure. Which was clear dispacement lower from the open, with a failure to reverse where I entered long. SO its clear that the higher timeframe fair value gaps held more weight than the 1 minute fair value gap. 

Upon this loss, I took one more final trade on what I have journal as my 'easy money trade' which is a simple reaction at the upper or lower VWAP bands.

In this case, I took a lowerband long setup off of a 1 minute price action reaction (bearish to bullish variation) and took my second loss for the session.

In hindsight, My first stopout ( 1 minute fair value gap failure ) actually could have provided me a short entry trade of the day setup, had I just chose to sell rather than to buy. So I made many mistakes between the overnight and the 9:30 trading sessions. 

Overall, I need to make many adjustments to ensure that I solve all of these mistakes and issues. And dont bring it into the next trading week. 

8:30 DATA, H6 Bullish Orderblock, Higher DOL Moving Average, Jobless Claims, M1 Demand Entry, M1 Displacement, M5 Bearish to Bullish Variation, premarket high to low 50% , VWAP Lowerband To Upperband, VWAP Upperband Target,

 

1. Timing and Data Awareness:

   • You woke up at 8:32 AM, just 2 minutes after the 8:30 data drop, and observed M1 displacement at the H6 bullish order block level.
   • The liquidity sweep through the H6 bullish order block suggests you should pay attention to these levels and monitor for potential liquidity draw misses.

2. Importance of Marking Liquidity Levels:

   • The missed lower daily draw on liquidity reinforces the need to consistently mark supply or demand liquidity extremes. This could help anticipate where price is likely to move in the future, giving a clearer roadmap for setups.

3. Chart Timeframe Consideration:

   • You noted that entering the trade on the M1 chart would have resulted in being stopped out at the low of the day before price moved in your direction. Conversely, entering on the M5 chart would have minimized drawdown and improved risk-to-reward.
   • This suggests that using higher timeframes like M5 for entries could offer better trade outcomes, especially in volatile conditions like post-data drops.

4. Overnight Session Scalping:

   • You took a scalp trade off an untested M1 demand area from the prior day and saw quick success after confirming a close above the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the premarket high to low.
   • This demonstrates a successful application of Fibonacci retracement and quick reaction to price action, leading to a profitable 1-2R scalp.

Areas to Consider:

• Continue refining entry precision by considering different timeframes (M1 vs. M5) to optimize for better risk management.
• Marking all supply/demand liquidity zones more accurately could prevent future missed opportunities and clarify extremes.

 

(NOTES)

I woke up somehow at 8:32 on the dot, which was pretty interesting being that data dropped 2 minutes piror, and I noticed M1 displacement through my H6 bullish orderblock level of interest. In which all of the liquidity was sweeped through the the H6 Bullish Orderblock stoploss, with a reaction off of that level, missing the lower daily draw on liquidity by about a 1 minute candle. So In the future, I think it will be very beneficial to mark 100% of supply or demand liquidity so that I can get an idea of the extremes in where price can likely head. 

But I took the retest long from my level of interest after the displacement from the 8:30 data, with a stoploss at my inital stop area from the H6 bullish orderblock. Looking at this trade in hindsight, had I taken the trade on the M1 chart, I would have been stop ran at the low of day for price to immediately have ran in my direction, but If i entered on the 5 minute chart, I would have experienced virtually no drawdown for a very high risk to reward trade. So we will have to keep that in mind for the future.

I did also take a scalp trade in the overnight session, off of an untested m1 demand area from the prior day, it immediately started running, and I didnt take the inital entry, but once we had a 1 minute close above the 50% fib from the premarket high to low, I scalped a long trade for about 1-2R.

1st Higher Low off 1M Demand, 20D 1H 50% FIB Low To High, 2D Bearish Orderblock Target, Cut Trade Early, Higher DOL Moving Average,

Here are the key takeaways from your trading notes:

1. Trade Setup & Execution:

   • You entered your first Topstep combine trade during the overnight session, based on an M1 demand area that aligned with M1 and M5 bullish confluence.
   • Your main level of interest was the 20-day, 1-hour low to high 50% Fibonacci retracement, which you used to identify a potential bottom.

2. Trade Management:

   • You experienced uncertainty about the demand level holding, so you waited for a second reaction before entering.
   • Despite anticipating the trade working out before you slept, the market chopped, and you eventually cut the trade early after waking up 1R positive.
   • Cutting the trade early locked in a win but missed a potential $260 profit that would have been achieved by sticking to your initial profit target.

3. Hindsight Reflection:

   • In hindsight, you recognize that had you followed your original plan and left the trade to work, it would have hit your profit target by 9:49 AM.
   • You acknowledged that although the action was sloppy and involved a fight for price, your analysis was correct, and the trade eventually reached the desired outcome.

4. Lessons Learned:

   • You expressed that while it's fine to have locked in a win, you probably should stick to your trade plan in the future and allow the trade to reach its full potential.
   • You also noted the importance of finding cleaner setups to avoid getting stuck in choppy, accumulative price action.

Summary: Your notes reflect a solid trade setup and execution, but a conservative decision to cut the trade early led to a smaller profit than anticipated. Moving forward, sticking to your trade plan and allowing trades to reach their full potential, as well as focusing on cleaner setups, are key areas for improvement.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I took my first Topstep combine trade here in the overnight session on a long entry from an M1 demand area created. I was unsure if the demand level would immediately drop, so I waited for a second reaction off of the m1 demand area, and had an M1 and M5 bullish confluence upon entry.

I was anticipating that the trade would work before I fell asleep, but it didnt, and I was watching it chop from the moment I entered, so when I woke up I was roughly 1R positive on the trade, so I decided to just cut it and lock in my first win to start the account off in a positive direction.

In hindsight, had I just left the trade, I wouldve reached my profit target, which at that time was just the premarket open print, and I would have made around $260. Its fine. Im okay that I cut the trade early, althought I probably should just stick to the plan in the future.

It was sloppy action on the 20D 1 Hour low to high 50% fib, which was the main level I was trading off of to find a potential bottom. There was multiple M1 demand areas created from the PML created on this trading session, and an overall fight for price. So I was stuck in an overall accumulation that didnt want to pop at the time. But I would have hit my profit target at 9:49AM. Next side I guess I should obsviously just let the trade work. But I think we can find a cleaner setup. 

5 Minute Entry, 9:30 Open Short, H12 Bearish Orderblock (Short), M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation, Overnight Session, Trade Of The Day ,

Todays trade of the day setup, was presented in the overnight trading session from the H12 bearish orderblock, with multiple attempts to sweep the liquidity, it still held strong. So it appears at the moment, the strongest short setup in this current downtrending market is an H12 bearish orderblock short.