10/17/22
Grade: D+
Goals: Be more selective and raise winning %
Reminders/Aphorisms:
- Don't fight the trend;
- Be patient, take good set-ups
- Respect at least 2:1 R/R
Overview: Last Thursday was a shit show - I broke a lot of rules and need to step back and regain composure. A lot of that trading was FOMO after the big move on CPI numbers. I was not able to trade Friday but it looks like we sold back off to previous day close before that crazy Thursday where we had that short squeeze. I think it may be best to treat it like that day never happened. Looking at the SPY today We are up like $6 on the SPY to start the day. We are also within the 362-363 zone which was important previously. Because of that weird day last Thursday it's unclear how valid these zones really are anymore though. Potential scenarios:
1) We keep moving up a little until 10:00 a.m. when we get a reversal and move down through the 362-363 zone to the next zone around 355-356. We can very easily bounce on that level and then move up or consolidation. If not the move down would be to 348-350 or the lows set recently.
2) We sell off a little at open and then grind up to the 371-372 zone that was where things topped out recently and had been a previous zone.
Trade Analysis:
- Trade 1 was a trend reversal short on the 1 minute trend break. It had broken the 1 minute trend and was retesting it. I got a bad entry on this and had to stop out. I did not respect my R/R on this as it moved fast and I lost close to 60c on this. This was a bad trade in many aspects. I should have not taken this trade as it was closing in on VWAP and getting buying pressure. Also my entry was bad and I did not respect my risk.
- Trade 2 was the same trade as the trade 1 but I got a much better fill. We had a topping tail rejection on the 1 minute so I was looking for continuation to the downside. This trade hit my 50c target but TOS did not fill me. Then it continued to the upside and I lost on this trade, again not respecting my R/R as I lost close to 40c on it.
- Trade 3 was a complete revenge trade of the prior trade as I was angry that TOS screwed me on my fill. This should never have been a trade, and again I did not respect risk and took a 40c loser.
- Trades 4 was a continuation long trade. We had a strong move on good volume, I got in on the pullback right before the previous high looking for the break of the high. I got my 50c on this trade.
- Trade 5 was a trend break short. However this was rushed because I had a conference at 10:30 and I took the trade at 10:21, which was dumb. I closed it for about break even. I would have likely closed this out for a loser if I had held.
- Trade 6 was a continuation downtrend trade. I got in this too low and too early but I at least stopped at my risk.
- Trade 7 was a continuation downtrend trade, the same trade as before just positioned better. I was looking at the 5 minute chart for a continuation of the trend break to the downside. I had to hold this through alot of chop but got the full 50c on it. By accident I had the close order for full position size or I could have let my runner go another $1 at least.
- Trade 8 and 9 were both continuation downtrend trades which we poor trades. we had strong movement up towards VWAP - if I was going to short I should have waited until VWAP.
- Trade 10 was the trade I should have taken. This was a continuation downtrend trade off the trendline and VWAP. This was a great trade where I took 50c on my partial and close to $1 on the rest.
- Trade 11 was a trendbrend reversal long. We broke the 5 minute downtrend and were holding around VWAP (not shown on screengrabs).
- NOTES: Gray Arrow 1 (not show on grabs - around 9:44) - was a break of the trend line on the 1 minute chart and a retest of the trend line. This was after rejecting around the 367.5 level I looked at previously. This would have been a fairly stress free trade, although this was a strong opening green drive which made it a little riskier as this would have been a trend reversal trade. AGAIN - TOO MANY TRADES. I need to respect my R/R so that if I do lose my first 1-2 trades I am not down so big and chasing all day. Also when TOS does not fill me I need to give myself a cool down period as I revenge traded as a result.
Lesson moving forward: Respect my risk - I'm letting my losers get too big. I can always re-enter a trade.