August 26th, 2022
I took zero trades today because I want to avoid any day that the Fed talks just because the volatility is usually extreme and I think its probably best to avoid. Although, I do think today had some very good trading opportunities with high % win rate just because big money was dumping massive amounts of money once JP stopped talking.
There were 3 potential entries that obviously look amazing in hindsight but in the moment they felt like chasing to the downside on a day where downside moves are rarely held and its very common to see them flip and get bought up heavily similar to how we saw in the last 5 FOMC days.
Potential Entry 1: I couldve taken the short on the breakdown through the previous huge spike down and recovery. Although I wouldve made my target very fast this just seems like a sketchy trade because again it couldve easily just bounced and stopped me out so fast before I ended up watching is move down another 6 dollars a share
Potental Entry 2: The push towards the 8ema and fail down. Again this is really just me fomo looking back at the day because Idc what is going on that is a sketchy trade. Again it couldve easily spiked back up a dollar a share and destroyed me
Potential Entry 3: Again another chase the lows scenario where I take the failed 8ema break.
I do think it was the right choice to just avoid all of these trades on a day like this because its just so volatilte and I dont really like trading on an FOMC day mostly because my track record is fucking awful but I just dont think I am ready to be taking aggressive shorts on this move down. Maybe if I was not red on the month and had a good cushion and also if I was taking a lot more aggressive entries on my normal day trading then possibly I wouldve traded this. I think in the future I will see this as an amazing opportunity to short and hold for big moves but not in my current mindset and not in my current state in my career. Although the FOMO is fucking huge right now I am proud of myself for sticking to my gut and just leaving the day alone. Yeah I couldve had a blow away day and made tons of money but I also couldve taken a loss while being correct trying to chase a low and then got tilted and taken another trade chasing and losing again. Couldve easily been a disaster just as much as it couldve easily been a huge green day. Either way though I think in this point in my career its best to just avoid. Someday in the future I will make millions of dollars on a day like this.