5D 61.8 FIB failure, 9:30 Open at PMH, against open print, bullish squeeze, H4 Uptrend,

Insane day, the market went exactly where I anticipated, which was an entire gap fill on the longer term charts, off of a 78% FIB overnight thatb acted as the PML. Targeting 16740

Despite the market heading where i though, and not being able to catch even a single crumb towards the direction, I just simply couldnt get involved because of how high we opened (AT PMH), closer to the top of the range. And just never came back at all, for any solid long entry areas that provided R/R with edge. It just moved straight up. Failed a rejection for the 2nd and 3rd levels. 

The only thing I did well today was immediately following my stoploss. On all 3 losing trades.

I knew the entire time, that I shouldnt go against the open print, that it would hit my desired target, and that the 3 short attemps would almost certainly fail. And thats what happened. But what was I supposed to do? Just long in the middle of nowhere? 

I simply could not gauge where to get involved on the long side. It literally rode my M1 fib sequence EMAS chart the ENTIRE DAY. I have not seen a market run like this in quite some time. 

 

The 2 potential long entries on the day were the OP rip, which was very difficult to catch having to click buy on the first minute of monday. But I have to start taking advantage of this somehow. I miss so many trend days off the open.

the second entry could have been a long entry off of the 61.8% fib failure, and instead of short, revert to the longs. Those were the only viable trades I seen on the day. but still, in both of these areas, a solid stoploss could not be rightfully defined. 

H4 Bullish Pivot, H4 Demand,

The first 2 Shorts were an attempt at a 1 Day 61.8% retracement that failed 2 times. 

The first long was an emotional trade, where I was trying to go against the path of least resistance. But we never caught a bid.

The winning trade, was a trade where I went against the open print (uncomfortably) because of the fair value gap above with the expectation to go back against the open print, with a failure breakdown for shorts on an overextended move down. Betting that the new found 4 Hour trend would bounce back up. And thats exactly what happened. I was able to get into this trade with a full 10 micros (1mini) and maximize a move back up to go from red to green on the day. 

What we learned*

1 day 61.8* downside FIB, was a short trap, on the back on 10AM data, and we should attempt to remove this from our strategy for now, until proven otherwise. For now, on bearish retracements, we will use the 2 Day 61.8% fib. 

DO NOT TAKE emotional trades in the center of a range that have no risk reward.

Going against the open print on a short on a 1 day 61.8% fib, is not currently working in this market

Going against the open print, will always provide a lower probability setup

DO NOT HOLD LOSERS THAT ARE SQUEEZING. Next time you take a very tight trade before a data drop, you have to set a hard stop and just accept the outcome.

50% retracement fib long, above 9:30 Open Print, M1 Demand Entry, OPEN DRIVE,

+106.50

Woke up late yet again, got to the computer at 9:26 AM. Was texting some chick into the late night (cant do this anymore)

I seen the market bottoming at 30D 50% retracements from lows to highs. Was also keeping the 20D 50% on watch as well.

The premarket low found immediate demand into the 9:30 session open print. I didnt want to obviously buy at the top of the range, so I decided to rigorously follow the entry system thats been working for me. and that M1 demand entries with limit orders This has been working incredibly well, as its been keeping my risk super super low, and reward very high. It also blends well into a nice balace/median between scalping and holding. 

I was targeting the entire gap fill, but noticed that we had the previous sessions potential demand turned supply above, also with another attempt at a bullish H1 pivot, which provided the entry yesterday as a bullish fakeout entry with H4 bear pivot stoploss.

Everything in terms of the entry was flawless, but one thing I did incorrectly was not properly sizing on the trade. The postion size calculator allowed for a 2 contract entry, but I decided to play it safe with a single micro. I walked away of the trade green, but left double and more on the table. The entry system that I have been using is working very effectively and next time the profit calculator tells me to size up, I have to have full faith in the entry.

We are now 25% to our required profit target for funding. Keep doing this everyday, journaling the good, the bad, the playbook etc, and you should have absolutely no problem becoming breakaway profitable this year.

 

ALSO ***VERY IMPORTANT***

These M1 demand entries have allowed for me to enter at the lowest possible risk I can achieve. We are recognizing through this that, its not about being right or wrong on the trade, but getting in at the LOWEST POSSIBLE RISK we can on every single trade. And this is the gamechanging mental shift into this trading year. LOWEST POSSIBLE RISK ENTRIES. That is all we can do. This is an R-Multiple game. As Umar always said. I am noticing that with some of these M1 entries, there are areas where im entering trades with what feels like virtually zero risk. And that is the golden ticket. These areas allow you to maximize size, heavily reduce risk and maximize reward. As as a day trader, thats all you can control. Risk Management, and utilizing your technical edge to increase your probabilities in the market.

Your win rate has also heavily increased with this system. (M1 demand entries). You have been trading in the realm of 70-75% win rate.

KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK! 

Supply and Demand,

Woke up late today. Was on the computer at 9:15. Having alot of trouble waking up early.

But we made over $500 on the session. Just simply trading with the supply levels back into demand.

I took around 3-4 full short trades, first one went againt me, having caught fomo with the previous 2 sessions trading setup, but the M1 candle didnt pivot to the downside.

The trade of today was an H4 bullish to bearish pivot high as a stoploss, with an entry for a bearish to attempted bullish H1 pivot. It was a fakeout for bulls that provided a short entry.

All of the trades throughout the day were taken with key levels, supply and demand, and M1 pivots with limit order entrys. This has been working very well for me to keep my risk as low as possible.

Below 9:30 Open Print, DAILY DOWNTREND, H4 downtrend, M1 Demand Failure PML, overnight gap down, Pending Weekly Downtrend,

Woke up late today. Jumped on the computer around 9:15 AM. I potentially could have capitalized on this setup If I had more time to prepare.

I seen the trade unfold, but was hesistant to trade, being it was the turn of a new year, and the market gapped down heavily in the overnight, I thought there was a big potential for a fakeout short at the bottom of a range.

I waited patiently throughout the day for a good retracement entry, eyeing the 61.8% retracement, but it never came, it had a very sloppy failure at the 50% retracement level. 

I took a small loss, playing against the trend, with 1 micro, to break the ice, noticing the potential for a market reversal, with the VIX and internals chopping. It was a very very low risk trade.

And thats what I intend to be my approach this year. Looking to enter in lowest risk areas. But for next trade, we are not allowed to take against the Open Print.

We knew this in advance, but decided to try anyway. If we want to trade with perfection this year, must follow every rule rigorously.