Grade: B-

Goals: Be more selective and raise winning %

Reminders/Aphorisms: 

  • Don't fight the trend;
  • Be patient, take good set-ups
  • Respect at least 2:1 R/R

Overview: Haven't really been watching the markets since I got COVID over the weekend and have been feeling terrible. Yesterday we had a pretty basic grinding green day where we found support at the 395-396 zone and hit 400 where we rejected and came back down to that zone. Overnight we gapped up and at 8:30 PPI numbers came out which caused the market to shoot up even higher due to lower than estimated numbers. We are gapping up significantly on the day. We are approaching the overall downtrend from January on the daily chart which is sitting at around the 412 level. The 200 EMA on the daily chart is at 401.53, which we broke above. The 400 level break was a big level of resistance where we will now likely use as strong support. Potential scenarios:

1) I believe we grind back down to 400 where we find support and then continue to move higher. We are kind of in no man's land because in early September we gapped down from 415 to 401, leaving a lot of space on the charts. We could easily fill this and test 412.

2) If we do continue higher at open we will likely find some sort of resistance likely at some full dollar level like 405, or 410. It's hard to really find a rejection point going higher due to the gap I mentioned above. I don't know if I would feel comfortable shorting if we keep moving up at open.

Trade Analysis:

  • Trade 1 was a bounce off 400 that I was expecting for a trend reversal long. However I got a shitty fill and because I haven't been feeling well and it looked weak I closed it out for around breakeven. I should have been move confident in the trade and held to risk as this would have worked out. I need to hold to either risk or target there was no reason to close this trade.
  • Trade 2 was a trend continuation long on the prior trade that I missed. I got in on a minor pullback and held for my 50c profits. When we stalled I then took the remainder of the shares as it looked like we were topping where the prior high had been.
  • NOTES: I need to be more confident in my premarket analysis. I have been pretty spot on recently. Hold to risk or target and take emotions out.

Lesson moving forward: Find the balance between getting in trades quickly/not hesitating, and being patient and taking only optimal trades.