Premarket: It has somehow been a full week since I've traded due to real life obligations. Since then we have moved up close to 150 points on the ES and yesterday we had good CPI numbers come out. Today is the Fed Rate Decision at 2:00 with JPow speaking at 2:30 p.m. General consensus is that the market has a rate cut factored in the it's pricing. If I was a betting man though I think JPow will pause the rate hikes today rather than make any cuts. There are 3 scenarios that may happen, in likelihood of happening: 1) We get a pause - if we get a pause it's unclear how the market will react as this signals that we likely won't have any more rate hikes. However because the market is factoring in a rate cut, we may move down; 2) We get a rate hike of 25 pts - again I don't believe this is likely given the data that's been coming out - if this happens we'll see a strong move to the downside; 3) We get a rate cut - very small chance of this happening, but if it does the market is going to skyrocket. In terms of levels of interest we are way above any plotted levels I have, however in the premarket we found resistance at the 4428 level. The pivot points are as follows: 0 pivot 4407.58, +1pivot 4433.67, +2pivot 4449.33, -1pivot 4391.92, and -2pivot 4365.83.Most likely we will have a muted morning due to the Fed Decision and JPow at 2:00 and 2:30 respectively, but in order to take a long I will want to see a move to 4428 with strong volume through that level looking for a move to the +1pivot. If we keep moving down I would want to see some sort of pull up to VWAP where sellers step in and we move down to the 0pivot, keeping an eye out for the 4414 level where we had been bottoming out in the premarket. Plan will be to wait for FOMC and trade that.


This was a lot of trading FOMC fuckery - so there is no point in really reviewing as this was all based on PA and what JPow was saying.