Premarket: In the post/premarket today we kind of consolidated and are opening around flat on the day. We are starting on an uptrend above VWAP. There is no real news this week and volume was extremely low yesterday. Pivots are as follows: 0pivot 4285, -1pivot at 4275.25, and -2pivot at 4258.75; +1pivot at 4301.5, and +2pivot at 4311.25 (the positive pivots seem close together). Yesterday we topped out around 4294.75 and previously in the day at 4293.5. These should be levels of interest today to see how the market reacts to these levels. The yearly high is at 4305.75. If we stay above VWAP I want to see a pull back with buyers stepping in then I'll take a long to 4301.5. If we break below VWAP I want to see the VOLD/TICK/ADD all trending down and finding sellers at VWAP or a key pull-up level in order to move towards -1 or -2pivot.
Trade 1: The TICK/ADD/VOLD were all very green and trending up, screaming long. I know we were coming up to big resistance at the yearly high but we were holding the +1pivot and looking like we were building buying pressure to move through the yearly high. We eventually sold down through the +1pivot and I close for a 3 point loser.
Trade 2: Same trade as the first one just a little lower and risked VWAP which was a larger stop loss. I don't understand why I cannot win on long trades. It is getting infuriating because the market is moving into a sort of bull market where you just buy every dip and I somehow lose on every long trade I take. There have been less and less short opportunities and I need to understand what I'm doing wrong when I'm going long. Maybe the answer is to take smaller size and keep my stops larger? However on both of these trades I still would have lost so I don't think that's the answer.
Trade 3: This time I took a short - looking for a continued break down below VWAP. The TICK/ADD/VOLD looked like they had turned and were going to start trending down and we just had a sell-off on high volume. We broke below VWAP and bounced and were holding right above it, looking to pile on sellers for a big move down through VWAP. I had set my stop at the 20/9 EMAs which were practically on top of each other, which was a tight 2-3 point stop and we bounced and I got stopped out. This trade eventually would have worked but I would have had to have my stop at the 4300 level which would have been a 5 pt loss after 2 consecutive losers. Overall I don't think this was a terrible trade although the overall market sentiment is green and we have been trending up. However we did find resistance near the yearly high which lead to the big sell off.
