9/29/22

Grade: C+

Goals: Be more selective and raise winning %

Reminders/Aphorisms: 

  • Don't fight the trend;
  • Be patient, take good set-ups
  • Respect at least 2:1 R/R

Overview: Couldn't trade yesterday so I have to be careful of being overanxious and too gun shy (contradictory I know). Yesterday the SPY had a green move up, a large engulfing green candle on the daily chart. This also broke the more micro trendline down from September 12th. This was after it had made a new low in the premarket of 358.72. The SPY grinded green all day until it hit the 370-372 supply zone (previous demand zone we had been ranging at) and rejected. If you look at the larger picture, we're still technically ranging with the bottom moving down $2-3. I think if we move back up to the 370-372 level we will reject and move back down to the lows, where we will likely bounce again and continue ranging. If we start the day down, we will likely bounce at the low and move up.

Trade Analysis:

  • Trade 1 was not a great setup, probably a C. I was looking for the rejection of the 9 EMA off of a weak green bounce for continuation down after some consolidation. This was also the rejection of the demand zone at 362-363. I closed for 25c loss and at least I used smaller size due to the not optimal setup. The trade eventually worked out, I was just a little early.
  • Trade 2 was a little bit of a risky trade as well, probably a C. I was looking for a reversal trade going long after a break of the 5 minute downtrend I took it with smaller size because of it. Was looking for 50c and risking 25c. Got the 50c move on a green pop and took the entire trade as this was not an optimal setup.
  • NOTES: The first gray arrow was a missed trade off a micro pull-up on the 1 minute chart. There were small volume green candles and the market was aggressively moving down. I tried to get in at 365.5 but didn't get filled - I would have asily gotten my 50c and even up to $2. Gray arrow #2 was a period of consolidation after finding the demand zone. There was a very weak green bounce and I expected the move to be lower again. However it was tricky to time the entry. This would have been a good trade on the 5 minute.

Lesson moving forward: Don't force trades - it's fine to have a scratch day.