- Higher timeframes are in uptrend but
- Lower timeframes all on downtrends from the OP(M) OP(Q) OP(W)
- We are daytraders and if the lower timeframes are in downtrending range like channels then we need to be able to play them to both sides. I think perhaps since the Daily and Weekly are so extended that maybe this is still an A+ setup but I think maybe I should reserve A+ for the long trades since our daily chart is in an uptrend from the beginning of the year. Probably wont do that for now tho we will see
- We have some clean BSL and 1h FVG here that we have been using as resistance. Today was the exact same, we broke out of CPI high then hunted the BSL at the high from wednesday then hunted the BSL from monday high and finally failed in that zone in the same FVG that monday failed in.
- Once we hit the BSL we can expect SSL to be hit especailly from the fact that we also we at the top of the descending channel on the 1h 15m and 5m timeframes. the SSL is down at PDL. These big volatile days are seeming to get more and more predictable because wow they just hit 2 old highs, swiped them out, took out a big low, swiped them out. now back to normal. This week seems terrible for longs but in reality we only went down 8 points from the open of the week. This is absolute insanity that we have been seeing just back to back to back 60 point days that just get sold then bought then sold then bought then sold. I should expect more of the same to continue and these are times when you can really make a fucking killing if you really time one of these bottoms or tops. This one was hard but they all are. The question is how do I get size into this and hold for a 20 point trade?
10:22 ES VOLD broke LOD 10:24 Futures VOLD 11:20 ADD
- ES itself broke down and made its first backside FVG after httting 2 BSL and an unfilled 1h FVG from friday at 10:35 so that was predicted perfectly by the internals except the ADD which is usually bullshit anymore
- Its also notable that the NQ and RTY also broke down about 5 minutes before the ES. I did take a short there but I stopped out for 1 point loss because reasons stated in my most recent DRC
Current solutions to that problem of stopping out too early include
1. Uptrend, Downtrend, Range? Cont or Rev? FVG? Willing to stop at risk level?
- I did not trust that we were in a dowtrend yet because I have been burned many times trading CPI. I knew I was doing a reversal but did not respect the strategy of holding to the stop which is HOD.
Trade Review Cont.
- 1ATR was reached which is good sign if we are in a ranging style market that mean reversion can happen pretty soon.
1. 1h 15m in downtrends and in a channel, we hit the top
2. Internals turned 15 minutes before the rest of the market which is first sign to get in and test the waters
3. 15m FVG hit
4. 2 BSL hit
5. RVOL high
6. NQ RTY broke 5 minute before ES
7. Weight broke when NQ broke
1. ADD didnt break LOD before SPY
How do we trade it passively?
- Passively is all just continuation trading without the reversal (avoid that first trade)
How do I trade it aggressively?
An aggressive target would be the retracement of the %50 level of yesterdays low to todays high. In a descending channel that is a reasonable target.
- This is how you trade it aggressively with adding and target of 50% retracement of previous days low to todays high. That is a legit target with a legit return of about 20 points. The correct way to trade this would be to use like 6 contracts at the top then add 2 more on the FVGs lower. Not sure how I couldve held this the whole way down to lows but I definitely couldve traded the continuation on the way down with all the FVGs that got filled. Was such a pure trend
What step can I place into action to not avoid these trades in the future?
1. Always do premarket analysis and make sure you have an idea of the BSL SSL and where the liquiditiy will draw if we break certain levels.
2. If we are in a trend on the 1h and 15m and we hit a clean FVG then we should follow that trend as well as stay in the descending channel that we made.
3. If overall market is trending always stay with that trend until structure shift occurs.
4. ID range uptrend downtrend, cont or rev, FVG?, can you stop and be okay with it?