Today was probably the first time ever that I got on tilt and it ended up making me more money than making me lose money. This is extremely dangerous trading. I had nearly 5 back to back losers and was down about $150 basically just (fuck it) trading. Eventually I made it all back by 2x but this is not a sustainable strategy for trading. I cannot be holding these massive losers over and over. I understand if I take tiny losses from having tight stops and being patient with my entries and just waiting for the next trade but this was not at all like that. I was holding for 10 point losers from the premarket. That is just insanely stupid. I can always get back in and if the trend is actually good then there are always more entries. If I am that scared to miss the entry then I shouldnt be trading anyways. 

    - I had to manually input this so the time section is off but yes I only had a 28% win rate but I also had a 5R on these trades. That means I can still make a decent amount of money. 


    - Again super sloppy trading. The first trades made zero sense and I should not have taken them. 


Trades 1-7: Trend Reversal (Frontside Shorts up until the 5th trade). Last trade wasContinuation

1. TA/Strategy

    - The entire idea of a trend reversal is that you must firstly have the price action show the pattern. This is a trend break retest of break level then failure. If you dont have that pattern then the trade should not even be considered whatsoever. I shorted 5 times where the pattern was not showing itself and I lost on all 5 of them. I was bailed out on the 6th trade and made it all back 2x but still this is not a sustainable strategy if you trade at all before the pattern shows itself.

    - Clear consolidation on the 30m. We have sideways action where we start to build up into the breakout of the consolidation. If you look closely you will see that there are 2 failures at the top of the range before and they both were abrupt and strong. This last retest was not like that at all. We held up into the mid range then went back up to top range. This was bullish yet I was shorting into a massive 30m breakout which was also the high of the year. 

    - This is the trend reversal pattern. You can see an uptrend starting from the open then we fail and break the trend. After this we retest that level (oval area) and then we fail very strong back into a break below the PDC. Shorting before the trend break is just insanely stupid. Its a pure frontside in every way. 

    - You can see that we also flipped the trend on the VOLD and ADD right around the same time that the SPY flipped its trend. TICK also was uptrending for the first 1.5 hours then right at 11 it started to trend back down until about 12 when it became more neutral. At 10:32 the NQ broke its VOLD trend to downside. At 11:18 the SPY broke VOLD to downside. At 11:09 the ADD broke it trend and went clean backside. Im not sure what the sectors looked like at that point. I think that when the market opened we broke out and nearly all sectors were green. They all had a big breakdown pretty much when the SPY had its trend break which was at 10:32. This is very key. The SPY had the trend break way before the VOLD TICK or ADD were showing weakness. On the big retest on the SPY which was at 11:16, that is when all internals had already broke trends as well. They lagged about 30 minutes behind the price action itself. This is very key to this strategy. First the price aciton breaks trend, then you must see the ADD VOLD TICK sectors also break their trends to confirm the trendbreak on the ES/SPY. This is how it really works in a great way. 

    - In the morning this was nearly 100% green. After the trend break they started to slowly become red. by EOD, Risk on red risk off green. That means we go up lol.

2. Trade Review

   Firstly, lets reiterate when you DO NOT trade this pattern. 

    - This is the 2m and you can see clearly that we had a huge breakout at the open and are holding easily above the 9ema. We did not break the 9ema and have a candle closure below it until we broke the uptrend. This is all UNSHORTABLE. When we are in a frontside you do not short, end of story.

Ideas: D

    - This is all pretty awful trading until I catch the backside and end up covering at the perfect low. I knew that today would have a big blow off top because we have been so aggressive but just because I have a hunch about what could happen on the day does not mean that I should be basing my execution off that assumption. I need to go into the market extremely clear with no directional bias. If I end up being that way I almost always fuck myself over. I was shorting the entire frontside. That means I get nearly an F for idea. 

Execution: D

  - I short the big breakout at open then cover for 8 point loss when I couldve easily only lost about 3. I did it again right after and lost another 10 points when I couldve easily stopped out for only 2 point loss. Then yet again I do it but this time I only lose about 2 points because I was down so much already. I then cover pretty much at the perfect top then chase the move lower at 420 and add int the very bottom of the move, then add again at the bottom before panic covering 1 of my contracts. After that panic sell I got back in with the same 3 contract size and I rode it nearly perfectly to the bottom. I then shorted one more time for a continuation of the short move and got about 4 more points with only 1 contract. I really like how I managed to hold for a 20 point trade with 3 contracts which is my biggest win of my career but the way it happened just seemed like it was not skill and more luck. If this kept going higher on the day and I kept shorting I couldve blown nearly $200 just from stubbornness and tilt. 

Mindset: F

    - I was very angry losing the first 4 times and then got into a fuck it attitude and was shorting every top. These places I was shorting at the open were nearly perfect trend continuation trades going long but somehow I was shorting into a massive 30m breakout and these wins honestly are not fair and I shouldve lost. I was bailed out by whoever decided to sell at 11:20am. had the whale not done anything I wouldve probably just lost $200 on the day. Had I avoided the entire frontside or even better made money on it then I ended up getting in for the reversal and holding for that same trade then I wouldve had a massive green day but instead I fucked up the entire first half of the day and diminished my profits massively. 


What did I do right?

    - I size up when I knew my EV was going more + as we broke the trend, As the trend broke I got a point towards +EV, then 9ema had candle closure below it, then ADD, VOLD, TICK also broke down big, ES retested the trendbreak zone, Sectors slowly turning red. That is an A+ setup where I need to be adding, adding, adding, then selling quickly at key levels. This is reversal not a trend trade. In the reversals you must take profits very intelligently because the overarching trend still exists and can easily blow you out of the trade. Its more of a super calculated scalp with very intentional entries and adds. I think I added very poorly into this trade but that was because I was trading it before the setup even existed. Had I waited I think I couldve maybe gotten even more size in this. Perhaps it was necessary for me to lose on the frontside and go on tilt so that when my EV became much more + I was going to tilt size into the trade. I needed to know it was possible to have a big trade like that so thank you stock market for bailing me out of this trade and thank you for showing me that I can size into a winner and hold for smart exits. 


How should I have traded this? (Longs)

Move to move

    - This is how you trade a frontside as a scalper. We had a 30m massive breakout. You enter on the 9ema retest as long as not candle close below that level. You can see as we hit the 9ema we break below it, coil, have a big thrust off that level and breakout. I couldve easily gotten in and sold right at the breakouts. This is a clear move to move trading strategy. You get in with clear very obvious stop, (break below 2m candle low) or (break below prior bar lows), then you hold for the breakout and sell into the breakout, wait for the next opportunity and do it again. The only thing that is shitty about this stategy is that you will never be able to scalp with perfect accuracy and the reward on these trades are so small but if you think like that then you miss out on a ton of easy money trades. Who gives a shit that they are only 2-4 points. Money is money. When you have huge size and can scalp these small moves then you will be happy you did it with this small size. Start this with 1 contract and if you become really exceptional at it then you can size more so long as your true A+ hold setups you are still using like 8x size on. 

Trade to hold

    - This is the same exact frontside as shown previously. Instead of going for scalps on 9ema retests this is more of a "accumulation of the trend" strategy. This is a trade to hold. I think that this is definitely something I want to understand better but the only problem is that when the market is so indecisive like it has been for over a year, it is so difficult to hold trades that long without some type of black swan happening. Its just very hard to trust something to hold like that. Its smarter to expect longs to hold since we are above all achored vwaps (yearly, monthly, weekly). Although, this is not a good idea on this specific day because the VOLD ADD and TICK were all not looking anything like a trend day. I think if we open and its strong like this and the ADD is ripping massively off the open and the VOLD is breaking to new HOD back to back to back, then the TICK is alos putting in a ton of +600 values then yes this is exactly how you want to trade this strategy. This is how you maximize the potential of profits while minimizing risk. The last strategy was a scalping move to move strategy which I think is the ONLY way to trade this specific day because of the internals and sectors showing weakness into this breakout. If that was not the case though and we really did have strength on all internals and sectors, then this is exactly how you want to trade this strategy. You add in the same places that you were scalping in the last strategy, 9ema retest holds, then you sell once we break trend and have a 9ema candle closure below. In the last strategy you wouldve made about 10 points on only 1 contract so that is $50. This strategy is a 5 contract trade where you would not be able to sell at the top because you are waiting for the 9ema break and retest. BUT you wouldve made at least 5 points on this strategy and more likely that its closer to 8. With 5 contracts, 8 points is $200. That is 4x the amount of the last strategy. That is great in theory but again this is not what you would want to do on this specific day simply because internals were not confirming and you do not add into trends when there are divergences with internals. 

How should I have traded this? (Short)

Move to Move

    - This is the opposite of the way I traded this pattern. This is a move to move style compared to how I traded it which was a trade to hold. I couldve also gotten short at the trend break then sold at the break, done it again, done it again (and lose, red circle), then 1 more time with a possible add spot. Had I done it this way instead of the way I traded it then I wouldve made about $125. This was ddefinitely NOT the way to trade this pattern on this day. Internals were on my side at this point so this is clearly a trade to hold. If you do like doing move to moves then perhaps its better to just take profits at any 4 point extention from the 9ema. Instead of covering at break of previous lower low, its easier to just take any 4 point extention of 9ema. This way you can get bigger winners because if we are going to make lower lows then why sell at the previous lower low. If we do get a 4 point 9ema extention then that is usually a place where the lower low will hold and we will get another retest of a lower high. Sell there and wait for the next lower high to get in again. The only thing that wouldve been unfortunate is that if you sold at a 4 point extention on that last big drop then you wouldve left nearly 11 points on the table. I think sometimes its better to go for new lower low and sell at key levels and sometimes its better to just scalp. When internals are confirming your trade though then you add into that and you do not scalp it. 


    - This is how I shoudlve traded the trend reversal. Wait for the trend break. Get in with 1 contract on the trendbreak retest zone, add into any pop into that zone with stop at HOD. It wouldve been so scared to add into that last big pop because I wouldve had a pretty bad average at that point because I definitely wouldnt have added perfectly into those tops. Had I dont this though it woudlve been about a 15 point trade with 7-8 contracts. That is $600. I definitely think I can do that I just need to also identify the first trades on the frontside too and not completely neglect them. I think had I been up about $50 on the frontside then I couldve definitely edged into this trade very nicely. If I lost on this trade with 8 contracts I wouldve had to risk about 5-6 points which is about $200 in losses. I think I woudlve slowly scaled out of that trade though had I been above the trendbreak retest zone.