First Trade: No Setup/Short Anticipation
1. TA/Strategy
- CPI was this morning and was dropping per usual. We broke out of data candle high in premarket but we have a hike tomorrow and PPI so I was not really expecting much in terms of good price action.
- At the open the internals were all up a lot and ADD was moving a lot higher with TICK only at +1000.
- Somewhat of a mixed sector reading. This is odd but makes sense given that FOMC is tomorrow.
2. Review
Idea: C
- I think being prepared for the short was not a bad thing today but I shouldve been more willing to scalp moves and just walk away instead of trying to fight a grinding green market. This wasnt truly grinding green but it was damn close with the choppy bullshit. This trade had nothing going for it either. QQQ was dropping but that is kind of it. ADD moving up VOLD up, TICK up. Sectors, green. All made no sense. At least I only lost $8 on this trade. It really was more of a feeler than anything.
Execution: A
- I was early and got out. I was simply getting ready for a bigger trade but didnt want to hold into a huge frontside for it.
2-5 Trend Reversals
1. TA
- To give this some context, the market is back into pure bull territory and people are getting very greedy. There will be a blow off top at some point this week and I need to be there when it happens and add like 10 contracts into a 30 point move. I can definitely do it I just need to be prepared. I am stalking it very closely this week and am trying to be ready so today I was making sure I didnt miss out on it. I got a nice 8 point winner with 3 contracts but then tried to get back in 3 more times for the selloff but it never happened and started to just bull flag into the end of the session. This made sense though given that rate hike tomorrow as well as PPI. These are the most hedged events that exist so the market will clearly be very choppy.
- Tons of high of day fakeouts.The big red move is going to happen soon I just dont know when.
- Everything was pretty bullish throughout the entire day other than the ADD but still it didnt break the LOD until 2:30 so that is pretty bullish.
- Rotational
2. Review
Idea: B
- The first trade was really good. I added into it and sold pretty much at the low of the move but once it came back up and broke the small downtrend and brokeout only to fakeout the HOD again, I shouldve just left it alone and stopped beating a dead horse. I knew these breakouts would not be strong simply because FOMC tomorrow and hedging and all the other shit I already said in this post. I got a really nice trade in there and I think the second attempt was find and even the third was fine but once it brokeout from that zone no more shorting. The last trade was my biggest loser too so that was pretty much a revenge trade. I think I handled today very well because I didnt hold my losers long and I added into my winners. I know it sounds so simple but its a very very hard thing to do. Holding for that big short trade that netted me about $115 was really hard. I was in the red multiple times in that move. I panic exited only slightly but the trade was still good. I held the last contract until I thought fuckery would begin and I timed that pretty well. If any of those shorts after the big 3 contract trade wouldve dropped I couldve easily added into them and gotten another $100 or much more trade. I really like the idea of setting starters and stopping out fast if wrong and then adding if you become right. You can kind of tell when you are going to get a really good trade because usually you are in the green nearly immedaitely and then you have pullups to your entry after the chart has already proven its weak. Its the best case scenario and I have been working on it for a very long time now. I will catch that big 10 contract 25 point trade here soon.
Execution: A
- Execution was pretty spot on I think. Like I said above the only trade here that was "bad" was the last one. Other than that I traded this very nicely. I think the only thing I couldve done was add a little big more intelligently on those pops. I kinda added into the bottom of them when I shouldve added on the spikes back up. I need to realize that when I am going for HOD fakeouts then the pullups are also going to be very "fakeout-y" If the first drop was a HOD fakeout then the 2nd and 3rd ones will be too. I shouldve added into the pops and then had 4 contract but its hard to say this is an A Trade. I think its more of a B or C because internals were all contradictory but if they are contradictory and we have FOMC tomorrow then that is a good reason to trust a range and that is kind of what I did. Shorting a HOD break it extremely sketchy if you arent very experienced in doing so. I knew this would work and instead of panic selling on the first drop I was looking to maximize the potential of that move by adding into the winner. It is quite incredible what adding into winners and cutting losers for small can do to your PnL. Its really the only way to truly be an exponential trader.
