For some reason I am still doing many many errors within my system. I am taking trades outside of it and failling miserably day in day out. This week and last week I had little edge in the market but so long as my strategy is profitable who gives a fuck if the weeks are bad or not? This is all probbaility and if I am trading with size outside of my edge that is me basically just giving away free money to whoever wants it. I cannot keep doing things like that. Every trade I take that is outside of my system is a trade that will make me not profitable. Period
System: If 3/3 internals are in confluence, then trade in that direction.
Internal trend: Above or Below the Open Price
- VOLD & ADD: NLOD/NHOD back to back 3 candles at least
- Weight: Outside of PM range
- VOLD & ADD: Fakeout OP more than 1 time. Reverse off LOD/HOD and put 3 counter trend candles in
- Weight: Stuck inside PM Range never continuation. Stuck inside OR. Candle close countertrend on OP (if downtrending for first 30m and outside PDR, OR, PMR, but we close above the OP, we are no longer strong and are now neutral.
When 3/3 internals are trending with Strength in the opposite direction of the ES Trend
1. Wait for Liquidity level to be hit
2. V shape entries+stops+targets
- 2m FVG or IR. 1pt above HOD/LOD stop. Target NLOD/NHOD or first ChoCh.
- 5m FVG or IR. 1pt above HOD/LOD stop. Target NLOD/NHOD or first ChoCh
- 5m LH w stop at 1 point above HOD. Target low of prior 5m candle or NLOD/NHOD if in strong trend
When 3/3 internals are trending with Strengths in the same direction of the ES trend
3. After V shape entries+stops+targets
- 2m FVG or IR. Target NLOD/NHOD or first ChoCh
- 5m FVG or IR. Target NLOD/NHOD or first ChoCh
- 5m NHL. Stop 3 points
When 3/3 internals are trending with Weakness in the opposite direction of the ES trend.
1. Wait for liquidity level to hit
- Everything stays the same but rather than aggressive targets we scalp with tighter targets of prior bar L/H as reversals in PA are much more likely to occur.
- NO 5m NHL trades
When 2/3 internals are trending together with strength in the opposite direction of the ES trend.
When 2/3 internals are trending together with strength in the same direction of the ES trend.
When 2/3 Internals are trending together with strength but 1 Internal is neutral
Discretion: 10% discretion is okay. To be 100% fully systematic is impossible but to strive to be so is the goal. If throughout the week I can work within 50% of my system then that is a good week. If the 50% I didnt capture is because I lost that money from doing separate discretion that is very bad. I want my goal to be that I capture 50% because I might miss a few entries, not because I gave away the money doing something else.
Biggest Threat to Edge:
1. Trading outside of edge
2. Trading when 2/3 internals trending
3. Thinking market is strong when its not
- Discretionary ways to frontrun the end of Strength within 3/3 internal trend
1. if 5m NHL entries arent working
2. if Weight breaks OP after trending for a while
THE ONLY TIME WE TRADE IN AN CAPACITY WHATSOEVER IS WHEN 3/3 INTERNALS ARE TRENDING TOGETHER. NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER TRADE UNLESS 3/3 INTERNALS ARE TRENDING TOGETHER. If trading outside of system 1MES is maximum size and 2 trades are maximum attempts. If you trade outside of the 3/3 trend you will never make a fucking dollar in the stock market.
Creating a system and trading outside of it is like working for years to become the best log cabin builder and then when you show up to the job site they tell you that its actually a brick home. It makes no sense. Stay in your fucking lane.
Confluence: Strong Bearish: 9:30-10
Neutral: 10:00- current
1. 2m IR
2. 2m IR
3. 5m IR
Same sort of trade as the 2m IR
4. 5m NHL
- Traded ES 5m NHL here and was the first trade of the day wihin my systen that would have lost. I lost. I then traded this next spike even though there was no system trade whatsoever in this area
-Again more non system trades getting stuck in the MM bait. Market was neutral at 10 so why am I trading it? Makes no sense
Takeaways: IF you trade spots that have no edge, congrats, you are an idiot. There is no reason to trade these zones and the moment your edge is gone, walk away. its not worth it whatsoever and it makes things 10x worse by trying to force growth. Just trade the system and fuck off. its simple.