Overall Session Trade Stats
- 20% win rate but 4.4R so I was still able to walk away with a scratch day after a terrible morning session.
Morning session Trade stats
System: If Internals are trending in the same direction (based on if above or below Open Price (OP), then trade in that same direction targeting liquidity levels.
Trends: 3/3 Internals Trending up
Morning Trades: 4 losers, all shorts
(repeat) System: If Internals are trending in the same direction (based on if above or below Open Price (OP), then trade in that same direction targeting liquidity levels.
Trade #1 (Internal timeframe reference below): This trade was not terrible given that the VOLD ADD and Weight were all looking like they could potentially break to the downside below their open price (White circled areas). In a trade like this I want immediate reaction since it is before 10:00am. There was not an immediate reaction and instead we broke above the previous 2m candle high so I stopped out of the trade for only a 1.5 point loss. This was a trade I am fully okay with taking although I was still breaking my system. Had I been working perfectly in my system I would have noticed that we were using OP as SUPPORT not as a potential area where the trend will break. That was a clear mistake. I am mostly a short biased trader so I do tend to get myself in these situations often and this one I am okay with but in general this should have been a long opportunity not a short one.
Trade #2 and Trade #3 (Internals timeframe reference below): This is where the fuckery starts. Firstly, all 3/3 internals are trending higher and not with low velocity. They are trending extremely strong to the upside. when VOLD is breaking out a full 1 point in only one 2m candle, that is extremely strong. The ONLY reason I was going short was because Weight was looking like it would start a backside. Meanwhile VOLD and ADD are insanely strong. Again, IF ALL INTERNALS ARE TRENDING ABOVE OP YOU FOLLOW THAT TREND. For some reason I cant get this through my thick skull. Both of these trades had zero chance of working out unless I got bailed out by russia nuking someone lol. I also made a mistake and entered the same trade right after stopping out. This is a classic overtrading problem where I get fearful that I top ticked myself so I re-enter immediately. Terrible idea and both of these trades are terrible.
Trade #4: Again, shorting while 3/3 internals are trending higher. Also, again only shorted this because I saw Weight break its high and flush down. THAT IS NOT A REASON TO SHORT THE ES. I was obviously trading in the morning solely based on the Weight which I do think has the most "pull" out of all 3 internals but jesus this is just ridiculous to be going short while the VOLD is nearly doubled its OP, and ADD moving extremely strong off the OP.
1. Using Weight as my main indicator and making trading decisions based off of only 1 internal.
2. Overtrading (trade #3 where I re-entered immediately after stopping out)
3. Taking more than 3 losses short while in a trending environment.
1. The system is there for a reason, if 3/3 internals trending up GO LONG. What is the point of having the internals as a main aspect of my system if I am going to completely neglect and do the opposite of them? This makes zero sense. I do think maybe within the first hour the Weight can actually be used in this manner with some accuracy but that is with many caveats such as: VOLD must be very weak and bouncing at or near OP (today it was extremely strong) ADD must also be weak and bouncing at or near OP (today it was extremely strong). While yes the Weight can be used sometimes for small scalps, its not something you use to short a massive trending move especially with all of the strength amongst the internals. The rule for using Weight as a counter trending catalyst is, IF internals are green BUT very weakly holding above OP AND Weight makes a clear topping pattern based off of swiping either PMH, PDH, or some other significant level, THEN counter trend trading is allowed BUT target must never be more than 2-5 points. Why such a shallow target? If I am basing my trade off of 1/3 internals then its a damn good chance that trade will not have strong continuation.
2. Overtrading: dont do it you dumbass, thats how you fix this one. jk 1 rule I can implement that could possibly help is everytime I take a trade write down what it was as well as the internal direction. After the first trade I will write down 3/3 Internals long, I shorted. After the second trade I will write down, 3/3 Internals long, I shorted. If I am sitting there looking at a notecard that says I already took 2 trades that are clearly against my system then maybe I will be less likely to continue shorting a 3/3 uptrending internals day.
3. NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER TAKE MORE THAN 3 ATTEMPTS ON REVERSALS DURING A TRENDING ENVIRONMENT. This is a cardinal sin. If I do this often overtime im beyond fucked in terms of becoming profitable. It will be impossible. Now with that said, I did go short 1 more time during lunch and of course that trade made me back all of my losses from the morning lol BUT that was no longer a counter trend trade. That was somewhat aligned with the internals.
Afternoon session: 1 Trade short, Winner
Trade: This was somewhat interesting of a setup as I saw the market forming this rounded top and I immediately had severe flashbacks of previous times where we had multiple trending days and seemingly neverending short squeezes back to back to back on the daily. I check the Internals and I saw a massive drop on VOLD. Something I have noticed while watching these internals for the past 6 months is that when VOLD makes a HOD its very important to mark it and make note because very often times if it starts retreating heavily from that HOD and if that happens its much more likely that a reversal can occur. As you see on the white circle on VOLD there was a MASSIVE nearly 2 point drop in it which is extremely significant as that was the largest 2m candle move of the day. Weight was slowly declining looking a lot like someone was gradually selling into nearly all attempts to continue higher or hold a consolidation. ADD was doing nothing particularily interesting but out of all internals ADD is my least important. As you can see I was somewhat scared to take this trade as I was shorting an uptrending day for the 5th time in 1 single day. That is never a good idea but today it worked beautifully and that is for a few reasons. Firstly, I was sized down and gave myself room to let this move a little had I been wrong. Like I said before, 3rd trending day in a row and each day was about 1ATR, many people are fomoing into this long while also getting blown up short, rounded top pattern, VOLD biggest candle of the day and it was receeding from its HOD, Weight making smaller lower low after lower low consistently after making its HOD, ADD doing nothing extravagant such as breaking out with huge candles. For all of those reasons I was starting to get more and more conviction in the trade and I knew the only way I was getting a good win out of this is if I was adding into the pullups since I had remembered many times before that we created this pattern and usually the floor falls out extremely aggressively after its last fakeout for the shorts. That is exactly what happened and I was up nearly 16 points within a matter of 15 minutes so I took my profits and ran away hahhaha. There is an argument that I should leave a runner in this scenario which I dont fully disagree with but I have had nearly 5 over 15 point winners in the past come back and stop me out for breakeven or a loss and on the 5th time of that happening I vowed to never look for more than 15 points again.
1. STOP DEVIATING FROM YOUR SYSTEM. Like the message says at the top, Feeling= False....Data=True. Without holding my system near and dear to my heart and not making sure I am following it perfectly, will be my ultimate demise. I must find ways to make sure at all moments I am following my system. Step 1 of that is every trade I take I will write on a sticky note if I went long or short and the trend of the internals. I will put a checkmark below the trade on the sticky note if it was like my trade #1 ex today where its totally okay to take a loss. I will put an X under the trade if it was a blatant break of my rules.
2. Stop re-entering when you take a loss. Give yourself some time to realize why that was a loss rather than getting emotional. I will make sure that after every loss I at least write it down on my note card so that can at least make me realize if it was within my system or not. I do not want to give myself a "break 10 minutes after loss" rule because if my trade was within my system then I may have to re-enter very quickly and I dont want to miss out on that opportunity. Writing it down will at least make it conscious as the mistake that I made.
3. Sizing down when you are uncertain is a GOOD thing. Making sure you arent going to hit maximum loss by any means necessary IS A GOOD THING.