VOLD: Clear downtrend all day (Strong)
Weight: Unclear trend because stuck inside of OR nearly the entire day even after the large selloff that occurred during lunch
ADD: Downtrend (Strong)
*** Today was an example of high Internal confluence. Weight commonly moves higher as ADD moves lower as the larger participants are positioning themselves. When they are both in confluence I would say this was an A++ setup where you should size into ever pop and hold for aggresssive targets but they were not. Even though they werent, VOLD combined with price action at the tops on Weight (massive sellers just waiting to fill a position), and ADD being extremely strong downtrend, this was an A day. I should have been more aggressive early on and had I been more aware during lunch maybe I wouldve been here to take some small size on the 60 point backside.
Trade 1-3: Out of the entire day (at least for my system) 9:35-10:00am yielded the highest opportunities. All of these trades were my attempts to aggressively short the low of the day at the open because my system was screaming to do so. To preface this, I HATE shorting into the LOD as I just love trading reversals and chasing moves at their extensions is something im extremely uncomfortable doing. The first and second trades were me testing it out because I had noticed the VOLD was decreasing and with Strength given the rules I wrote about in yesterdays DRC. It was moving below OP nearly every candle making a new LOD, also it was decreasing at a rate of more than 0.25pts per 2m candle. When the VOLD is moving that strong and the ADD is moving massively within its first 3 candles and also making a new LOD on eery new 2m candle, that is extreme strength to the downside. I shorted 2 times right near the open and the first one I stopped out on for +0.25 and the second one I made maybe 1.75 points. I then proceeded to watch it melt about 8 points lower than my exit. This is the time where I should be adding and looking for bigger breakdowns within the first 30 minutes because anytime all 3 internals are shooting to the downside, I need to get as aggressive as possible, sizing into the trade, and having aggressive targets. Once I get one outsized win then I can scalp new 5m candle highs and wait to see if the internals slow down at all like they did right around 10:00am. The 3rd trade was a new 5m candle high and I shorted it looking for just a scalp because I was shorting directly into the lows which is so against my natural way of trading. It worked and I made 2.25 points and I was up about 4 points on the day. Again, at the time of the 3rd trade the internals were still moving down very strong although Weight was starting to break to the upside in its attempt to hold its open price. Eventually Weight did break out strongly so I stopped shorting because that is the time that my system begins to be lower probability. right at 10 the VOLD also increased by about a half point in 4 minutes so that was another sign to maybe back off the shorts. Although that happened I still thought that possibly the Weight would fakeout these highs and the VOLD ADD would still slowly decrease throughout the session.
How do I get bigger and more aggressive in these trades?
1. When the system is Extreme to the downside, this means you can easily hold for aggressive targets and add into green pops. Where exactly would I have done that?
from 9:35-9:50 3/3 internals are trending in same direction with strength
This is the exact timeframe 9:35-9:50 where all 3 internals are trending very strongly together
This is the only 5m candle that made a new high but waiting for 5m candle new highs may be too conservative sometimes in this scenario. I did take this entry in my ES trades above but I only scalped it for 2 points instead of holding for the possible break of LOD which wouldve been over 5 points for a scalp. If I held it wouldve been 10 points. Again during that 5m candle high all Internals are trending down with strength. That is when I need to get extremely aggressive.
This is the first 8 minutes of the market open which is the best spot arguably for the short move of the day because it gave about 7-10 points pretty rapidly. I actually did short this candle but I stopped for a scratch. I stopped out of pure fear that we would rip higher which is ridiculous but trading close to the open after we just broke the ONL is very scary to me. Had I done this before maybe I wouldve been able to hold it but Weight was also moving higher and it was already above its ONH which also sketched my out. I think next time I just need to be able to hold to my stop if I am trading during a time where my system is A+. Had I held that trade and even better, added into it. Then I wouldve made at least 5 points with 2 contracts.
Trades 1-7: All of these trades were on very small size as I was suspicious that the floor would fall out eventually and it would be so fast that the only way to trade it is either chase or get in early. I tried to get in many times and I was up about 5 points on 2 micros at least 3 times and stopped for breakeven. Looking back its easy to see that I was trading in a consolidation. Until the VOLD breaks the LOD again and the Weight breaks throught that floor its been using as support all morning, this was not going to move lower. I really wish I wouldve waited longer today with this trade and been adding on the way up but truth of the matter is that I really had no clue if that would happen or not and most of the time trading the lunch session can be a bad thing for me. I want to make sure I focus my time on the time that my system was meant for which is the first hour of trading. After that it will lag heavily behind the ES and if I want to trade something price action based on ES with no internal help then I need to use small size as that is somewhat outside of the timeframe of my system.
Trade: This was not a trade that I normally because I do not trade the NQ. As a result I only used 1 micro just because this was such an egregious example of an imbalance that I have ever seen. If you look at the screenshots below you will see YM RTY NQ and a ticker that has YM + NQ + RTY + ES and NQ was breaking out of its HOD while every other ticker was breaking down through the low of day. I have only seen this happen a few times this aggressively but I took 1 MNQ short just because it was a rare opportunity. Made 16 points which isnt bad I guess but nothing too special since outside of my normal system.
1. As always work within the system. If the data says go hard then you have to pull the trigger. You must learn to be aggressive when its go time. That means adding when it feels wrong, entering in spots that feel wrong, and targeting spots that feel wrong. Data is everything and today was a clear example of everything saying GO but I was too scared. To reiterate, 9:35-9:50 3/3 Internals moving with strength lower as well as outside of days range with momentum to go on high volume. This is just begging for continuation. From 9:35-9:50 it was about a 14 point move lower if I stopped out at the break of a previous 5m candle bodies high. Lets say I dont enter perfectly and miss both entry and exit by 2 points so the total move I can capture is 10 then also I will have to avg at a lower price. Lets say I can get 9 points with 2 ES contracts. That is more than enough money for me given my avg green day is only about $250. That is not beyond my means whatsoever and this setup happens about 1 time per week. If I can nail it once per week that will give me a great cushion to push harder on other days.