- Not my typical stats of around 35% win rate and 2R minimum. Today I had a very hard time trusting my system and I paid the price for it.
Trades 1-3: System said to go short pretty much out of the gate as VOLD ADD both started trending lower right at the open. Weight was also going lower and below the PM low but then it ripped back up and faked out the HOD before actually turning lower. This was a problem for me because I had strong confidency in the short happening from ADD VOLD but with Weight moving like that I was very weary. I didnt want to miss the move so I was shorting and stopping out at HOD multiple times. Finally when I got the top of the move, I sold it so fast for only 2 points and had I held the trade to the actual target I wouldve made back all my losses plus been nicely in the green. I then proceeded to miss the next lower high short opportunity as I was nervous to short again and watch us slowly breakout of HOD over and over and over. I think its apparent that I was neglecting my system as I should have been shorting the whole move lower but the only problem is that I like to short new 5m highs as part of the system and for that reason I had to watch us melt nearly 30 points before I was able to trade it. I should have been expecting this turn more and been patient for a liquidity swipe then use that top as my stop. I couldve easily looked for a new LOD and made a killing, adding into the trade but instead I just stopped once I made back 50% of my losses. This is troubling as I am clearly scared to trade my system because of the size that I am using. I either need to be okay with bigger pnl swings and take the trades the way they are designed or I need to size down. there is not an inbetween. There were 2 spots later on near LOD where we did make new 5m candle highs and I avoided the trades because I was scared to lose. Again neglecting my system and negating the fact that the objective data infront of my face told me to short.
New entry criterium: If we are at the top of a reversal then as we know, fakeouts are the most likely to occur and melting is not common so once a HOD is possibly put in we must short as close tot hat HOD as possible and use it as a risk level looking for a new lower low as passive target then a new LOD as aggressive target. If we open and are pushing higher but just bounced off the PML at 8:00 and are about to fakoue the PDC OP and previous higher high, that is definitely a zone where we should reverse as that is where most longs get destroyedfrom chasing and most shorts get stopped out. Once that HOD candle was put in and we sold off I shouldve been looking for any retest of that candle as a place to get back in while risking that HOD. I could have also shorted the retest of the trendbreak as we were officially moving lower with strength at that time. at 10:06 exactly, we had all 3 internals moving lower with strength and there were 2 5m higher highs I couldve shorted for a continuation move back to LOD and had I taken those it wouldve been over 10 points which wouldve easily put me heavily in the green on the day.
- Luckily today I got a really nice MES trade to cushion the blow of the terrible ES trades I took.
I had just finished setting up something for my airbnb and I came back to see that we had been doing one of those "slow grind big green candle that gets faded but continues to slow grind" price action. This was so typical of a move that would get faded late day as the buyers were never really there and it was all just a pullup for institutions to continue filling their short positions. This was never going to break out back to HOD so I was ready to get in and I shorted very nicely on first entry then I added a little prematurely but I noticed VOLD was breaking its trendline and also ES was attemtping to do the same. I was prepared for the first break to be a strong false move to stop out early shorts ad that is what happened but for some reason instead of adding I just held my position because I was scared. I should have added then taken 2 at my target of 2m candle high break and then held the last one for either breakeven or LOD break that was going to eventually occur.