If you're looking to buy, sell (if you got those community shares) or short Reddit at it's IPO, this video is for you.

First, mark the date:

Thursday, March 21, it will IPO on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol RDDT, typically IPO's launch around 10 AM EST

Here's what we'll discuss:

1. Reddit's own WallStreetBets doesn't like the IPO and what's to short it, but why?

  • 15m users voted to short it
  • lack of profitability and competitive issues
  • volunteer mods early buy program, big employee stock sales, AI ambitions..
    • listed as a risk factor, on S-1, as there is no holding period
  • 8% of the float is going to "redditers"
    • not locked up, so they can sell right away
    • similar to Robinhood allowing the same to it's retail buyers

2. Finding from the IPO filing Form = SEC Form S-1

  • Is the initial registration form for new securities required by the SEC for public companies that are based in the U.S
  • ARPU 3.42, very low compared to comps
    • $3.42 vs $40+ FB, $24 TWTR and $22 IG and $14 Linkedin
      • NOTES: 98% media ads rev
  • Wants to raise $748 mill in IPO through sale of 22m shares
  • Currently, Reddit IPO sees 4-5x oversubscription
    • eyes $6.5 billion valuation
  • 73m daily active user, online communities called sub-Reddits
  • 20% rev growth 2024 (this is very strong) typically closer to 5% YoY
  • Main Rev 98% through advertising and now also AI training data sets
  • Additional Info:
    • Reddit cashes in on AI gold rush with $203M in LLM

3. 2023 Big IPO's and how they are doing

    • 2 below 2 above IPO price
    • All dipped below IPO price; for at least several weeks
  • Slow IPO market currently, but it is heating up

4. What the all-in Podcast thinks about the IPO

E168: Can Google save itself? Abolish HR, AI takes over Customer Support, Reddit IPO teardown (All-in Podcast main points)

  • Business flatlined, 5% growth YoY, last 2 quarters saw a bigger boom, worried valuation is at this "random" boom level. And they don't know why. If that stops could be bad, Reddit needs a good answer for that.
    • 2023 rev $804m up 21% YoY
    • 2023 -$91 min profit, So NET it's losing money.. bad for this macro env..
      • Free cashflows neg
  • DAUg, 76m up 27% Y0Y
  • Weekly active unique (“WAUq”) metric and daily active unique (“DAUq”)
  • ARPUissue
  • 5-7x multiple puts them at this $6.5b rev

5. My unprofessional price target


Reddit IPO vs WallStreetBets

#IPO #Reddit #WallStreetBets




Reddit Quarterly ARPU


Redit Revenue


Reddit Quarterly Average DAUq




Reddit Quarterly Rev and FCF



Non S-1 Pics:

Bloomberg US IPO MArket charts


 Average revenue per user (ARPU) of social media apps worldwide as of 2022