September 19th, 2022
1st Trade: Short Trend Reversal
Eh this was a nice trade only from the fact that I kept my loses extremely minimal ($7) and bailed the moment I realized that we were probably a little early for a true Trend Reversal to occur. I really was only looking for a scalp here so to only lose 7 bucks is pretty nice. I dont really see a problem with this trade other than the fact that maybe the 5 minute trend was a little too strong to go for a reversal just yet. Yeah I just checked and the 5 minute trend was 76 degrees which is conveniently 1 degree above where I said last week which is the mark for "avoid." Anything below 75 is good and anything above is bad.
2nd Trade: Short Trend Reversal
Here is a much better and cleaner version of the last trade. I waited again for that clean entry where we broke the uptrend. Once it was broken I took the full move for a great little scalp trade which took me from -$7 to +$12. All things considered I think theres not much I could say went wrong in this trade although there are always ways to improve. I do like how I wasnt really holding for a big breakdown just because of the macro chart. On the 15 minute we seemed quite bullish espeiclaly because the Bond ETF $HYG is wayyyy more bullish and a lot higher than the SPY is right now. We broke to new lows in premarket and didnt get even close to testing them at the open and we pushed really hard at the open so I do like how I was only looking for a small move and not a huge breakdown type of trade.
3rd Trade: Long Trend Continuation
Ah it really does feel pretty nice to take a long trade and have it work out very well. On this trade I was somewhat breaking my rules of only going short but when I was looking at the daily chart I really was leaning heavily towards the market moving higher today. We have fed on wednesday and the 15 minute chart is clearly a bottom formation. We broke to lows on the last sessions and then spiked late day for a huge green move. Today we break to new lows in premarket then hold that bottom immediately and push higher. I knew that momentum would probably come back in so I took this clean Trend Continuation trade where I was looking for a higher low to form above at least the opening pullback that happened before 10:30. This was somewhat of a demand zone trade as well because we had buyers step in in this same exact zone on friday on that late day push higher. Pretty fuckin clean. This took me from +$12 to +$31.
4th Trade Short Trend Reversal
This trade fuckin hurt me so badly. I missed the first potential entry and I thought I missed the entire trade. If I wouldve takent that first entry I probably wouldve lost on it unless I took my profits perfectly at the break of the previous low which is what I probably wouldve looked for. I took the retest of that zone and had (what I thought) a really good entry, but moments later this little fucker spiked and hit my stop (to the penny) then flashed down without me. This trade really bummed me out because I was decently green at around $35 and just wanted that one more win to give me a larger than average green day but I was just a little bit too early. My thesis on the trade was spot on, I thought we would break down on this area and start a trend reversal, but we did that after one last fakeout to the upside. The only way I couldve walked away with money on this trade is if 1 of 2 scenarios happened; 1. I had a wider stop and let it sit at the high of day rather than high of the last candle. OR 2. I re-entered when the bearish engulfing candle momentum shift pattern occurred right after that spike. As you can see above, we broke the high by maybe 10 cents total, then we flash down through and give a really fast breakdown with zero signs of recovery. I think the smarter thing out of these 2 options is to probably place my stop higher (HOD) and then plan to add into the trade when I become correct and we get a clear break to the downside. This is a unique day though becuase we were going to move higher today no matter what so its clear that when breakdowns occur on green days that they are much harder to capture. They will fake out much more often and then eventually break down from lack of bidding then fail hard with no retest of the break zone. Missing this trade sucked so badly plus it dented my P/L back to only up 16$ (after fees). which really pissed me off because now I am basically at a scratch day after using this trade to allow me to fuck off for the rest of the day and to put me up nicely. I was planning on being up at least 50 after this but being only up 16 really just angered me a lot. Mostly, because I was right more than anything else. I just had poor execution of the trade which is something I can always improve on. Its nice to be annoyed from a place of being green so I am grateful for that but to expect a nice little win to end the day then it becomes a loss, really put me into revenge mode.
5th Potential Trade :(MISSED) Short Trend Reversal $TSLA
This is the only screenshot I have of this so my bad but HOLY FUCK. I saw that tesla was creating a Trend Reversal pattern and I wanted to get in on this failed rally before it broke down. I found a decently priced put with a low delta and hit the bid. I shit you not this fucking thing came within 2 cents of my entry then spikes down without me. Again now this is the 2nd time of the day where I was right but my entry was wrong. This triggered me even more now and I was really pissed off because this trade wouldve taken me back to above $+45. After I review trades ill have a little talk with myself about how im trading my p/l cuz goddd damn the way this pissed me off and I searched for another trade is actually quite scary. Although, the next trade was still a clean setup but again my entry was a little early.
5th Trade: Short Trend Reversal $AAPL
This was really a nice setup for a trend reversal to the downside but just fucking ew why the fuck am I trading the shittiest large cap of all time in $AAPL. Firstly, its stupid to ever short apple just because u basically think ur some contrarian genius but in reality ur a fucking dipshit fighting the best company to ever exist with the largest amount of big money in it. Fuck trading apple. And Apple is so fucking choppy because of how many shares it has but either way i really cant be angry at how this trade went. I took the retest of the breakdown but I was a little early on it. I didnt really wait for a clean retest of that trendline plus AAPL was a lot stronger than the SPY today and was the only green ticker out of the Big 5. Apple itself was holding the SPY higher and it is just not smart to short something taht is this much stronger than the spy. As you can see this thing spiked way higher than my entry right after I sold it. Kinda lucky. This took me from +18 to +31.
6th Trade: Trend Reversal $SPY
7th Trade: Trend Reversal $SPY
Ahh another trade where I am right but too early. Took this entry on #6 basically attempting this trade as a trend reversal/demand zone trade. I entered this one basically risking 15 dollars and using the previous low as some sort of stop. I likes how on the 15 minute chart (a couple examples above) was holding a really nice bottom pattern and I saw how we tried to break down lower at 384 and we spiked right back up through that zone. Sadly my first entry was really early and I got stopped out and went from +31 to +13. Luckily I Was so pissed off from being right at being too early on that last short I took (trade #4) that I immediately re-entered and risked my days profits to either have a decent green day or to end at break even. I think there is more value in being breakeven/decen green than there is in just having a scratch day. I dont care to be up only 1 tiny win on the day, Id rather push it a little and see if I can still find clean setups. This was a very clean setup for a demand zone long but, is not the cleanest setup for a trend reversal long. Only reason I will classify this as a trend reversal and a trend continuation trade is because it depends only on what time frame you are looking at. On the 15 minute chart this is a trend continuation where we held a higher lowand continued higher. On the 2 minute timeframe we are possibility of trend reversal because we consolidated sideways at vwap and sitting right at demand from friday. I do like this trade a lot because I set my stops and just let it go, but ideally I shouldve been more aware of why I was taking this trade. I was only basing this off of demand and not really off of anything else. Sideways action is not what you want to see for a trend continuation or a trend reversal. its much cleaner to get real moves and not this ranging bullshit. I simply thought that we would break above the ranging area and move higher. Not the best thesis but nonetheless I had a great win on this trade where I took over a full point and only had about a 25 delta contract and made I think 28 or so dolllars from it. It took me from ~+13 to +41 on the day.
This is pretty interesting. We have a clean 15 minute trend break retest trend reversal setup happening on the micro chart (5-25 days). This constituted a clean long trade which I took on trade #7. Although, I really wish I wouldve taken that trade for this reason rather than me just thinking "oih its a demand zone." I hate that phrasing. I want to know exactly where and when and what price action happens every single time I take a trade. I dont want to just think "oh demand will come in here" and take a trade. This is trillions of dollars, not one single person gives a fuck about where demand and supply are. Those things exist only because the price action allows them to. If I can find a way to really nail these in swing perspectivie as well as a daily perspective I could really crush many markets.
I cant end this review without bringing up the fact that I was watching my p/l allll fucking day today. I was annoyed from losing on the 4th trade and it really put me into a dangerous mindset. I think the TSLA and AAPL trading puts to the downside was not necessarily wrong but in theory I only even looked at them for a trade because I missed the SPY. There is a clear difference between finding a trade and seeing a setup and I think that because I am trading the SPY then many tech names will naturlaly lag behind it so it really shouldnt be out of the realm of ideas that I can take a different ticker when I miss the clean spy setup just because again they are folllowing the fuckin spy anyways so why not. The TSLA trade wouldve been fucking awesome to nail and I probably wouldve fucked off if I did win on that but trading AAPL was purely revenge. Luckily the setup was still there so I didnt really do anything wrong while inside of the trade but the mindset of taking taht was out of a clea fear based head. I need to remember there is so much fucking money in this market and every single day I will have the opportunity to make life changing money. I cannot be taking a loss or missing 1 trade and thinking its the end of the world. That is just stupid and not what a professional would do. A professional would just sit back and relax, not become angry at some stupid ass adult video game. With that being said though I do think that I should not keep the idea of trading other tickers out of my mind becuase I think that since my win rate is much higher from finding better EV trades, that I can somewhat branch out a little bit and look for setups that are similar but among other names. If the EV is this good then I can still learn about other tickers by taking other trades nad I wont require some huge downturn like it normally does when you change your strategy.
I was also watching my P&L all day yesterday (going down). Nice work overall though, +$41 sure beats my -$487.01
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