September 20, 2022
1st Trade: Trend Reversal Long
Pretty awesome trade right here. I saw that we had strong support from the last 2 sessions and was leaning long before the day even started so naturally I was looking for failed moves lower where the sellers were about to die out. Ill show the 15m chart below:
See how we have this nice reverse head and shoulder formation happening? So I waited for the false breakdown and the move to go higher which worked out pretty perfectly. I took my profits quickly too because clearly holding a long in a move like this is about as sketchy as it gets. (more on this later) So I took the initial trend break and retest zone with about a 40 delta contract which is somewhat big for me when going long. Then we got that nice push higher with a break of vwap and I sold right at the top near the initial low that occurred at 9:34 right at the beginning of the session. I knew this would act as strong resistance and it did. One really cool indication that I dont normally use for trading but I used on this trade was that fake bottom (oval area) that tried to go lower and failed epicly. It took out the previous lower high and then I knew that the momentum has shifted. Let me show the reason why I took this:
This was yesterdays price action and it was super similar to what happened today. See how we took out that high and made a new high then failed immediately? Yeah I was in this trade short before that move and that spike kicked me out of the trade just for me to watch it fly down without me in an epic manner. Today I noticed the same exact pattern but to the long side. Again an awesome example of how studying helps so much with trading. I wouldve never even noticed this pattern if I did not intensely study yesterdays price action when the day was over. Super cool
See all these lower highs and lower lows forming once we broke down from this uptrend? These are decent continuation pattern trades that I was not at my desk to take, although I still probably wouldnt have taken them just because of the buy pressure that has been happening in these zones for the last 2 sessions. I really didnt expect this move to go this much lower on a day like today especially before a fed meeting that happens tomorrow. Unfortunately I missed them but that doesnt mean I cant learn from them. These made consecutive lower highs and lower lows which constitute a setup for continuation. You take the breakdown of the failed rally IF and ONLY IF that high is below a previous low. The best one was the 2nd arrow on the right side of the chart. See how we held clearly below that previous lower low and then continued downwards? that is perfect. Then the 3rd arrow also is actually a little bit cleaner since it tested that exact previous lower low and then continued downwards. Let me emphasize that these trades are only good IF you take the profit at the break of a new lower low. You can probably hold a partial for continued move lower or dpeending on what the daily is doing you could hold but in general its always the smarted to take this trade with a target of an attempted lwoer low.
SWING TRADE I FUCKED UP:
Wow what a fucking bummer this was. Again I really should never be telling anyone what kind of trades im taking or how well im doing in trading because the market makers are fucking listening and that is not a theory its a fact hahahha. I was up over 20% on this trade with an awesome entry and a pretty decent target exit but I think this is why I dont swing trade. I took that low once we popped and indicated a trend change. If you look at the macro downtrend (blue dotted line) we also broke that yesterday and then we were retesting that zone today which is another confluencing factor to take a long trade. I snagged it and held with a target price of 387 since that was the strongest previous supply that I could find. Sadly I was up $65 on this trade and close it out for an $8 loss. I mean all things considered its really not a bad trade with a bad plan but my execution was poor in that I shouldve just taken the tiny 20 or 30 dollar profit when the uptrend that we were in broke back to the downside. Also I shouldve been more aware and vigilant that WE ARE IN A RECESSION LOL. If you take long trades YOU DO NOT HOLD THEM FOR BIG MOVES. Take the profit and get the fuck out of that trade because again WE ARE IN A RECESSION. THIS IS A BEAR MARKET. Do I have to say that again or we good???
I feel your pain, everytime I hold longer in this market I make a winning trade into a loosing one. So damn stressful. Can't wait for that market where holding longer isn't punishing but extremely rewardful (on avg).
Are you sure you want to delete "September 20th, 2022 (+$30)"?