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Reflect & Market Overview | Week 9
Reflection on last week's lesson
Last week, "Focus on Setup Quality & Double Check Swings | Y2023W8", my day trading was okay but my swing trading was one red day after another always putting me at some really big red days and for the first time EVER 8 red days in a row. No major surprise due to the SPY having a massive sell-off last week after the break-in frontside trend (view below).
I'll start studying my MOMO portfolio on the 1m timeframe and 5m/daily timeframe. More on that to come.
SPY Trend
$SPY starting to find support again. I wouldn't be surprised if we chopped around the $390 - $400 for a bit.
Gameplan - | Day Trading | Swing Trading | Crypto Trading
Important Macro Scheduled Events
https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar
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Former Gappers & Current Sector Plays
View post: Former Top Gainer (gappers) Stocks On Watch, On Ice, & RIP (adding new tickers here throughout the week)
The current sector plays (on TOS watchlist mark all sector plays in blue):
- AI. Anything related to ChatGPT or implementing their own AI.
- $NVDA, $BZFD are 2 good examples
- Space. Popular topic as spaceX makes headline news almost daily.
- $SPCE, $BAER, $LLAP, $SIDU
- EV. EV has had its run but a lot of EV stocks are depreciated and now seeing renewed action.
- Including batteries/mining, electrical
- $DCFC
- SPAC's.
- As of Friday last week due to $LUNR a SPAC that went from $8.55 to $136
- $MLEC, $RNER, $GNS
This Week's Broader Gameplan
Macro is not so busy this week. Going to size down swing trades back to $3k, unless multi-timeframe / setup alignment. No bigger size for larger caps. That cost me a lot last week. It throws everything out of wack.
Monday Feb 27
General Gameplan
Whatever it takes to break the red trend. If that's no trading or stopping after the first win.
Macro / SPY Observations & News
None making me too worried about today.
Live Record (Wrap-up & Trade Reviews In Video Description)
Tuesday Feb 28
General Gameplan
Yesterday I was able to get back green. Also, interesting observation for Feb. All my stats where the ticker is below daily 180 SMA or below VWAP or below the Former 5m candle, are net red. While above are net green. Makes sense I'm a long-biased momo trader. Lesson: Know your strategy. Trade your strategy.
In a nutshell, focus on the momo and forget the rest. Also, stop buying high on breakouts
$ILAG "Smart home"
$RNER "SPAC"
Macro / SPY Observations & News
No macro drops today!
Supreme Court discussing Student Loan Forgiveness. I don't think the market cares too much about it but overall quite a polarizing topic. While Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made a surprise visit to Ukraine to demonstrate that the US supports the country economically might.
Live Record (Wrap-up & Trade Reviews In Video Description)
Wednesday Mar 1
General Gameplan
Yesterday was super nice locking in another green day. I want to keep my swing size between 3-4k for now unless it's a multi-setup alignment. But I need to be sizing my day trades up to $5 and $10k. I'm ready for it I just need to trade less nonsense.
Made new updates to my trading times:
Examples below use biggest green day = $10k
I trade from 7-11 AM EST but I stop as soon as I’m at my Profit Target (PT) and the move I’m trading that got me there ends OR Max Loss (ML). This allows me to keep trading a winning move and get a new biggest green day while reducing giving back profits due to fatigue.
Example: I make $3700 by 7:30 AM EST. Then I lock it up. Instead of trading another 3.5 hours.
PT & ML is 25% of the biggest green day. Unless I’m red on the month then it’s cut 50%. This allows me to reduce p&l volatility and bleeding until I’m back in flow.
Example: PT & ML = $2,500
Macro / SPY Observations & News
10 AM news drops but it's not major. Still, the sooner I can wrap up the better.
Apparently, there is a major corporate exodus in Chicago. Yikes. Hong kong lifts the longest covid restrictions in the world today. RIP to all the Greece train victims.
Review
Thursday Mar 2
General Gameplan
Yesterday was a total nightmare. Green day trading but 3x max loss on my swings. Holy crap. Red on the month means half-size max loss and profit targets. Period. (Realized this late on the day when I could have already called it).
Big moves yesterday HPX, ONCS, CDIO. Maybe today the dust will settle a bit or more momo? Most likely something will pop but it could be a lot of traps today.
Macro / SPY Observations & News
No big macro drops.
Review
Lately, we've been seeing more momo and specifically multi-day runners. So how do you know which stocks have better chances of having that second or 3rd big green day? That's what will look at. Momentum stocks to buy commonalities. A lot more than I thought there would be.
Held highs: $CDIO $LLAP $ARBE $LUNR $DCFC $BZFD $SERA $GNS $MSGM $CVNA
Notes: 30% PB max from HOD but consolidates at around 15-20% into close, pre-market gaps, first stair, trick to trade after market open, looking for first stairs, strength into afternoon
Didn't hold highs: $MLEC $GENE $BWV $CING $AUVI
Notes: Failing pre-market,
Lesson wait for mid-day consolidation to start accumulating off of support.
Friday Mar 3
General Gameplan
It's Friday. Let's try to end it green as soon as possible. I'm also red on the week/month/year so half daily PT and MS. Plus it's Franzi's birthday today so no need to be extra exhausted.
Macro / SPY Observations & News
10 AM micro drop but not so major
Live Record (Wrap-up & Trade Reviews In Video Description)
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Insider Review
At the end of every week don't forget to join us for our weekly group calls where we break down the biggest lessons of verified traders followed by Q&A sessions. Full playlist here: Insiders Trading Podcast
Quick Overview
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My Lesson
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My Notes From Other Insiders
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News | Know Your Macro!
I have about 30 tabs that auto-open when I click my "NEWS" bookmark folder which contains a bunch of news sites, portfolio analytics, charts, upcoming US gov reports and more things along that line. One app I'm always a big fan of and complete read through is the MorningBrew daily newsletter. I find it hits most topics every day.
