Here are the key takeaways from your Friday, May 16, 2025 trading notes, organized into actionable insights, performance review, and psychological/contextual observations:

✅ Performance & Risk Management

• Net Result: Finished the week green, up +1.75R over two trading days, risking 1% ($25) per trade.

• Win Rate:

  • Win: 25%

  • Breakeven: 25%

  • Loss: 50%

• Success Factor: Risk management was the key reason for ending the week positive, despite low win rate.

• Next Step: Increasing risk to 2% per trade next week, but with a plan to halve the risk if the first trade is a loser— good adjustment for scaling up cautiously.

🧠 Psychological & Strategic Insights

• You've had a persistent short bias due to higher-timeframe OPTX/MNQ bearish FVGs — but have been consistently squeezed out, suggesting a misalignment with market trend/structure.

• Today’s profitable long trade was a playbook setup based on 50% overnight range + discount area, which you already journaled the day before. This reinforces that journaling is providing forward edge.

• You're learning to trust your own trade ideas, even if they go against your recent bias (i.e., short bias).

🔍 Execution Lessons

1. Stop Loss Management

   • First trade went against you with a violent move on 10AM data drop — couldn’t place stop in time.

   • Solution Going Forward: Use OCO bracket orders or set stop before limit entry.

   • Had an OCO been used, the loss would’ve been half — concrete evidence for this operational tweak.

2. Displacement Levels vs Zones

   • Noticed that clear displacement levels on M5 work better than “displacement zones” (when a wick widens the area without clean continuation).

   • Actionable Rule: Avoid trading into ambiguous zones. Prioritize solid, clean displacement levels.

3. Patience & Confirmation

   • Despite doubts, you held your second long, which eventually delivered 7.6R.

   • Shows growing maturity in trusting setups, even amid uncertainty.

🔮 Forward Outlook / Prep for Monday

• New OPTX monthly candle opens Monday — watching closely with Power of 3 (PO3) theory in mind.

• If market opens higher, and hits bearish orderblocks, expect potential for short opportunity.

• If market pushes lower first, this could be a manipulation leg before a larger continuation higher.

• You’ve mapped out both bullish and bearish PO3 scenarios, which sets you up to be adaptable.

🧩 Summary of Takeaways

Let me know if you'd like a revised checklist or playbook rules based on today's discoveries.

FRI MAY 16, 2025

11:07AM: Interesting session thus far, I have currently taken 1 loss on the session, and I am in my 2nd and last trade of the day.

For about 2 weeks now, I have been trading with a bearish bias, because of the monthly and OPTX bearish fair value gaps. But over and over again, short have continuously been getting squeezed out of position. And I find it quite comical, that I bascially took the trade of the day setup today, that I journaled yesterday, which was a simple 50% of the overnight ranges discount area, for a move higher. Being that, there wasnt any pre market high sweep, to potentially setup the short playbook trade.

With that being said, the 50% overnight range discount trade, was the first presented trade opportunity for me on the day. The reason I took my first trade was because upon the close of the 4H candle, leading into 9AM, there was a bullish fair value gap. So that was my main focus, as well at the discount level. Right before the 9:30 open, I saw price beginning to tap into the bullish 4 hour fair value gap, but we hadent yet tagged the discount level. So therefore, i thought, and expected that we would see a sell side liquidity grab in price, before any potential move higher, 

SO , there was a bullish 1 minute fair value gap presented, right at the drop of 10AM green folder data, which by the way, it reacted as if it was red folder data, in terms of volatility. And it dropped substantially, into my limit order, but way further in price than I was comfortable accepting. And I didnt have any time to set a stoploss. SO, I think because of today, I either have to start creating OCO bracket orders, or, placing the stoploss, prior to the limit order entry that Im trying to get. 

Anyother thing that I have noticed about price, is that when I have a specific displacement level that is created on the 5 minute chart, and it wicks that displacement level. and created an even wider zone that needs further displacement confirmation, I have noticed more times than not, it seems to fail more than work. 

SO, it may be more benefitial in the future, to not trade displacement zones, and rather, trade solid displacement levels.

I have really only seen and remember a displacement zone working once or twice. 

Had the OCO bracket order been in placve on my first long, I would have been immediately stopped out, for half the loss size. This is why I am happy, that I decided to trade MES, with very small size, until I can prove that Im building a buffer before I start increasing size. It seems that the market is in a period where its more about defense than offense at the moment, so we want to prioritize, not loosing money over making money. 

In terms of now, I am currently still in my second long trade, and im really not entirely confident that the trade is going to work out. But I have had a short bias consistently now. And time and time again, I have been getting short squeezed out. So this trade is just a discount playbook trade, that I journaled from yesterday.

I figured that we were simply trading to the extremity bullish 4 hour fair value gap, and that a template 5 minute and 1 minute chart displacement, and silver bullet entry might suffice. 

But I was stopped out, all the way to the london low, after NY opened at 7AM, and swept the long high. Yet, asia low is still intact. SO I am now anticipating that the NY high and London high will now be swept. As yesterdays overnight and premarket low, wasnt swept yesterday, so I am assuming that the same thing will apply in todays session, that the asia low will remain intact. If thats the case, London low getting swept and potentially holding, would mark and even deeper extremity that price can trade to, that I will have to keep an eye on in the future. 

I have placed a 3 candle low stoposs on the 1 minute chart, and again, I have a gut feeling I will be stopped out, if this trade doesnt deliver bullish orderflow soon. it is currently 11:25AM. 

If this trade hits, it will be a 7.6R trade, and I will end the week slightly green. Which I am totally cool with. 

4:34PM: THE LONG TRADE WORKED! We were able to finish the week green, and up 1.75R in 2 trading days, as we were only risking $25 a trade which is 1% of the $2,500 drawdown limit. Which isnt the worst, factoring in that we didnt have the best win rate on the week. Really only winning 1 time on the week. We could have covered yesterday for a win also, but we passed up the win for a breakeven, trying to target a deeper downside price which didnt hit. Our win rate was only 25%, our breakeven trades were 25% and our losing trades were 50%. SO risk management is entirely responsible for this green week.

We succeeded in surviving, building a level of confidence in pulling the trigger and not hesistating. And we will be going into next week, raising our risk to 2% a trade. And halfing the position immediately if we lose. 

I will have to approach monday with caution, being that the new OPTX candle is opening, and with power of 3 theory, even if we are likely to continue uptrending higher in this market, we likely need to experience a downside manipulation move first before we continue. SO I will have that in mind approaching mondays trading session. And I also have the OPTX bearish orderblocks on both MES and MNQ on watch as well. Because if the market opens higher upon the GLOBEX open, there is a higher likely hood, that the next month can be a downtrending market and reverse at these levels. 

So those are the 2 different scenarios that can play out in my mind, with the power of 3 as the context for the OPTX candle that will be opening. Because if we open higher, and tap the orderblock, that can significantly increase the chances of a stronger short trade.