Grade: A-

Goals: Be more selective and raise winning %

Reminders/Aphorisms: 

  • Don't fight the trend;
  • Be patient, take good set-ups
  • Respect at least 2:1 R/R

Overview: Yesterday the SPY had a sell-off in the morning and then pretty much gap filled up and bounced between the 374-375 level and the 371-372 level. This morning we are opening higher on jobs data. When looking at the larger time frames the 200 EMA on the Weekly chart is at 367.67. We rarely if ever drop below this so we will likely see a green or ranging day today. Also, we are right at the downtrend from August on the daily cahrt. We are opening up $5 on the SPY, right above the 374-375 zone that was created a couple of days ago. Potential scenarios:

1) If we open about 374-375 we will likely move back to this level at open before we have a bigger move up. We have a semi-level at 383 (this was where the end of day drop started 2 days ago and then higher at 384-385 (which may be too big a move). Likely we will grind up to 383 and consolidate around there.

2) If we do have a bearish move, we will likely retest 371-372 and then reverse and go long. I do not see an extended downtrend today. The next level below that was at 368-369.

Trade Analysis:

  • Trade 1 was a uptrend continuation trade. While this wasn't an optimal set-up I got a good low entry and took 50c on the partial and took the runner at break even so this wasn't as big of a win as it should have been. I may have been a little too early on this trade for the bigger move.
  • Trade 2 was a uptrend continuation trade. This was a perfect set-up and I should have sized into it more. We have a top at premarket high with a red candle following on low volume, followed by a period of consolidation on lower volume. We were looking for buyers to come in and move this up past premarket high. This was also the test of the uptrend that we had. I took this trade for 50c, on the partial and then $1 on the rest. I could have left the rest on the table for a little longer but this was still a good trade.
  • Trade 3 (not shown) was a trend reversal continuation short. We had broken premarket high and were consolidating at that level again on lower volume, after a big volume push down. I got in at around premarket high and got a bad fill. However I did hit my target but TOS did not fill me on my limit order. After that, we had a big spike on higher volume so I closed the position on the green candle expecting a bigger move up which did happen. This was a small winner which should have been bigger if TOS executed my order.
  • NOTES: Missed opportunity around 9:40, we are on a strong downtrend and were retesting VWAP on a small pull-up. I was too slow on the trigger and didn't get in short and missed a big move down. 2nd gray arrow as a trend reversal trade after we bounced on the 371-372 level we moved up above VWAP. We came down and tested VWAP on low volume and I tried to get in at 374.32 and didn't get filled.

Lesson moving forward: Continue to use important markers for entries. DON'T HESITATE. Act quickly on trades to get better entries and catch moves.