Premarket: Could not trade yesterday but we had a big move up yesterday, unclear as to the catalyst. We again used the old yearly high level of 4227.25 as a level of consolidation before moving up and topping out near the new yearly high. In the premarket we receiving unemployment numbers which were higher than forecasted which could be the reason we are moving up again. We made a new yearly high at 4156.5, although this was in te premarket. We are starting the day up extended off VWAP and way above the 0pivot, near the +1pivot. The pivots are as follows: 0pivot at 4126.58; +1pivot at 4255.17, +2pivot at 4278.33, -1 pivot at 4193.42, and -2pivot at 4154.83. The market is still very undecided but technically on a macro level we are grinding up slowly still in an ascending channel. If we continue to trend up, I would like a pullback to a significant level to attempt to get in for a breakout, either a retest of VWAP and finding support, or even a break of +1pivot/premarket yearly high at 4256.5, pullback, and a move to highs. The next key levels to the upside are 4287.25 and 4333.5 which are the body of the last weekly peak and the wicks respectively. If we do get a rejection, I want to see a move down below VWAP, retest, and move to 0pivot at 4216.58. There is a lot of room to move to the downside if the market chooses to go that way. Something else of interest I noted was that data candle for the unemployment numbers is a range from 4251 to 4237.
Trade 1: This was a long on what I perceived to be the first pullback on the rocket ship up this morning. The TICK/ADD/VOLD were all screaming long with higher levels than I have seen in a while. This has been moving quickly so I kept my stop tight at the 20 EMA. While I was up around 3 points at one point this hit my stop. Overall, I think this is not a bad trade, just not the proper timing. The only thing I can think of to improve this trade would have been to either wait for the confirmation that we were bouncing and continuing long, or take smaller size and have a higher risk level down to VWAP (which was 10 pts away). Looking back at this - this was a pretty strong rejection at a level, and while the indicators were very strongly green, they started trending down. Likely retail was thinking long and big money took advantage and pushed this lower.
Trade 2: This was looking for a continuous of the red move down, although this is technically a trend reversal trade and that's why I feel so shitty about it. We had found support at the data candle high right below VWAP and bounced pretty quickly on high volume. We then starting finding resistance on the way up so I took the short risking 4265 which was the level of the formation which would cause a break. Looking back this was not a good trade. I should have taken the long around VWAP. While the TICK/ADD/VOLD were trending down they were still significantly green on the day.
Trade 3 was a dumb chase trade - saw the Q's drop and I thought the ES would follow - just a silly trade taken with smaller size. Pretty much pointless.
Overall I was pretty disappointed with my trading today. While the first trade was not too bad, I should have waiting for some sort of confirmation of a long bounce before getting in. We had a strong rejection and a lot of sellers present in forming that new high. The 2nd trade was a poor trade as noted above, and then the 3rd trade was taken for no reason.