Goal of DRC: Identify System Performance amongst Internals first, execution second. Compare those results to my actual performance. Also, see if discretion may have helped or hurt me.
System goal: 10% discretion, 60% system (internals), 30% system (execution)
System (Internals):
Confluence:
Bearish (Weak/possible strong at moments): First: 9:30-9:40. Resumes from 9:58-10:44
Nuance: VOLD and ADD broke back above OP and went bullish for a small period of time before 10:00. Meanwhile Weight went bearish before VOLD ADD which signalled that VOLD and ADD may catch up. For that reason I have my bearish thesis from 9:58 start point rather than when all 3 internals truly went bearish which was at 10:02
System (Execution):
1. (2m candles) HOD Reversal V Shape entry (ignore my actual entries)
Risk: 3.25pts
Reward: 3.5pts
2. (2m candles) HOD reversal V shape entry
Risk: 3.5pts
Reward: 5pts
3. (5m candles) 5m countertrending new H/L entry
Risk: 2 pts
Reward: 3 pts
** this entry is debatable. VOLD and ADD were not making new LOD back to back to I was not considering this as a Strong Bearish at the time. If I am not considering it strong then 5m countertrend entries are not ones I should be taking.
System results:
~8pts
My performance:
1st trade: HOD Reversal (+2)
2nd: Accidental stop out but shouldnt have been shorting anyway (-0.25)
3rd: HOD Reversal (+7)
Results: +9pts
My results compared to system results:
Me: +9
System:+8
My performance was very good today and there was really 1 reason why I outperformed my system and that reason is DISCRETION. I saw that VOLD ADD were moving back bullish but I had zero faith that it would stay that way because ES is on 8th green day which is extremely unlikely to occur, we have been breaking out very ugly this week as shorts get squeezed and longs get trapped at highs. I had no faith in us holding a continuation long so I used a little discretion to somehwat chase the entry on the 3rd reversal trade. I knew that if we were going to go short it was going to happen very very fast so I didnt want to miss out on the potential of a pretty big trade. I got short a little early before 3/3 confirmed and I used full size. I also didnt take profits at the allotted target zone because we had already hit that spot 3 times on the day and I knew that if we got enough sellers we should push through that low for some continuation so I held the trade for the little extra push and got 2 extra points out of it which I am very happy about. This was a great example of using discretion combined with my system to have a little better of a day than my system can account for. I dont want to do this all of the time but only on very specific scenarios where something is likely to occur or unlikely and to have 8 green days in a row is extremely rare as well as continuation of breakout as VOLD opened red and pushed before its small reversal back bullish. In general when VOLD is bouncing around -2 and +2 its mostly neutral anyway so for VOLD to break back to bearish side was no surprise to me whatsoever.
