May 31st, 2023
Rank: B
1. TA
- Very clean intraday continuation today. We had the ADD lead the move with VOLD and TICK helping massively, Sector momentum was clearly to the downside with some buying at open but still heavily red on the day so buying didnt help much. We have 3 trade setups shown above. The first entry is an Open Imbalance https://www.tradejournal.co/post/playbook-open-imbalance/, the second one is an ORB https://www.tradejournal.co/post/playbook-opening-range-breakout/, third is an Intraday Continuation.
- Again sector and depth showing perfect confluence with price action. If you see the middle of the day we actually had a really strong V shape recovery on the ADD and the SPY was putting in higher lows while riding at the bottom attempting to pull in more shorts when the move was clearly already exhausted. It worked well because we moved about 30 points off the lows from LOD to HOD. The ADD was a perfect indicator here for that reason. It even helped me exit my trade when I was looking for the break of LOD because the SPY was hitting new lows while the ADD was making higher lows. This was a clear sign that selling is exhausted and the divergence between SPY and ADD is obvious.
2. Trade Review
- I got short 3 times today. The first entry was a small continuation trade which I scalped way too fast and shouldve waited to see if we hit LOD. I got about 2 points on that trade when I shouldve gotten about 5 with perfect execution. The 2nd trade I basically just gave back profits from first small scalp. Third trade I got shorta gain and was able to add into it for the break to new LOD. This trade was about a 5 point winner with 2 contracts which was a nice little base hit win. I left my computer after that and about an hour later I realized that I left a sitting limit order in the market and I got filled which in turn deleted about half of my profits on the day just because of a stupid little mistake. Lacking 100% focus seems to be a recurring issue for me.
Ideas: A+
- I had the right idea today to go short. I entered the market with zero objective and zero bias. I was going to let the market do its thing and I was going to react to the price action. This is a big difference from my stupidity yesterday where I decided to go for reversals all day with zero reason to do so other than "this is a key level". That type of trading is only for people who have no clue what is going on and I should not be grouped into that same bucket of traders. I realized after the close yesterday how stupid that was and I meditated on it for a while this morning to make sure that I am 100% only reactionary and not predictive. I achieved that today but then I made a stupid mistake to wipe out most of my profits. That is something that is clearly avoidable and its partly due to the fact that I have a new broker but still that is very annoying.
Execution: C
- The first trade exit was too early, the second trade entry was too early, third trade had near perfect execution other than the entry being just a tad bit too late. Had I been about 2 points higher in the first entry perhaps I couldve added up to 3 or 4 contracts instead of only having 2. This setup clearly was asking for some more size but since I was already a little late to the party I was very ready to take profits at attempted break to LOD. Especially since ADD was making higher lows I knew that the market would eventually do the same.
May 17th, 2023
Rank: A+++
1. TA/Strat
- The opening range breakout to the downside did not work today but there was a clean consolidation above that level for a clean 30 point breakout mid day. This is a weird and unique example of combining an ORB with intraday continuation as well as a trend day. Entry on that level for the continuation through yesterdays high wouldve been a massive trade. Sadly today was the first day all week where I finally let the chop do its thing without me and then this is the price action I left behind. I need to stay longer if I want to be able to catch these trades. I need to stop thinking so emotionally and be more objective about the whole process of the day. If there is a clean setup you take it and dont confuse every trade with intraday continuation.
- Super obvious and clear VOLD continuation to upside and ADD continuation to upside as well as TICK holding above zero nearly all day. Wouldve been such an easy trade had I not been thinking logically and instead acted like a robot and followed the system.
- This is the 30m wedge and we had a clear break of that level intraday that also aligned with previous day high and the ORB. We consolidated above that wedge for about a half hour while the VOLD ADD TICK all got stronger and stronger and while the sectors did the same. We had an insane breakout over that zone and that trade was so clear and obvious I am so bummed I completely missed it.
May 16th, 2023
Rank:
1. TA/Strategy
- There were a ton of different trends in the VOLD ADD today
- Although the trend was mostly down on the depth, the risk was clearly on in terms of the sectors.
- Tons of random little trends.
2. Review
- In each of these trades I was doing 1 thing specifically. I was trying to identify the trend of the depth and seeing when the trend was clearn and I was trying to take continuation trades on those levels. As you can see we had hardly any continuation throughout the entire day and we pretty much ranged disgustingly for the entire session until PACW decided to blow up at the end of the day lol.
Trade #1
Ideas: We were trending to the upsidea t this point. Yes the TICK is below zero heavily but we were trending in an upwards direction for about the first 1.5 hours. I think getting long was definitely the right idea in this exact moment. Yes It was a little sketchy because the TICK was still below zero and yes we were uptrending but still had this massive move that had just happened that was clearly downtrending and the VOLD was pretty largely negative. I think that going long or short today was pretty much about 30% skill 70% luck so I got a little lucky here after identifying a clear trend and going with it. I think again this is a pretty great example of a D setup where yes we have trends in VOLD ADD but TICK is still red, VOLD is still heavily red on ES, Market is flat. This is kinda like following and fighting the trend at the same time.
Execution: I did this nicely where I took profits before a huge drop because opening price was right there. I also took my entry right at the ORB. As I am writing this I just realized this was actually an Opening Range Hold trade and not an intraday continuation. woops. I knew I screwed something up. Well yes, ORH worked nicely here because we got back into the opening range and then pulled back to the 30m low on OR and then bounced nicely. Damn that was actually a great example of an opening range hold. Fucked this up my b.
Trade #2: This trade occurred within the same white bubbles in the example above.
Ideas: Well I went long going with the trend but got stopped out at the very bottom before watching it rip to exactly my planned exit. I tried to get another entry right at the ORB again for the ORH and intraday continuation (eh) but my execution was off by a lot.
Execution: Yea I shouldve waited a little longer like when it started to move back up to get long but that seems even more sketchy. The only thing pointing to this trade working is the fact that ADD VOLD were trending higher, SPY was trending lower though, Sectors were trending up but again, market was so choppy I shouldve avoided this altogether.
Trade #3: happened in same area on VOLD ADD TICK as previous ex
Idea: I got short here and was fighting the trend of the VOLD ADD and sectors so I just stopped out fast for minimal loss. Its funny cuz my original target wouldve gotten hit but damn bro I really should not have traded any of this price action. its so disgusting.
Execution: At least I had that gut feeling I was going to lose and I just got out for a super small loss instead of holding for some big drawdown. I am proud I was able to identify that early and make the loss minimal.
UPDATES:
Strategy: If the VOLD ADD TICK and sectors are all trending in the same direction then I will find key levels to get long/short.
1. Identify a trend in VOLD ADD TICK.
2. Are the Sectors following the same direction as the Depth?
3. Identify key levels
4. Trade the reactions off those levels looking for key targets and tight stops
Example:
Step 1: Are VOLD ADD TICK trending together?
The VOLD for NQ and ES are both trending higher with clear higher highs and higher lows. After starting the day rough the ADD found a nice V and ripped past its previous lower high to flip the trend to the long side and it never looked back. The TICK is clearly green for the vast majority of the day until about 2pm. Since these are all trending up we want to see the sectors have a risk on attitude.
Step 2: Are the sectors Risk On? (matching the VOLD ADD TICK)
- Clear as day the sectors were risk on. Every risk off sector was red and every risk on sector was green. The ES is the only red value because I am writing this post after 6pm so its a new session and its down 0.01%. It was up 0.2% on the day today. Even financials were massively up on the day. That is a big sign that we are probably moving higher. The financials are extremely sensitive right now given regional bank failures. When they move the market listens.
Step 3: Identfiy key intraday levels
1. Premarket H/L
2. Previous day H/L
3. Previous day close
4. Opening price
5. Opening range H/L
6. Key 30m S/R & Channels
1. This is an accumulation above the previous day close while every single sector and every single indicator was point upwards. This wouldve been a high conviction setup because of the fact that literally everything was trending higher and when I say everything I do mean everything. This is an A+ trade based on the consolidation above PDC, Confluence of all VOLD ADD TICK Sectors, Broke back above the OR nearly immediately and then broke the 9ema only a few time on the way up to PDC. The big flush at PDC previously has been bought up back to back to back and there are smaller consecutive higher highs and higher lows. The profit target could be the opening price at 9:30. That wouldve been perfect. 4 contracts on an A+ setup and that wouldve yielded about 6 points or $120. I think when everything is trending like that it is for sure worth it. Stop would be below the previous bar low which was only 2 points away so $40 risk. That was the best trade of the mid day session.
2. This is a big breakdown scalp on the opening price. Id consider this a D setup at best because you are fading the momentum to the long side on the depth and sectors. If you did scalp this though it wouldve been a nice move. That is why you only use 1 contract on a D setup though. No need to risk a rip back to highs with 4 contracts.
3 & 4. These are both just trend continuation higher low setups based on the 30m OR. We reclaim the opening price and hold above vwap after finding huge buyers there before in the random 20 point drop that happened. Then we moved past highs again. These are C setups because the momentum is still clearly to the upside but the R is not great up here after setting in a HOD as strong resistance. You are still going with the trend though so its worth it to use at least 2 contracts.
Other opps Examples of an Open Imbalance
1. Fundamentals
- At the open there was a much more negative sentiment than positive. We were moving lower in nearly all sectors off the open except for WAL and PACW being green as well as BAC and JPM. AAPL was moving lower as well as KRE NQ.
- Even the VOLD on ES and NQ was trending lower after the opening print price. The ADD was moving strongly lower TICK also trending down.
2. Strategy
- the 30m opening range did not work today but the 15m opening range did. If you played the 15m opening range instead of the 30m opening range then you wouldve had 2 extremely nice trades here. I think that when the price action is trending one way but the VOLD opens the opposite and so does TICK there is still a chance to get a nice short trade in while the trend still hasnt yet flipped to follow the VOLD. When things are trending in one direction in the first 15m and you are looking for continuation you need to pay attention to the 15m as a key level to risk from.
May 15th, 2023
PERFECT example of how to NOT trade. This is a beautiful flaw in my system. When I have more than 20 indicators/tickers shooting up and I am shorting, that is a fundamental problem that must be fixed IMMEDIATELY. There is zero room for idiots in the stock market. If you are giving into discretion more than a system you will lose. It is not complicated.
Rank:
1. Fundamentals:
- There were 3 trades here where I attempted to go for continuation and each made sense but the 2nd and 3rd trades were "continuation" if you are looking at the 30m cuz we did not make a higher high on the day, the first 1 was possibly a "reversal" again depending on the timeframe you look at. As I stated in my ORB playbok for this day, we had CLEAR momentum to the long side after the first 30m happened. The ORB was pretty much just a short trap then the algos were turned on and shooting us back to the upside. XLF was up on the day, PACW WAL were up HUGE. BAC and JPM also up huge. again DONT FUCKING SHORT THE MARKET WHEN THE MOST SENSITIVE SECTOR IN THE ENTIRE US STOCK MARKET IS HEAVILY GREEN ON THE DAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2. TA
- The market opened and WAL PACW BAC JPM all up huge on the day. This was odd because the SPY was down and moving fast lower. Meanwhile the banks still just slowly grinded back higher.
- Again VOLD ADD TICK moving very strong once the bottom was put in
- All sectors grinding green. literally every single sector.
- looking at this chart would you say risk is on or off? hmm i think its on LOL
- Again
- This was the weird part of the day that sucked me into a short mid day. We fakeout the ORB with a gross move down then rip back higher after reclaiming it. Then we get back to vwap immedaitely and I saw multiple spikes through HOD then immediately falling back down. I thought that maybe this price action would yield a bigger drop if the spikes to HOD were all sold into massively. This was my fatal flaw. IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT THE PRICE ACTION IS DOING ON THE 500 LARGEST COMPANIES IN THE WORLD ACROSS EVERY SINGLE SECTOR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Price action is only half of the story and the fact that everytime it spiked HOD and came right back that is a reason to be BULLISH not bearish.
3. Review
- This is just embarassing trading
Ideas: D- (only reason its not an F is because I flipped bias to go long after first 2 losses. The remaining 2 shorts after that though are clearly terrible trades and they knock my score back down very heavily.
- I had the right idea to flip long after fucking up the first 2 shorts and losing a good chunk on the ORB. I got in and had to market out because TS failed on me which is somewhat hilarious given that I decided to go short shortly after that and nonetheless 2 times I went for it LOL. So bad. The first long was actually a good trade because I was ready to flip my bias and just follow the trend which worked. I have absolutely no idea what the fuck made me think that we were gonna go short other than the fact that there were wicks at HOD multiple times HAHAHHAHAHAHA. THAT IS SO FUCKING STUPID HAHAHHA. Dont do that again please u stupid fucking retail cunt.
Execution: F
- Yep again terrible execution as well. I got short at a low then got spiked out at HOD. Then I chased the shorta gain and lost because I am an idiot. The long I had to stop out of with a market order because TS died on me. I shouldve only looked for longs once I lost on the 4th trade going short. That was so disgusting I am embarassed that I even thought for a second that going short was a good idea. So stupid of me. I couldve stopped out for a way smaller loss too on the last trade of the day. Instead I took the Max L because I was being stubborn.
Mindset:
- Again gross. Got really angry when I lost on the last trade because it seemed like it was just a big trap but i need to learn that traps are everywhere and everything in this market and the purpose of them is to WAIT FOR THEM TO HAPPEN. I should not be trying to predict traps I should simply be trying to play the momentum of the trap. I dont understand how I am this long into trading and I still see 25 indicators/tickers moving in a direction and my retarded ass mindset is "yeah lets fade that move" HAHHAHAHAHAHA. Bro how fucking stupid could you possibly be???????? Do you want to be a failed retail trader who cries at the market forever because it was too hard for you to understand? I couldve so easily just followed the momentum and let the fucking trades work for me instead of fighting trillions of dollars but here we are.
May 13th, 2023
Rank: B
1. Fundamentals:
- We have been stuck in a range from CPI day and made 2 consecutive lower highs from that level while bouncing around the anchored vwap. At the open we seemed somewaht bullish since we moved a lot higher off of yesterdays low. Right when the market opened we had strong selling though.
2. TA/Strategy
- As the market opened the VOLD was weakening and the ADD was moving very strongly to the downside. XLF was also moving a lot lower with TICK putting in a lot of values below 0.
- Once the sentiment was shifted to the negative side we had so many clean opps to get short.
- Each of these setups get successively worse and worse as the day goes on. The best setup by far was the ORB. After that we had a few lower highs that continued downwards but the entry points wouldve been very very difficult. The best part of doing intraday continuation though is that if you are truly in a trend, edge is present if you simply GO WITH THE TREND. So you can execute these trades somewhat poorly and still make money on them. I am not sure if I wouldve been able to catch anything after the 3rd lower high but on those first 3 I think if I was patient and scalping I couldve probably been in them and made at least 5 points.
May 10th, 2023
Rank: B
1. Fundamentals'
- Today is CPI day and it was exact expectations. We had a clean rally in the beginning of the day and then it failed epicly with strong volume at the open. My goal was to follow this continuation to the downside.
2. Technicals
1d:2m
- Massive move lower at the open.
- As we broke out from CPI data we pushed perfectly off the JWAP. This was also a clean downtrending channel breakout continuation trade. The only problem is that once we broke that high from the descending channel, the entire move got faded heavily.
- These were the 3 cleanest opportunities to short the continuation of the downtrend.We had small pullups with clear strong selling momentum that occurred right before the pullup, pulllups occur on weak volume, trendline is made, trendline is broken by having a 2m candle closure below those levels, then it broke down each time.
3. Trade Review
Ideas:C
- I was totally wrong to go long up where I did for my first trade. The volume was so strong and there seemed to be zero selling so I was thinking that we would just rip back up to to HOD. We didnt do that but luckily I stopped out pretty fast for only a 4 point loss.
- When the ADD looks like this you do NOT go long. This is very extreme selling and yes CPI is supposed to be bullish but the ADD tells so much and when its doing shit like this its just silly to think for even a second to go bullish. Luckily after I took that L I was ready to get back in and short the lower highs. I took 3 more trades all short and 2 were winners 1 was a loser. The loser was a very good area to short and I stopped out correctly without having to hold through a large drawdown. I had the right idea for those 3 trades but not for the first so ill give myself a 75% on Ideas. Thats a C
Execution:
- Execution was actually really good today. I stopped out of the first trade fast with minimal losses, second trade wa sa big winner and I covered perfectly at the attempted break of 4138. Third trade was a loser but a very tight one that made perfect sense to stop out on. Fourth one was a clean break and 2m candle closure below the 9ema and I just jumped in for the lower high continuation. The only thing I wish I wouldve done differently is hold my last trade to a larger target. Although, taking those profits and then reassessing once I already locked it in is probably a lot smarter than trying to hold 1 entry and 1 exit throughout the entire move.
Mindset:
- I was a little annoyed when I lost the first trade but I came back and made the right decisions after that mistake. That is a great sign of strong mental fortitude.
May 8th, 2023
Rank: C
1. Fundamentals
- The market was choppy with no real continuation. We had a break of the low of day and then an immedaite rip back to the upside. Once that move occurred I thought that exhaustion of the move was likely given that CPI is in 2 days and normally we will lack continuation and once the buyers were exhausted we should range back down. This trade was intented to be only a scalp and not a break through the LOD for a massive continuation trade.
2. Technicals
1d:5m
- Here is the LOD break and the immediate rip back to the upside (green arrow). Here is the exhaustion and lower high from the open imbalance trade.
Depth:
- VOLD on NQ and ES were both decreasing, ADD was also making an attempt for the LOD, TICK was ranging. The number one thing here is the ADD. Since the market is ranging given CPI is in 2 days, ADD will tell more of the story compared to VOLD and TICK because larger players are probably not participating anyways so VOLD is going to be weak in either direction and so will the TICK.
3. Trade Review:
MES 2m
Trade Idea: B
- The idea was that we are going to get a lower high for continuation to the downside but I was not expecting true continuation, just a break down back to a new higher low on the day since a range is the most likely scenario. I was prepared for the move and waiting for it. I did enter 1 time too early and stopped out while re-entering at the same exact spot which I hate doing so I think that was a little silly but I was protecting myself from the opening range being tested back to the upside again. The only thing I dont like about this trade is the fact that we were in the direct center of the opening range and taking any trades in the middle of a range is going to lower the probabilty by a decent amount. Since the overall trend on the day was still down, shorting was definitely the move if any trade was going to be taken at the middle of the opening range.
Execution: C
- I did enter early 1 time and re-entered at the same spot which I hate but given that the fear was that we broke back to opening range high, I think that was a good thing to stop out. I couldve wiped out all the profits on the day had I held and we broke back above 4156 (new higher high on the day). I jumped right back in without any real confirmation other than the ADD was trying to break down to new LOD which honestly I think is enough since ADD is really the best indicator for immediate price action movement. Since I had an early execution and messed up the first trade Ill give myself a C. I think that waiting for the small uptrend to actually break back to the downside was probably a lot smarter than just shorting the clean uptrend. See Below:
- I think waiting for this break to occur first is probably the better way to approach this trade instead of just shorting off a feeling like I did. Sometimes intuition is great and works well but for me personally I am such an analytical person I have to know WHY for every trade or it just feels wrong. This little dumb trendline break may have helped my get my "why." Next time ill wait for that instead.
Mindset: A
- I was calm and collected with my trading on this strategy. I was a little too eager and scalpy on the first entry but I think for this specific strategy its totally worth it to be that way. There was no fomo and I was ready to get in and get the hell out. I wasnt angry when I lost on the first trade I was just sitting and waiting for the next opportunity with zero care about the outcome. That is how it should always be done.
1. Fundamentals
- FOMC was yesterday we had a massive downtrend following JP speech. After hours we had a 40 point drop fueled by fears of regional banking failures. WAL PACW both were down substantially. When the market opened we had already set a clean lower high in the premarket after a nice 40 point rally from the low of after hours yesterday. XLF opened the day down about 1% with volatility moving very high.
2. Technicals
- VOLD opened red and was steadily decreasing into the -2s. ADD was selling off huge at the open which is the best indicator for short term price movement that I have found. TICK was holding below zero putting in a lot of -600 values
10d:30m
- As you can see we have a clear 30m downchannel and we have a clean lower high formation in the premarket. We have a massive selloff from FOMC then a nice bounce off the lows only to be met with even more sellers.
3. Strategy
1d:5m
- This bear flag formation was a clean spot to get in for the continuation of the micro trend. The exit was based on a few criterium
10d:30m
- This spot was a clear take profit spot because we had a 30m key level of the previous higher low. This spot is a massive zone because if we do overtake this to the downside that is a ton of bull volume disappeared in a pretty short period of time. If we hold this level then back to 4200 we go.
4. Trade Review
