UPDATED DAILY AT MARKET OPEN

Macro Risk Indicator

Is today safe to trade? Check the macro factors that move markets before risking your capital.

Fed Meetings FOMC Tracking
Earnings Season Big Tech Dates
Market Holidays Low Volume Days
VIX Levels Volatility Check
Check Today's Risk Score

What is the Macro Risk Indicator?

Think of it as a Fear & Greed Index specifically designed for day traders. While the CNN Fear & Greed Index measures market sentiment, our Macro Risk Indicator (MRI) focuses on scheduled macro events that create predictable trading risk.

Every trading day is not created equal. FOMC announcement days can see 2-3% SPY moves in minutes. Days before holidays have thin volume and erratic price action. Earnings season brings sector-wide volatility. Smart traders know to check the macro calendar before they trade.

The MRI consolidates all these factors into a single 0-100 score updated daily before market open, so you can instantly know if today is a day to trade aggressively, cautiously, or not at all.

Check Today's MRI Learn More
Sample Risk Gauge
25 LOW RISK
0
Minimal 50
Moderate 100
Extreme

5 Macro Factors We Track

Each factor is weighted based on its historical impact on day trading performance

Federal Reserve

30% Weight

FOMC meetings, Fed Chair speeches, interest rate decisions, and monetary policy announcements. These are the highest-impact events for equity markets.

  • FOMC days: Extreme risk 2pm-4pm
  • 3 days before: Elevated caution
  • Day after: Continuation moves

VIX Volatility

25% Weight

Real-time VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) levels indicate current market fear. Higher VIX means wider spreads, faster moves, and more stop-outs.

  • VIX <15: Calm, normal trading
  • VIX 20-30: Reduce position size
  • VIX >40: Consider sitting out

Earnings Season

20% Weight

Quarterly earnings peaks (Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct) bring elevated volatility across sectors. Big Tech earnings especially move the entire market.

  • FAANG weeks: High sector risk
  • Peak earnings: 2nd-3rd week
  • After-hours gaps common

Market Holidays

15% Weight

Days surrounding market holidays have reduced institutional participation. This creates low liquidity traps and erratic price action that catches retail traders off guard.

Markets Closed
  • New Year's Day
  • MLK Day, Presidents Day
  • Good Friday, Memorial Day
  • July 4th, Labor Day
  • Thanksgiving, Christmas
Open But Risky
  • Veterans Day (low volume)
  • Friday before Monday holidays
  • Half days (1pm close)
  • Week between Xmas & NY

Economic Releases

10% Weight

Major economic data releases from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) can move markets significantly, especially when numbers surprise to the upside or downside.

High Impact
  • Non-Farm Payrolls (1st Fri)
  • CPI/PPI Inflation
  • GDP Reports
  • Retail Sales
Medium Impact
  • Jobless Claims (Thursdays)
  • ISM Manufacturing
  • Consumer Confidence
  • Housing Data

How to Use the Macro Risk Indicator

Adjust your trading approach based on the daily risk score

0-20
Minimal Risk

Clear skies for trading. No major macro events on the calendar.

Trading Strategy:
  • Full position sizes
  • Normal stop distances
  • All strategies viable
  • Great for scaling in
21-40
Low Risk

Minor events ahead. Stay aware but trade normally.

Trading Strategy:
  • Normal position sizes
  • Check economic calendar
  • Be aware of time zones
  • Avoid holding into events
41-60
Moderate Risk

Notable events approaching. Exercise caution.

Trading Strategy:
  • Reduce size by 25%
  • Tighter stops
  • Quick scalps preferred
  • Close before events
61-80
High Risk

Major macro events imminent. High volatility expected.

Trading Strategy:
  • Cut position size by 50%
  • No overnight holds
  • Avoid first 30 mins
  • Consider paper trading
81-100
Extreme Risk

FOMC day, major crisis, or multiple high-impact events. Danger zone.

Trading Strategy:
  • Consider not trading
  • If trading: 25% max size
  • Widen stops or use options
  • Great day to review journal

Frequently Asked Questions

Common questions about the Macro Risk Indicator

A Macro Risk Indicator (MRI) is a composite score that measures overall market risk based on macroeconomic factors like Federal Reserve meetings, earnings seasons, market holidays, VIX volatility levels, and economic data releases. It helps day traders identify high-risk days when they should reduce position sizes or avoid trading altogether. TradeJournal's MRI uses a 0-100 scale where 0 is minimal risk and 100 is extreme risk.

The Macro Risk Indicator calculates a weighted score from five key factors:

  • Fed Events (30% weight) - FOMC meetings, speeches
  • Market Volatility/VIX (25% weight) - Current fear levels
  • Earnings Season (20% weight) - Quarterly peaks
  • Holiday Proximity (15% weight) - Low volume days
  • Economic Releases (10% weight) - CPI, jobs reports

Each factor considers both the impact level and time proximity - events happening today have 3.5x more impact than events a week away. The final score is a weighted average capped at 100.

Not necessarily avoid, but adjust your strategy.

  • On high-risk days (60-80): Reduce position sizes by 50% and use tighter stops
  • On extreme risk days (80-100): Most pro day traders either sit out or trade with minimal size
  • On low-risk days (0-40): Generally favorable for normal trading

The indicator helps you calibrate risk, not dictate whether to trade. Some traders thrive in volatility - the MRI helps you know when that volatility is coming.

They measure different things:

CNN Fear & Greed Index measures market sentiment using 7 indicators like stock price momentum, junk bond demand, and put/call ratios. It tells you how the market feels right now.

TradeJournal's Macro Risk Indicator focuses on scheduled macro events that create predictable trading risk - Fed meetings, holidays, earnings announcements. It tells you what calendar risks are ahead.

Professional day traders use both together. Fear & Greed for sentiment context, MRI for event awareness.

TradeJournal's Macro Risk Indicator updates automatically every day at 12:01 AM Eastern Time, before markets open. This ensures you always have fresh risk data when planning your trading day. Historical scores are archived so you can analyze patterns over time and correlate risk levels with your own trading performance.

Market holidays create trading risk in several ways:

  1. Days before holidays have reduced volume and liquidity, making price movements more erratic
  2. Some holidays like Veterans Day keep markets open but with minimal institutional participation - a trap for retail traders
  3. Bridge days (Friday before a Monday holiday) often see profit-taking and position squaring
  4. After holidays, gaps can occur from overnight/weekend news

Our MRI tracks all US market holidays, observed holidays, and bridge days with varying impact weights.

  • VIX under 15: Calm markets, low risk
  • VIX 15-20: Normal market conditions
  • VIX 20-30: Elevated volatility, reduce size
  • VIX above 30: High-risk, cut size significantly
  • VIX above 40: Extreme fear (crashes), consider sitting out

TradeJournal's Macro Risk Indicator incorporates real-time VIX data and adjusts the overall risk score accordingly.

FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meetings are among the highest-impact events for day traders:

  • FOMC announcement days (typically 2:00 PM ET): Markets can move 2-3% in either direction within minutes
  • 3 days before FOMC: Reduced volatility as traders wait
  • Day after FOMC: Continuation or reversal moves common

Our Macro Risk Indicator assigns Fed events the highest weight (30%) and amplifies scores significantly on announcement days. Track your FOMC performance in your journal to see how you handle these days.

Why Check MRI Before You Trade

Professional traders don't gamble with macro risk

Avoid Blown Accounts

Most account blowups happen on high-volatility macro days. Knowing the risk level before you trade is your first line of defense.

Trade Smarter

Adjust position sizes and strategies based on objective data, not gut feelings. Let the MRI inform your trading journal entries.

Plan Ahead

See upcoming high-risk days in advance. Schedule vacations, plan your best trading days, and avoid getting blindsided.

Improve Your Trading With TradeJournal

Explore our resources to become a more profitable trader

Why TradeJournal is Best

Discover why 12,000+ traders choose us: AI pattern detection, broker imports, and the Macro Risk Indicator

Free Trading Journal Template

Start journaling for free with our Excel/Google Sheets template. Track trades and correlate with MRI scores

Free $300 Onboarding Call

Every plan includes a free 20-minute call with a pro trader to set up your journal and MRI alerts

Day Trading Journal Guide

Learn how to journal day trades effectively and use the MRI to improve your win rate

Support & FAQ

Have questions about the Macro Risk Indicator? Our support team is here to help

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Free feature - no signup required • Updated daily at market open • Fed, holidays, earnings, VIX